Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Canadian and gfs look to have switched places. Canadian whiffed and gfs was a big storm at 12z and now it’s the other way around. In my eyes that is a step in the right direction, I love to see the Canadian on board. One step close to having the entire big 3 (Euro, Canadian, Navy) on board.

SMH violently....

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s like 4-8” for most. Nice… but not sure I’d go “big” pretty progressive 

True, but the upper levels are frigid and the surface temps are mid 20s during the height of the storm. I would think ratios would be more like 15:1 or even 20:1 in some areas, that would increase the range to like 6-12 in areas getting 15:1 and areas getting 20:1 (likely north and west) would be 8-16. 

  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, George001 said:

True, but the upper levels are frigid and the surface temps are mid 20s during the height of the storm. I would think ratios would be more like 15:1 or even 20:1 in some areas, that would increase the range to like 6-12 in areas getting 15:1 and areas getting 20:1 (likely north and west) would be 8-16. 

RATIOS HAVE LITTLE TO DO WITH TEMPS. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s like 4-8” for most. Nice… but not sure I’d go “big” pretty progressive 

How many times are we going to go through this? The vast majority of death bands occur in "progressive" systems...not the decaying carcuses that rot in place. This could have alot going for it in that respect, but I would like to get a better idea of antecedent airmass. Not to sound like George, but there is alot of latent baroclinic energy offshore right now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro is mainly rain for Boston,  gives me a few inches.

Actually per snow Algo even on the stingiest it’s better than you depict.  I’m ok with it at this point in time.  I think Narcan has 3.4 for BOS which should be more for you and even me.  But at this time frame I’m happy it’s an event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Actually per snow Algo even on the stingiest it’s better than you depict.  I’m ok with it at this point in time.  I think Narcan has 3.4 for BOS which should be more for you and even me.  But at this time frame I’m happy it’s an event.

Yea, not worried about it. I was looking at kuchera map that someone posted, which can be stingy in marginal setups, but it's actually about 8" here. 4-5"ish for you.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Despite what the snow maps say, I would actually prefer the 00z run.....the CF would get nearby and without that, I am depending on deformation and I think that will miss north.

Getting way ahead, but I'll take the lower ceiling/higher floor of having this track closer and not getting into that subby zone. I live in an area that is very prone to subsidence in the absence of mid level deformation bc I am often just far enough from the low level forcing near the shore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Despite what the snow maps say, I would actually prefer the 00z run.....the CF would get nearby bc without that, I am depending on deformation and I think that will miss north.

Yeah the 0C line gets to just south of the Pike before retreating.  But 5 days out a lot of changes can happen.  UKMET/CMC were nice hits.  We have reasonable consensus on plowable snow.  Time to charge up the snow blower batteries....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Yeah the 0C line gets to just south of the Pike before retreating.  But 5 days out a lot of changes can happen.  UKMET/CMC were nice hits.  We have reasonable consensus on plowable snow.  Time to charge up the snow blower batteries....

Yea, I'm just speaking in hypotheticals...obviously not literally talking mesoscale on a day 5 map.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How many times are we going to go through this? The vast majority of death bands occur in "progressive" systems...not the decaying carcuses that rot in place. This could have alot going for it in that respect, but I would like to get a better idea of antecedent airmass. Not to sound like George, but there will be a blizzard with 2-3 feet with lollis to 4 feet for all of E MA.

Ok. George.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...