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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah almost looks like you can see the two camps with the low closer to synoptic dynamics and the one with the convection. 

Yep... we posted about this earlier, both from perspective of surface low position and disrupted conveyor mechanics.

Majority of EPS members are west of mean, and the median is probably more informative. If the convection is not in play, the true mean is significantly more west.

Watch models jump within next 2-3 cycles.

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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RDRY

RDRY

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, So far, That convection is there, It keeps showing up, But i did notice it looked weaker and east on the OP at 18z from the 12z run, And the SLP heading off the Carolina coast wasn't as influenced by it as it moved north, I think that can still get overcome going forward.

Seems like this scenario is in play almost every coastal. The biggest cause of model mayhem.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yep... we posted about this earlier, both from perspective of surface low position and disrupted conveyor mechanics.

Majority of EPS members are west of mean, and the median is probably more informative. If the convection is not in play, the true mean is significantly more west.

Watch models jump within next 2-3 cycles.

Couldn't agree more. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And the spread is still on the west side …, incredible. Man. What are we …? 3 1/2 days 

I think this at least partially has something to do with the dueling lows structure...some have the main low dominant, a few have the leading vort take over, and some "melt" them together? I'm literally making stuff up here.

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IowaStorm05

IowaStorm05

Posted
Posted

I get minutes of delay behind when you guys get model data because I use Pivotal. I know it’s not the best but I’ve been using it for 5 years it’s what I know. I don’t use it in the summer, and I don’t come here in the summer either. Summer weather is a different vibe when it comes to forecasts and the like. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I kind of like the 18z EURO Kuchie map for some reason.

A widespread 3-6" with locally 6-8" is just what this forum needs.  It'll be interesting to see the snow growth potential the next couple of days.  Ratios always matter... small flake vs deform dendrites.  Kuchie runs fluffy when its cold.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-snow_24hr_kuchera-1610800.thumb.png.2eadd0576d0168b888372d81bd2d1a56.png

 

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