Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

In general, I don't think any one model has performed very well inside 72 hrs on any event.

It's also a problem that they've been taking 72 hours to get here from PDX. 

With such flat flow small errors are magnified when things are moving quickly. 

[mikem81]

RGEM looks well west through 48

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

I think it's significant that the NAM has decreased the sharpness and amplitude of the 500mb trof for several successive runs today. That's doesn't mean I can predict the future or change your mind if you disagree. It's just an opinion.

if we are talking about from when it got into range on the 6z run this morning, it was on the western edge of guidance. not at all surprising it adjusted.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totally agree. I think its concerning.

I’m not sure why it wouldn’t be. It’s the first mode run of better sampled data and it looks like complete garbage. I know it’s easy to brush it off as the Nam, but it’s still definitely not great 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

it was the same crappy synoptic evolution but it didn't look quite as shredded with the qpf anyway

It was definitely better than the 12k but still lame mostly outside SE MA coastal regions.

[dryslot]

Best to wait on some of the other models in the 0z suite before passing judgement, And i won't until at least 12z tomorrow.

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

In general, I don't think any one model has performed very well inside 72 hrs on any event.

On a microscale, no. We still can't pinpoint precipitation boundaries at the scale of individual towns and cities 3 days out. That's why I think it's best to take everything into account. Based on GFS and CMC trends several days ago, some thought good snows would get to PHL and NYC. The NAM was stubborn and resisted the trend. In the end, a blended compromise would have been right. It doesn't always work that way, but it's still almost certainly best to weigh all model outcomes at least a little.

[MJO812]

Why is it so hard to get snow this winter ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not sure why it wouldn’t be. It’s the first mode run of better sampled data and it looks like complete garbage. I know it’s easy to brush it off as the Nam, but it’s still definitely not great 

Yes.

If the rest of the 00z suite doesn't stray from it, then anything other than a nuisance is on life support IMO...still give it until 12z for confirmation. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Why is it so hard to get snow this winter ?

Move south?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Why is it so hard to get snow this winter ?

Because we had a ton of winters where we got buried. Time to pay up. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

On a microscale, no. We still can't pinpoint precipitation boundaries at the scale of individual towns and cities 3 days out. That's why I think it's best to take everything into account. Based on GFS and CMC trends several days ago, some thought good snows would get to PHL and NYC. The NAM was stubborn and resisted the trend. In the end, a blended compromise would have been right. It doesn't always work that way, but it's still almost certainly best to weigh all model outcomes at least a little.

You should use everything that is available and weigh them, Toss the outliers, And blend the rest by percentages to try to come out with a reasonable outcome.

[JC-CT]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Why is it so hard to get snow this winter ?

it's not. most of this subforum will enjoy its 1-3" for the third time this year. hoorah.

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why is it so hard to get snow this winter ?

A lousy LA Nina pattern can do this sort of thing to snow lovers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

it's not. most of this subforum will enjoy its 1-3" for the third time this year. hoorah.

Count me in the "not worth the extra half hour of commuting" camp. 

[eduggs]

Just now, dryslot said:

You should use everything that is available and weigh them, Toss the outliers, And blend the rest by percentages to try to come out with a reasonable outcome.

Agreed except we can't do an outlier test with so few data points. OK maybe you could with the HRRR. But the other models aren't run frequently enough. It's risky to disregard outliers when they very often end up being the most accurate runs of a suite.

[Sn0waddict]

RDPS looks pretty darn good.  Might be even slightly west from 18z

[Go Kart Mozart]

Reggie!  Reggie!

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because we had a ton of winters where we got buried. Time to pay up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Reggie!  Reggie!

Too bad it hasn't been right since Feb 2015 lol

[MJO812]

Rgem!

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Agreed except we can't do an outlier test with so few data points. OK maybe you could with the HRRR. But the other models aren't run frequently enough. It's risky to disregard outliers when they very often end up being the most accurate runs of a suite.

Well, It still comes down to the time frame your trying to hone in on, Obviously, A shorter lead will give you the most options, But by then, You should be into just the short range models so where do you draw the line?

[eduggs]

The ICON is a touch flatter and therefore weaker/SE at the surface compared to last run. But 18z was pretty solid. Still a widespread plowable event and close enough to trend better.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Too bad it hasn't been right since Feb 2015 lol

It was right in the storm Feb 1/2 last year with getting good precip up to me and @dryslot. We were tracking the RGEM closely in that one.

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Too bad it hasn't been right since Feb 2015 lol

It's alls we gots right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

It was right in the storm Feb 1/2 last year with getting good precip up to me and @dryslot. We were tracking the RGEM closely in that one.

I was being sarcastic, but its definitely the NAM's Canadian cousin.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

It's alls we gots right now.

Well, 18z EPS looked solid.

[weathafella]

So far NAM is disappointing.  The next model to pay attention to is gfs.  Yes RGEM but it has sucked for years.  We look at ICON because it’s early and I’m guilty but does it have any value?   So let’s see what gfs says in 20-30 minutes.

[WeatherHappens]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why is it so hard to get snow this winter ?

climate change 

[78Blizzard]

When the Euro ticks further west from 18z, some will wonder what all the fuss was about with the NAM, a lousy model.