Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[tavwtby]

looks a little more progressive, or am I reading that wrong

[78Blizzard]

Going east.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

It may be getting it's act together.....not to be denied.

Its not, It will.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Shit streak may be lifting out in time?

Mommy scooter with a handful of wet wipes saves ema?

[George001]

I don’t think it’s weaker, just a little slower to develop. Looks like the shortwave holds back a bit more than last run, and the storm starts bombing out later. This gives it the appearance of being weaker, but it holding back more wouldn’t it be a good thing because of better wave spacing? I think it’s going to recover and end up farther west and stronger than last run.

[met_fan]

Source? I've seen 45% in recent months, which means a significant number of people are still being impacted by a storm like this.

The work from home percentage in nowhere near as high as most people think

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/09/work-from-home-numbers/620107/

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Shows about .1 Qpf but queens will queen 

[Hoth]

Well, shut it down, people. The NAM has spoken. Said no one ever.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

I don’t think it’s weaker, just a little slower to develop. Looks like the shortwave holds back a bit more than last run, and the storm starts bombing out later. This gives it the appearance of being weaker, but it holding back more wouldn’t it be a good thing because of better wave spacing? I think it’s going to recover and end up farther west and stronger than last run.

NO

[Sn0waddict]

Ya it ain’t great. But it’s the NAM let’s not freak out quite yet…

[tavwtby]

after 0z will be more confident in anything, always wanted to wait until 48 out before lock, too much waver, as it's sampled more, if we still have this look tomorrow morning, I think we're good, better east, but still all SNE gets plowable imo

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t think it’s weaker, just a little slower to develop. Looks like the shortwave holds back a bit more than last run, and the storm starts bombing out later. This gives it the appearance of being weaker, but it holding back more wouldn’t it be a good thing because of better wave spacing? I think it’s going to recover and end up farther west and stronger than last run.

bruh, best just to not look

[dryslot]

Its 12mb weaker at the surface, See ya.

[MJO812]

Disaster 

[moneypitmike]

Well that sucked.

[dendrite]

Little nuances in the flow can make big impacts…but I never trust the NAM with synoptics this far out. Onto the GFS.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

Its 12mb weaker at the surface, See ya.

it's trying to get it's sht together...for the orcas

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

No sugar coating that, it looks like hell. Bad start to 00z.

 

[IowaStorm05]

I mean that looks really bad. And this was what some people said was an important reveal? 
 

It gives me about an inch. A light inch. 

It doesn’t just look weaker. It looks dead. Trustworthy or not I don’t like that. And it’s not the first time today something hinted at super weak. I saw those ensembles.

[78Blizzard]

The problem looked to be that convection off NC forming another low further out.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its 12mb weaker at the surface, See ya.

That ****ing sucks. Hate to see it, I think it had initialization issues though.

[CoastalWx]

At least Pasta just scored. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Wide right like Ray Finkle

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

The problem looked to be that convection off NC forming another low further out.

That’s a pesky little feature showing up on a lot of runs

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

At least Pasta just scored. 

Better look then the Nam too.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Little nuances in the flow can make big impacts…but I never trust the NAM with synoptics this far out. Onto the GFS.

Do we trust the gf’s 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Yeah….. I’m pretty sure those worried about mixing can drop that thought like a bad habit right now. Just hope you see some precip.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It’ll show a wound up missile at 6z so ema weenies go smoke a J and relax.

[George001]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t think it’s weaker, just a little slower to develop. Looks like the shortwave holds back a bit more than last run, and the storm starts bombing out later. This gives it the appearance of being weaker, but it holding back more wouldn’t it be a good thing because of better wave spacing? I think it’s going to recover and end up farther west and stronger than last run.

….yeah it’s weaker, but the run had major initialization issues and is struggling with the pattern. 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah….. I’m pretty sure those worried about mixing can drop that thought like a bad habit right now. Just hope you see some precip.

based on this run of the NAM?