Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Sugarloaf1989]

8 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

It’s January 5 the angle is hardly different than the shortest day. It’s not March 15 or feb 2

nivht is always better tho 

It's in jest to Torchtiger.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Not ideal 

[EastonSN+]

Meh on to the next one (hopefully).

[SnoSki14]

The Nam is a garbage model. Idk why anyone would take it seriously. 

Just take a look at its past 6 runs. It's all over the place.

[Baroclinic Zone]

[CoastalWx]

It's 3IK brother looks pretty good so far. I'll take 2-4 if that is what it is. 

[JC-CT]

id still take the hires

[PhineasC]

NAM's a real snoozer outside the corner of the AEMATT zone.

[tiger_deF]

Still better than the 00z.. praying to the snow gods that the next suite of models keeps on nudging west

[ORH_wxman]

3k def looks better than the 12k....though the 12z 3k did trend a little east of 06z, but not nearly as much as the 12k did.

[dryslot]

3k is east as well from 06z.

[eduggs]

Not a big surprise the NAM shifted towards model consensus. Subtle changes aloft make big differences at the surface.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

3k is east as well from 06z.

more so, i just like that it has consistently shown a healthier shield than it's big brother

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

NAM's a real snoozer outside the corner of the AEMATT zone.

So far, Not going to cut it up here, That's all i'm going to say on the Nam's.

[ineedsnow]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k def looks better than the 12k....though the 12z 3k did trend a little east of 06z, but not nearly as much as the 12k did.

Destroys eastern areas with a very quick hitting 2-3” per hour band. 

[NorEastermass128]

The ups and downs in this place should really be studied by a professional. 

[CoastalWx]

Can see on 3K how you have the low shown by these squiggly lines near the convection, and then another baggy low to the west that wants to form from the synoptics. Still trying to reason that out. 

[NorEastermass128]

2-4” would be my biggest event in more than a year. I’ll take it. 

[SnoSki14]

The Rgem has by far been the most consistent and that's what I'm going with.

[tavwtby]

NAM seems to be an outlier here, seems like every other model is showing decent surface low placement and H7 looks good to me, even on the 6z nam through 48hr, no?

[PhineasC]

Huge precip field on the 3k at least. 

[Lava Rock]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

So far, Not going to cut it up here, That's all i'm going to say on the Nam's.

the fish will enjoy it.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

2-4” would be my biggest event in more than a year. I’ll take it. 

What about last Feb?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's 3IK brother looks pretty good so far. I'll take 2-4 if that is what it is. 

12k Is like 1-2”

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

the fish will enjoy it.

I'm not concerned about the nam really, 40+ hrs out, 18z probably will go over tblizz's beanie.

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

NAM seems to be an outlier here, seems like every other model is showing decent surface low placement and H7 looks good to me, even on the 6z nam through 48hr, no?

The 12z NAM is west of the 6z GFS and a few mb deeper. H7 does not look great on either of those runs if you want a significant snowstorm.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

12k Is like 1-2”

No it isn't.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Not a big surprise the NAM shifted towards model consensus. Subtle changes aloft make big differences at the surface.

I'm not sure you can discern any sustained trend from the Antonio Brown of the NWP suite.

[eduggs]

NAM-GFS agreement. Lock it.