CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure you can discern any sustained trend from the Antonio Brown of the NWP suite. I'm dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I will say that the 3km NAM seems to align pretty well with the 06z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure you can discern any sustained trend from the Antonio Brown of the NWP suite. That Burfict hit may have loosened several screws 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will say that the 3km NAM seems to align pretty well with the 06z EURO. There's definitely still more spread in guidance (and ensembles) than usual for 2 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 "I'm free Gammmaaa!!" 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I’m waiting for 12z UK and others but 06z show were getting a lot of snow. Like a bunch. High end advisory low end warning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, IowaStorm05 said: I’m waiting for 12z UK and others but 06z show were getting a lot of snow. Like a bunch. Another model with CTE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, IowaStorm05 said: I’m waiting for 12z UK and others but 06z show were getting a lot of snow. Like a bunch. I wouldn't wait one second for the UKMET. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure you can discern any sustained trend from the Antonio Brown of the NWP suite. When there isn't a discernable trend for several runs and there is also inter-model agreement, then we might be getting close to the final outcome. Antonio Brown would be congrats Buffalo one run and then what storm? the next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Happens every time, but if you drop a 6-12" range, everyone perceives it as a forecast for a regionwide 12" lol 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's definitely still more spread in guidance (and ensembles) than usual for 2 days out. More spread that any typical day, sure. But I would argue less spread than usual with a shortwave of that sharpness and implied sensitivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Another model with CTE. Unfortunately, we'll never be able to properly diagnose it until its decomissioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Not too shabby... seems reasonable... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 What we all really need is a monster shift on the 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said: Not too shabby... seems reasonable... I see a small 4-6 circle over Ginxys head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, DavisStraight said: I see a small 4-6 circle over Ginxys head. That's well south of him, okx did that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, DavisStraight said: I see a small 4-6 circle over Ginxys head. I think he is north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Not too shabby... seems reasonable... Bad map. By tonite they’ll have 4-8” back past CTRV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 If folks keep tossing we won't have any models left. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That Burfict hit may have loosened several screws Maybe Brady can invite it into his home and Guerrero can give it a deep rub down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Not too shabby... seems reasonable... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 you could say reggie is not quite as good but it's still decent and pretty similar. it should go without saying, but nobody should be expecting a regionwide 12" storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Actually then he is in the 4-6, I didn't see that yellow as 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: If folks keep tossing we won't have any models left. I'm not sure how you can take the NAM seriously after that 00z-06z-12z sequence. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, DavisStraight said: Actually then he is in the 4-6, I didn't see that yellow as 6-8. true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yea, unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 RGEM crushes here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Not too shabby... seems reasonable... Looks too generous in CT. I'd cut those in half and knock an inch or two off RI and SEMA. Hopefully we double those tomorrow, but there's not enough support for big numbers right now IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure how you can take the NAM seriously after that 00z-06z-12z sequence. I'm not even taking the RGEM seriously either until its inside 24hrs and that's a reach, It has been horrendous all year this year and the past 3 or 4 yrs and finally catches on the last 24 hrs when who cares. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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