IowaStorm05 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 This is too much lack of consensus for 48 hours. It means we don’t know what’s going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Disaster This is working out perfectly. Meltdown from the nam. Everyone Wil be back on the wagon by the gfs ensembles I promise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The CMC is west of 12z, but not so much west of 18z. And if the upper levels on the CMC match the RGEM (can't view them yet), they may actually be less sharp than 18z. Nice run but unlikely to be indicative of a significant trend IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Hey I still have more hope for this. But the runs verbatim in this suite have sucked so far. Okay, now the 00z Euro is the biggest run of our lives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, IowaStorm05 said: This is too much lack of consensus for 48 hours. It means we don’t know what’s going to happen. Welcome to tracking winter storms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: The CMC is west of 12z, but not so much west of 18z. And if the upper levels on the CMC match the RGEM (can't view them yet), they may actually be less sharp than 18z. Nice run but unlikely to be indicative of a significant trend IMO. What's wrong with the cmc ? It's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 why does the forum keep going down? Happened a few times the last couple days 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I don’t have access but I’m guessing the Euro wasn’t a good run or i’d see some posts regarding the last run ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I don’t have access but I’m guessing the Euro wasn’t a good run or i’d see some posts regarding the last run ? The site was down for 3 hours. Not much change to me on euro. Actually looking closer it's a bit east of 18Z. Not a lot of change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 NAM (6Z/5) coming in quite a bit more fun. Too bad I'm the only one up.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Actually.. From what i saw .. There was a clear west movement between the 12z run today and 0z tonight. Also the precip shield Also moved west as well. It's not major, but enough that it is going in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Actually.. From what i saw .. There was a clear west movement between the 12z run today and 0z tonight. Also the precip shield Also moved west as well. It's not major, but enough that it is going in the right direction. NAM gives all of SNE warning snows on the 6z runs. You could see it early on. Let's hope it's real. Time for me to turn it over to the day shift-I would be up in time for the 12z Euro... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, weathafella said: NAM gives all of SNE warning snows on the 6z runs. You could see it early on. Let's hope it's real. Time for me to turn it over to the day shift-I would be up in time for the 12z Euro... Awesome. Looking forward to it. Spoke up for a bit..back to bed myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Site's back... apparently a mercy kill to minimize fretting over 0z GFS/NAM 0z EC ticked west and 6z NAM12k/3k a huge hit, 6-12" much of SNE Just missed you Jerry! We appropriately did not overreact to the 0z NAM, and while we can't take 6z NAM verbatim, it at least does not support the concern of improved sampling at 0z. Differences I see at 6z include a slightly stronger shortwave entering Pac NW and better downstream ridging / less of that scooter streak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Nam was a siggy shift. But it’s the nam and shows you how silly it is to live and die by it. Could care less what it shows and people were putting toasters into their bathtubs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Reggie just east of Chatham 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Reggie just east of Chatham That’s a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 What a mental mess this place was last night. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Yeah 6z Rgem actually looks like it ticked a hair NW with surface trackCan’t take any of these verbatim but bottomline there was no rug pulled with new data ingested at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Gfs still chasing convection offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 That is a very strong s/w on the gfs. That would be rare to drop meager amounts of qpf even with that moisture well offshore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Box not weighing GFS much, looks reasonable blend of EC and mesos, widespread 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That is a very strong s/w on the gfs. That would be rare to drop meager amounts of qpf even with that moisture well offshore. Box looks to be conservative for now, probably seeing if west trends continue today. Your in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Nice look to mesos this morning. Stout and straight up. We snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 35 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Box not weighing GFS much, looks reasonable blend of EC and mesos, widespread 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE GYX isn't much better, widespread 2-4. We'll see how this westward trend goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 WSW’s will go up regionwide in SNE with PM package . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: What a mental mess this place was last night. Looks like Ray left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Rgem is tucked in because its not going chasing the convection to the east like it did with the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Glad I went to bed early last night…I just got caught up reading like 3 pages melting down about the 00z NAM. Some of you need to go back to spring training…lol. Luke wins the prize for best prediction by saying the the 06z NAM would come in zonked. Looking at other guidance, I really like the strength of the shortwave. The 06z suite is coming in strong with it. Hopefully euro follows in a bit. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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