Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs looks pretty similar so far through 30hr 

[JC-CT]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs looks pretty similar so far through 30hr 

i agree. we are honing in

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Maybe a hair less amped at 36

[ORH_wxman]

Might be making up some ground at 39 hours....looks like the low is not hugging the convection as much this run....we'll see in next frame.

[dryslot]

Late curl so it ends up a tic or so west of 06z, What i don't like seeing is the delay in intensification, Its happening once its getting a little further north then east.

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Might be making up some ground at 39 hours....looks like the low is not hugging the convection as much this run....we'll see in next frame.

out to 51, it's really quite similar to 6z

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

Not too shabby...  seems reasonable...

mm I thought this storm had a reasonable chance be more prolific than that - full disclosure    :/
 

[CoastalWx]

A hair better than 6z, not much change.

[IowaStorm05]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z GFS looks to be ticking slightly less amped than 6z through 30 hours.

2 inches of snow. It offers 2 inches. That’s bogus man. I hate that. It’s a red flag 

of course I got up this morning to a 7 inch 06z NAM after that offered me one inch.

this is not an easy system to predick and frankly I’m doubting they’ll even know 6 hours in advance what it will do 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

A little tick but still meh overall.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Garbage outside SE zones and not really much outside outer Cape . Later development is killing this 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah we're talking very minor changes in the end...it did make a late bid to tick west, but really not of much consequence. It still wants to follow the convection...we really need that vort to curl north and capture this thing....close to what some of the mesos are doing.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

2 inches of snow. It offers 2 inches. That’s bogus man. I hate that. It’s a red flag 

Go for a walk.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm I thought this storm storm had a reasonable chance be more prolific than that - full disclosure    :/
 

Likewise.

[IowaStorm05]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Go for a walk.

A walk? No this is a scenario that requires doing 80 on the freeway, in the wrong direction, on ice.

It’s ridiculous, atrocious, outrageous.

just kidding.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm I thought this storm storm had a reasonable chance be more prolific than that - full disclosure    :/
 

For NS as the mid levels close off. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we're talking very minor changes in the end...it did make a late bid to tick west, but really not of much consequence. It still wants to follow the convection...we really need that vort to curl north and capture this thing....close to what some of the mesos are doing.

yeah, the difference in the location of the best forcing between the rgem and the nam/gfs is pretty crazy. even between the 12km/3km is pretty big.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Go for a walk.

And cross a busy highway with eyes closed?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Garbage outside SE zones and not really much outside outer Cape . Later development is killing this 

The low today is killing this storm chance

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm I thought this storm storm had a reasonable chance be more prolific than that - full disclosure    :/
 

Yeah… Scott will be in to scold you shortly 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Garbage outside SE zones and not really much outside outer Cape . Later development is killing this 

My favorite nuance is the hole of less than 2" over NE MA.

[SJonesWX]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Go for a walk.

long walk, short pier?

[dryslot]

996-100mb SLP's when its at our lat is not going to cut it when the storm is 150-200 miles offshore.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah… Scott will be in to scold you shortly 

Why?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

long walk, short pier?

[PhineasC]

The upslope regions in NNE end up doing better than SNE on the snow maps. LOL

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Garbage outside SE zones and not really much outside outer Cape . Later development is killing this 

This has been a subtle trend. Any tic west is offset by later development 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Why?

. 
 

for lamenting that this could have been better than currently modeled.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

. 
 

for lamenting that this could have been better than currently modeled.

I'm not changing my tune at the moment. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This has been a subtle trend. Any tic west is offset by later development 

Don’t worry…You will still snow and crack a smile for a very brief moment.