Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Scooter gets a tingle in his shorts from 1-2” ... 

And if that doesn't milk your prostate like it does his, then he'll lecture you on the 80s, as if he's more than two years older lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Maybe a hair west at 48hrs…. But you really have to want to see it. Basically no change 

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

0z GFS is a couple tics west of the 18z run.

yeah, pretty small ticks. starting to lock in on ray's worst nightmare?

[JC-CT]

need to fire up that gulf stream

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

yeah, pretty small ticks. starting to lock in on ray's worst nightmare?

I'm sure now I'll get my coveted jack pot of 2.4432420852024032"

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

0z GFS is a couple tics west of the 18z run.

Dryslot moistening 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

yeah, pretty small ticks. starting to lock in on ray's worst nightmare?

Little more then small, But that's what i was looking for, We are still out in time so keep getting these.

[eduggs]

That's a great looking run from the RGEM. With >12:1 ratios, arguably warning snows for all of SNE, plowable back to the west into NY, NJ, PA and also well up into NNE. Significant snows are still very possible, particularly for eastern SNE.

One negative, however, is that this run actually looks a little less sharp aloft than 18z. I don't like the trend of flattening the trof, but I suppose it could also be indicative of the possibility that a tucked solution is possible without a strongly tilted trof. I trust the RGEM with tucked SLP positions a little less than the EC or GFS.

[MJO812]

[weathafella]

It’s better than NAM.  Gets 0.5 qpf up to the pike and you k ow there’ll be def.

[PhineasC]

Came back west a little but still fairly zzzzzz outside SE zones.

Hopefully the east trend is over and now we are seeing more west moves until go time.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It was marginally better overall… sensible weather still largely the same… widespread advisory event 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Little more then small, But that's what i was looking for, We are still out in time so keep getting these.

plenty of time for 75 mile shifts, absolutely. that's like 36 hours when you start honing in on that

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

It’s better than NAM.  Gets 0.5 qpf up to the pike and you k ow there’ll be def.

I don't see nearly that much QPF

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Trough was sharper but it’s still just meh. Could be a good one for Hazey as h7 closes off favorably for NS. 

[IowaStorm05]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This… I am so far out on a meager event it’s not even funny. The novelty of a 1-3” snowfall wears off after like late a November. If it isn’t going to snow enough to get me a day off Friday, spare me.

Yeah if we’re midway through a 3 inch storm it’s sketchy to try and call out.

You really do need a 6-12 deal for that 

In Iowa one morning we had 12 inches from overnight and I was due in for a shift at Olive Garden for lunchtime. My car was completely buried but the roads were treated. I tried to call out and they were like “you need to dig your car out”

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

plenty of time for 75 mile shifts, absolutely. that's like 36 hours when you start honing in on that

Especially after it went 300 miles west just the other day in one run.lol

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s better than NAM.  Gets 0.5 qpf up to the pike and you k ow there’ll be def.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I don't see nearly that much QPF

Yeah.. it’s like half that… .25ish for most 

[George001]

Im interested to see what the Canadian looks like

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I don't see nearly that much QPF

No about .15 to .30 across SNE

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s better than NAM.  Gets 0.5 qpf up to the pike and you k ow there’ll be def.

Looked more like .25" or so up to the Pike and mostly ORH and East

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That’s basically the 1-3” snowfall we were just discussing.

[Greg]

[eduggs]

I'd call this pretty decent model consensus and also pretty decent run to run consistency. I wonder if that means we won't see huge short term changes.

[dendrite]

Just now, Greg said:

That includes tomorrow’s rain.

[MegaMike]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How’s my BTV WRF

It'll look very similar to the 12km NAM which it uses for its ic/bc's.

I wouldn't trust it for any precipitation field anyways. The domain is too small. If winds are strong and perpendicular to any of its (4) boundaries, it'll muck up QPF along said boundary... I ran into this problem when I first ran WRF (ARW core) simulations.

You can subtly see this flaw on the far southern boundary of their domain (within 5 grid points of their boundary). The stronger the winds, the worse it gets. I added a picture of a couple good examples of this artifact when winds are stronger, and more perpendicular, to a modeling system's domain.

[dryslot]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s basically the 1-3” snowfall we were just discussing.

At least most of it remains south of me.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Gotta subtract out tomorrow.