weathafella Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s like 4-8” for most. Nice… but not sure I’d go “big” pretty progressive 1-3 is big these days. But that's an inch of qpf over the 6 hour period from 6-12z at the height so that ain't hay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, George001 said: The Canadian and gfs look to have switched places. Canadian whiffed and gfs was a big storm at 12z and now it’s the other way around. In my eyes that is a step in the right direction, I love to see the Canadian on board. One step close to having the entire big 3 (Euro, Canadian, Navy) on board. SMH violently.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: SMH violently.... Agree. He’s toast…lol The Navy? He’s delusional! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s like 4-8” for most. Nice… but not sure I’d go “big” pretty progressive True, but the upper levels are frigid and the surface temps are mid 20s during the height of the storm. I would think ratios would be more like 15:1 or even 20:1 in some areas, that would increase the range to like 6-12 in areas getting 15:1 and areas getting 20:1 (likely north and west) would be 8-16. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, George001 said: True, but the upper levels are frigid and the surface temps are mid 20s during the height of the storm. I would think ratios would be more like 15:1 or even 20:1 in some areas, that would increase the range to like 6-12 in areas getting 15:1 and areas getting 20:1 (likely north and west) would be 8-16. RATIOS HAVE LITTLE TO DO WITH TEMPS. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 At this range, just assume 10:1, buts once within a day or two, check to see if max lift is centered in the 12-18c snow growth zone, which will ideally be around H7 and fully saturated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s like 4-8” for most. Nice… but not sure I’d go “big” pretty progressive How many times are we going to go through this? The vast majority of death bands occur in "progressive" systems...not the decaying carcuses that rot in place. This could have alot going for it in that respect, but I would like to get a better idea of antecedent airmass. Not to sound like George, but there is alot of latent baroclinic energy offshore right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro not printing out on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro not printing out on SV It's more huggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro is mainly rain for Boston, gives me a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro is mainly rain for Boston, gives me a few inches. Actually per snow Algo even on the stingiest it’s better than you depict. I’m ok with it at this point in time. I think Narcan has 3.4 for BOS which should be more for you and even me. But at this time frame I’m happy it’s an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Actually per snow Algo even on the stingiest it’s better than you depict. I’m ok with it at this point in time. I think Narcan has 3.4 for BOS which should be more for you and even me. But at this time frame I’m happy it’s an event. Yea, not worried about it. I was looking at kuchera map that someone posted, which can be stingy in marginal setups, but it's actually about 8" here. 4-5"ish for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Looks to me like this is all N stream, which is perfectly fine by me....its actually amplifying on approach for once. Northeast may be best here, as it tries to close off over head. 00z Wed should largely tell the tale, as that is when the energy comes ashore.....def by 12z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Trend from 12z was slightly more robust with that energy, so it a bit further north and faster developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Despite what the snow maps say, I would actually prefer the 00z run.....the CF would get nearby and without that, I am depending on deformation and I think that will miss north. Getting way ahead, but I'll take the lower ceiling/higher floor of having this track closer and not getting into that subby zone. I live in an area that is very prone to subsidence in the absence of mid level deformation bc I am often just far enough from the low level forcing near the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Despite what the snow maps say, I would actually prefer the 00z run.....the CF would get nearby bc without that, I am depending on deformation and I think that will miss north. Yeah the 0C line gets to just south of the Pike before retreating. But 5 days out a lot of changes can happen. UKMET/CMC were nice hits. We have reasonable consensus on plowable snow. Time to charge up the snow blower batteries.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Yeah the 0C line gets to just south of the Pike before retreating. But 5 days out a lot of changes can happen. UKMET/CMC were nice hits. We have reasonable consensus on plowable snow. Time to charge up the snow blower batteries.... Yea, I'm just speaking in hypotheticals...obviously not literally talking mesoscale on a day 5 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How many times are we going to go through this? The vast majority of death bands occur in "progressive" systems...not the decaying carcuses that rot in place. This could have alot going for it in that respect, but I would like to get a better idea of antecedent airmass. Not to sound like George, but there will be a blizzard with 2-3 feet with lollis to 4 feet for all of E MA. Ok. George. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 To early to talk about details for the 7th, Check back in Weds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I'm happy to see the slight trend s and e because this may come west some as it gets closer, sort of like today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 There is an unbelievable number of squirrels running around. Can Jerry chime in and say what active squirrels on January 2 portend for the rest of the winter? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 48 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: There is an unbelievable number of squirrels running around. Can Jerry chime in and say what active squirrels on January 2 portend for the rest of the winter? Definitely something that needs to be discussed before the sun angle talk starts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: There is an unbelievable number of squirrels running around. Can Jerry chime in and say what active squirrels on January 2 portend for the rest of the winter? I've been seeing rabbits in my yard. I don't recall that before in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Hoth said: I've been seeing rabbits in my yard. I don't recall that before in January. But are they obese? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: But are they obese? Lol Yes, they've developed a taste for meat. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 06z EPS members…still decent spread but tightening up compared to yesterday 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z EPS members…still decent spread but tightening up compared to yesterday More just off shore than inland… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z EPS members…still decent spread but tightening up compared to yesterday BM track seeming most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: BM track seeming most likely There’s definitely a nice cluster near the BM but there’s definitely another set of lows that hug a bit more between NYC and BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Let’s see how fast the best model can go from acting like it has a handle on a system to schitting itself . Meaning all Track options on table , don’t get sucked in quite so fast. We pray 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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