wxsniss Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah almost looks like you can see the two camps with the low closer to synoptic dynamics and the one with the convection. Yep... we posted about this earlier, both from perspective of surface low position and disrupted conveyor mechanics. Majority of EPS members are west of mean, and the median is probably more informative. If the convection is not in play, the true mean is significantly more west. Watch models jump within next 2-3 cycles. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Wouldn't it be amazing if Kevin changed to rain after all? Kevin and all of “ct rains” while MJO is pounding 2” per hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, So far, That convection is there, It keeps showing up, But i did notice it looked weaker and east on the OP at 18z from the 12z run, And the SLP heading off the Carolina coast wasn't as influenced by it as it moved north, I think that can still get overcome going forward. Seems like this scenario is in play almost every coastal. The biggest cause of model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, RDRY said: Seems like this scenario is in play almost every coastal. The biggest cause of model mayhem. And some models are more sensitive to it then others, The higher res models for example is when you can get feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Yep... we posted about this earlier, both from perspective of surface low position and disrupted conveyor mechanics. Majority of EPS members are west of mean, and the median is probably more informative. If the convection is not in play, the true mean is significantly more west. Watch models jump within next 2-3 cycles. Couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The most import model suite of our lives is about to kick off. Get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The most import model suite of our lives is about to kick off. Get excited. I was wondering if someone was going to use that worn out cliche. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: And the spread is still on the west side …, incredible. Man. What are we …? 3 1/2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The most import model suite of our lives is about to kick off. Get excited. PBP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: And the spread is still on the west side …, incredible. Man. What are we …? 3 1/2 days I think this at least partially has something to do with the dueling lows structure...some have the main low dominant, a few have the leading vort take over, and some "melt" them together? I'm literally making stuff up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 It’s intriguing higher res model clusters, cross-guidance to boot. moving west and more intense, en masse. mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I get minutes of delay behind when you guys get model data because I use Pivotal. I know it’s not the best but I’ve been using it for 5 years it’s what I know. I don’t use it in the summer, and I don’t come here in the summer either. Summer weather is a different vibe when it comes to forecasts and the like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, Dan76 said: PBP? hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I kind of like the 18z EURO Kuchie map for some reason. A widespread 3-6" with locally 6-8" is just what this forum needs. It'll be interesting to see the snow growth potential the next couple of days. Ratios always matter... small flake vs deform dendrites. Kuchie runs fluffy when its cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I don’t like that vort taint in our upstream ridging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I don’t like that vort taint in our upstream ridging. phrasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I don’t like that vort taint in our upstream ridging. Its compressing the flow a bit downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Nam coming in less amped this far. Not a great looking start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Looks like a great scooter sh*t streak 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 NAM with less wattage. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said: Nam coming in less amped this far. Not a great looking start. game over man, game over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I'm on Hr 48 of the 0Z NAM right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The Nam at this lead shouldn't influence anyone's thinking TBH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looks like a great scooter sh*t streak That’s exactly what that is haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Shit streak may be lifting out in time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: The Nam at this lead shouldn't influence anyone's thinking TBH. never, ever, ever, has the NAM lead a cycle and completely thrown off the weenies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Looks entirely less impressive at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 It may be getting it's act together.....not to be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks entirely less impressive at 48 yeah not going to lie, it looks terrible. but also, it's not (yet) hugely relevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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