Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

yeah not going to lie, it looks terrible. but also, it's not (yet) hugely relevant

It's definitely relevant. You can't just discard major model runs. Every "bad" run makes a "good" outcome a little less likely. But that doesn't mean it can't come storming back tomorrow... just that it's slightly less likely.

[SnowGoose69]

That NAM run takes the shadowing effect of the transfer to a new level...models usually underdo it, that run actually overdid it

[weathafella]

The shit streak rises again!  We need this..

 

 

[George001]

I’m still more worried about mixing than the weaker solutions verifying. 

[UnitedWx]

5 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I mean that looks really bad. And this was what some people said was an important reveal? 

No. Its the NAM. Not worth much at this lead time 

[Cmass495]

[JC-CT]

Just now, eduggs said:

It's definitely relevant. You can't just discard major model runs. Every "bad" run makes a "good" outcome a little less likely. But that doesn't mean it can't come storming back tomorrow... just that it's slightly less likely.

I can discard a single run of the NAM, absolutely - watch me. When the 0z suite is over, if it is lending support to one or more globals, then I'll bring it into the fold. By itself, it's not relevant. I've seen it be on NAM island more times than I can remember.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It's definitely relevant. You can't just discard major model runs. Every "bad" run makes a "good" outcome a little less likely. But that doesn't mean it can't come storming back tomorrow... just that it's slightly less likely.

I’m discounting every piece of guidance that shows a weaker solution because it doesn’t make sense with a shortwave that powerful and negatively tilted.

 

Just now, Cmass495 said:

disgusting, makes me sick! I hope they discontinue that piece of shit model! 

[qg_omega]

This storm was a whiff a few days ago, nothing I have seen changes that

[CoastalWx]

When the EPS and NAM differ like that, I wonder who’s side I would take?

[IowaStorm05]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

No. Its the NAM. Bot worth much at this lead time 

Well it looked bad today on some Euro ensembles or something like that I saw those. There’s definitely something in the mix that threatens this outcome entirely.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

When the EPS and NAM differ like that, I wonder who’s side I would take?

The EPS and euro haven’t exactly been on a heater.

[George001]

Just now, IowaStorm05 said:

Well it looked bad today on some Euro ensembles or something like that I saw those. There’s definitely something in the mix that threatens this outcome entirely.

The eps came west last run, but it’s important to note there were 2 camps, 1 was the stronger solutions with a farther west track (mixing would be the concern) and another with father east, weaker solutions (low strength would be the concern).

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

I’m discounting every piece of guidance that shows a weaker solution because it doesn’t make sense with a shortwave that powerful and negatively tilted.

 

disgusting, makes me sick! I hope they discontinue that piece of shit model! 

There is pretty decent snows shown on that run to PHL or so due to the s/w but ultimately the transfer or evolutionary process of the coastal is jacked...that could be due to extremely fast flow or many factors but its probably the extreme end of the worst case scenario of how a s/w that good could fail for places PHL on North and east

[eduggs]

So now there's a bit of a discernable trend with the NAM. Wonder if the rest of 0z will confirm or deny. 

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, Cmass495 said:

Bro, measured in mm, that's a solid foot. Sign me up!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When the EPS and NAM differ like that, I wonder who’s side I would take?

I usually side with George . He’s got a good handle on this one .

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When the EPS and NAM differ like that, I wonder who’s side I would take?

Granted NAM, but I don't like seeing that as the energy is getting sampled. 

[Sn0waddict]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Little nuances in the flow can make big impacts…but I never trust the NAM with synoptics this far out. Onto the GFS.

The Germans would like a word with you for disregarding the ICON like that.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The EPS and euro haven’t exactly been on a heater.

and the NAM has? I love the NAM, because weenie reasons, but you gotta love it for what it is and not try to change it into the perfect girlfriend I mean weather model.

[CoastalWx]

3K looked a lot better than its brother.

[cleetussnow]

10 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I mean that looks really bad. And this was what some people said was an important reveal? 
 

It gives me about an inch. A light inch. 

It doesn’t just look weaker. It looks dead. Trustworthy or not I don’t like that. And it’s not the first time today something hinted at super weak. I saw those ensembles.

Thats what she said...

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When the EPS and NAM differ like that, I wonder who’s side I would take?

Look at it this way.  How often has the NAM been right at this point in time vs the Euro?  Easy decision.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When the EPS and NAM differ like that, I wonder who’s side I would take?

EPS 51 - Nam 1, If your scoring at home.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

and the NAM has? I love the NAM, because weenie reasons, but you gotta love it for what it is and not try to change it into the perfect girlfriend I mean weather model.

The NAM is always unpredictable as to when its handling an event well or not...often times when from 48 or beyond it continually shows the same thing over and over its onto something...that theory failed a few days ago though when up until 30 hours out it was the only model missing the MA by 200 miles consistently.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Granted NAM, but I don't like seeing that as the energy is getting sampled. 

This crossed my mind as well. Should be the first suite with decent sampling 

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The problem looked to be that convection off NC forming another low further out.

The surface isn't the problem. Weather isn't generated at the surface. Ls and Hs don't do anything - they have no causal effect. They form and evolve in response to what happens in the upper levels.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Look at it this way.  How often has the NAM been right at this point in time vs the Euro?  Easy decision.

I’m not going to comment until the rest of the suite comes out. It could be right, but I’m not sweating  over it. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Look at it this way.  How often has the NAM been right at this point in time vs the Euro?  Easy decision.

i will say, there's a fallacy here - the NAM has 6 hours on the "current" Euro. my point is, I'd like to see the whole 0z suite

[IowaStorm05]

NAM comes thru to give me one inch of snow… from a system that’s barely over 48 hours away.

Thats a major red flag.