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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The CMC is west of 12z, but not so much west of 18z.

And if the upper levels on the CMC match the RGEM (can't view them yet), they may actually be less sharp than 18z. Nice run but unlikely to be indicative of a significant trend IMO.

What's wrong with the cmc ? It's fine.

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10 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I don’t have access but I’m guessing the Euro wasn’t a good run or i’d see some posts regarding the last run ?

The site was down for 3 hours.  Not much change to me on euro.  Actually looking closer it's a bit east of 18Z.  Not a lot of change.

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8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Actually.. From what i saw .. There was a clear west movement between the 12z run today and 0z tonight. Also the precip shield Also moved west as well.  It's not major, but enough that it is going in the right direction. 

NAM gives all of SNE warning snows on the 6z runs.  You could see it early on.  Let's hope it's real.  Time for me to turn it over to the day shift-I would be up in time for the 12z Euro...

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Just now, weathafella said:

NAM gives all of SNE warning snows on the 6z runs.  You could see it early on.  Let's hope it's real.  Time for me to turn it over to the day shift-I would be up in time for the 12z Euro...

Awesome. Looking forward to it. Spoke up for a bit..back to bed myself

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Site's back... apparently a mercy kill to minimize fretting over 0z GFS/NAM

0z EC ticked west and 6z NAM12k/3k a huge hit, 6-12" much of SNE

Just missed you Jerry!

We appropriately did not overreact to the 0z NAM, and while we can't take 6z NAM verbatim, it at least does not support the concern of improved sampling at 0z.

Differences I see at 6z include a slightly stronger shortwave entering Pac NW and better downstream ridging / less of that scooter streak.

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is a very strong s/w on the gfs. That would be rare to drop meager amounts of qpf even with that moisture well offshore. 

Box looks to be conservative for now, probably seeing if west trends continue today. Your in a good spot 

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Glad I went to bed early last night…I just got caught up reading like 3 pages melting down about the 00z NAM. Some of you need to go back to spring training…lol. 
 

Luke wins the prize for best prediction by saying the the 06z NAM would come in zonked. 
 

Looking at other guidance, I really like the strength of the shortwave. The 06z suite is coming in strong with it. Hopefully euro follows in a bit. 

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