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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Let’s see how fast the best model can go from acting like it has a handle on a system to schitting itself . Meaning all Track options on table , don’t get sucked in quite so fast. We pray 

This thing is still 5 days out. Getting closer to more trust-worthy model lead time but I’d really wait another 2-3 cycles before getting confident. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BM track seeming most likely 

pick somewhere in the middle, and we all enjoy the fun somewhat... I'm not wholely bought in until Wednesday, but I believe this one has the most going for it than the others, and for some time now it's been a sig, so we do pray... Will, are we looking at a phase cutoff here or Nrn or srn dominant? hard to tell at this point...

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1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

pick somewhere in the middle, and we all enjoy the fun somewhat... I'm not wholely bought in until Wednesday, but I believe this one has the most going for it than the others, and for some time now it's been a sig, so we do pray... Will, are we looking at a phase cutoff here or Nrn or srn dominant? hard to tell at this point...

It’s all northern stream. We also don’t have a big western ridge yet when this storm happens so the flow is going to be pretty progressive…which will be competing with no downstream blocking. It will be a fast mover it looks like. 

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s all northern stream. We also don’t have a big western ridge yet when this storm happens so the flow is going to be pretty progressive…which will be competing with no downstream blocking. It will be a fast mover it looks like. 

Thanks, what I figured, seems to be a running theme with storms here lately, minus a few that were slow, cutoff, retrograde storms, it seems most out coastal storms are like 12 hr blitz types.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that didn’t happen. But at least after next weekend (specifically 10th on) looks to have legs. This next storm could be meh so I’m not invested at the moment. 

Yeah regardless of 1/7, the pattern legit looks deep winter after that. Obviously getting a good system on 1/7 first is optimal, but it’s hard to see how we don’t get a lot of good chances beyond that unless guidance is clueless. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah regardless of 1/7, the pattern legit looks deep winter after that. Obviously getting a good system on 1/7 first is optimal, but it’s hard to see how we don’t get a lot of good chances beyond that unless guidance is clueless. 

Where have we seen this before?  Hint, it was a month ago.

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Where have we seen this before?  Hint, it was a month ago.

Totally different pattern though. Not really analogous except in the loose sense that guidance could be wrong on the setup…but with a huge western ridge, it’s pretty unlikely we end up warm….unlike the extremely deep RNA trough where we ended up mostly on the wrong side of the gradient plus all those systems getting shredded during the times we were cold enough for snow. 

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah regardless of 1/7, the pattern legit looks deep winter after that. Obviously getting a good system on 1/7 first is optimal, but it’s hard to see how we don’t get a lot of good chances beyond that unless guidance is clueless. 

Really? I thought it Looks like poo second half of month and into Feb. Back to -pna with a se ridge without atl blocking. 

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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Totally different pattern though. Not really analogous except in the loose sense that guidance could be wrong on the setup…but with a huge western ridge, it’s pretty unlikely we end up warm….unlike the extremely deep RNA trough where we ended up mostly on the wrong side of the gradient plus all those systems getting shredded during the times we were cold enough for snow. 

Sure, it's a different setup.  But models were brutally bad at predicting the pattern with the RNA.  They kept trying to break it down too fast, meanwhile the RNA got stronger.  Hopefully this is a more predictable/stable pattern but that remains to be seen and I'm skeptical until the results are within realty range.

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Sure, it's a different setup.  But models were brutally bad at predicting the pattern with the RNA.  They kept trying to break it down too fast, meanwhile the RNA got stronger.  Hopefully this is a more predictable/stable pattern but that remains to be seen and I'm skeptical until the results are within realty range.

The RNA was always predicted, it just ended up a lot deeper than originally forecast. This one could fail too but it would probably take a larger model error because there’s more wiggle room when you have a western ridge. 

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