ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How's the EPS members look for Friday? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 34 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Remember that one storm that was supposed to get sucked out east by a leading vort and it just didn't happen? Models couldn't get it right from 6 hours out, they just kept adjusting to reality. Anyone remember the date? (I feel that one was more miller a, so probably not a good analog, but I just want to know when it was) I don't recall the weather a week ago let alone a storm from god knows when. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That cluster is really becoming more consolidated in a very sweet spot. Things should start lining up today with that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 GFS will be a day late and a dollar short. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still a west lean, but its a 6z run so meh.. If 12z shows it then that'll break the trend.. We still get these amped up 6z and 18z runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’ll take the just off ACY to Just E of Elbow grouping, but they are still a solid minority . That track would probably give RGEM totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Put your obs for today in here https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56475-january-2022-obsdisco/page/60/#comments This thread should be for 1/7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 47 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 9Z SREFS are a toaster bath for most.. Holy amped Congrats north and west on those Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 48 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just took a look at everything from 0z euro to all of the 06z runs, Nothing to dislike really, Especially if it continues on 12z with no regression which i feel we will see the west tics continue even up to go time. NAM had some good stuff right up to my doorstep so I hope it is ahead of the curve here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Put your obs for today in here https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56475-january-2022-obsdisco/page/60/#comments This thread should be for 1/7 Sorry, I'm done, just epic icing and travel nightmare here, unreal to see.. Long range Hrrr which nailed the DC storm looks good at 48, improvement from the 6z run.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a reason to go to bed by 9:00. No reason to do what they did last night. 4-8” for all of SNE. Straightforward By the time I was done lifting and home, it was 9 and I was spent. Was in rare form last night, but looks like my first call map may still have a shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Maps? SREFS are always like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: By the time I was done lifting and home, it was 9 and I was spent. Was in rare form last night, but looks like my first call map may still have a shot. Ya lets hope at least for the lower range, with some good mid levels and banding, and hopefully no east shifts should be ok.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: SREFS are always like that. Too aware. Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't recall the weather a week ago let alone a storm from god knows when. I've always found it fascinating that people here can pull off events/dates out their ass like it happened yesterday and it could have been 10yrs ago. I've kept a weather journal since 1989, but can't remember more than a handful of events tied to specific dates/seasons 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya lets hope at least for the lower range, with some good mid levels and banding, and hopefully no east shifts should be ok.. Happens every time, but if you drop a 6-12" range, everyone perceives it as a forecast for a regionwide 12" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 50 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Need eduggs to tell us how we should be taking the SREFs seriously You suck at reading comprehension 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Couple thoughts. SREFS were way to far amped down in NJ/NYC early this week so you want them as far west as possible. I’d say shave 75 miles off the NW flank. Also haven’t we had a few systems in recent years where we do this multiple low dance, lows popping NE of the main energy only to have within the last 24-48 hours the initial low/energy become the dominant one tucked right into the coast? Seems like that’s what we are seeing and could lend credence to the idea that we may just end up with one consolidated low on modeling within the next few cycles that rides from just off SNJ coast to inside the benchmark or tighter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Happens every time, but if you drop a 6-12" range, everyone perceives it as a forecast for a regionwide 12" lol nah. I would assume 4-6" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: nah. I would assume 4-6" Considering my last three seasons, that is about what I would expect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Couple thoughts. SREFS were way to far amped down in NJ/NYC early this week so you want them as far west as possible. I’d say shave 75 miles off the NW flank. Also haven’t we had a few systems in recent years where we do this multiple low dance, lows popping NE of the main energy only to have within the last 24-48 hours the initial low/energy become the dominant one tucked right into the coast? Seems like that’s what we are seeing and could lend credence to the idea that we may just end up with one consolidated low on modeling within the next few cycles that rides from just off SNJ coast to inside the benchmark or tighter? Do you mean what some of the experience meteorologist were saying yesterday that you were pooh-poohing? Sorry. I’ve been listening to them all along and it looks like this scenario they talked about it while we’re headed to. Are you don’t give up until Will give it up lol, Even though my best case scenario is probably 4 to 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 40 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Like the steadfastness of the RGEM and its track, which I've said all along would be between ACK and the BM. Interesting that the RGEM has flattened the trof for several runs now... slightly lowering the amplitude but with similar tilt progression and evolution. The vortmax was modeled in SVA, then NVA, then central MD. Higher amplitude is often better for stronger, tucked solutions, but in this case that puts the resulting SLP closer to our latitude. I'm still suspicious of the really close tuck on the RGEM, but the consistency is great to see. It's too bad all the precipitation is north and northeast of the SLP. The mid-level lows are still immature at our latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Man HRRR long range is freaking awesome 985 bombing just SW of Nantucket at 48, CCB destroying eastern areas with 2"+ per hour rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Man HRRR long range is freaking awesome 985 bombing just SW of Nantucket at 48, CCB destroying eastern areas with 2"+ per hour rates Epic look depending on where it tracks from there. Hopefully not ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Do you mean what some of the experience meteorologist were saying yesterday that you were pooh-poohing? Sorry. I’ve been listening to them all along and it looks like this scenario they talked about it while we’re headed to. Are you don’t give up until Will give it up lol, Even though my best case scenario is probably 4 to 6 I wouldn’t say poo-pooing what is currently evolving. This is still offshore and not up the canal like those thoughts were the other day. But it’s still salvageable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Man HRRR long range is freaking awesome 985 bombing just SW of Nantucket at 48, CCB destroying eastern areas with 2"+ per hour rates TBlizz’s wife just removed the pads on their walls. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Do you mean what some of the experience meteorologist were saying yesterday that you were pooh-poohing? Sorry. I’ve been listening to them all along and it looks like this scenario they talked about it while we’re headed to. Are you don’t give up until Will give it up lol, Even though my best case scenario is probably 4 to 6 Well, to be fair he said it was more aimed at me, not Will. I think he respectfully questioned Will, though perhaps implying that even he maybe human and prone to some emotional bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 We love death bands Tomer Burgs site 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 122z NAM looks like it will be more subdued than 06z....spacing between the two shortwaves is less through 24h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 NAM is less amped through 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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