Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

39 minutes ago, George001 said:

My forecast:

8–12 in all of eastern mass with an isolated 12-15 in heaviest banding. The higher end will probably be NW up into central and northern Mass, lower end in my area. In my opinion the models are underestimating the strength of the low.

We appreciate Jimmy’s spirit living through you so we wish you good health and happiness…but, dude. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

41 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Not sure if this was posted but OKX first maps (for the whole event). Seems bullish for them but within reason.

Sell.

[wxsniss]

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I noticed that on the nam. It starts out as a really tiny area of precip. I was wondering if the moisture to the east was interfering with it.

Yeah, maybe it's real and we will have a disjointed system...  otherwise that 18z RGEM would have been a much bigger hit with that track.

From current guidance (again heavily weighing that median on EPS which looks to be over/west of BM... and given the receding NAO and other synoptics discussed), I'm anticipating a trend northwest on op guidance in the next 24 hours. 

Might even see an abrupt jump with sampling tonight. 

3-6/4-8 kind of range for eSNE is probably a good place to start... at some point, we'd need to see the bigger hits actually depicted on the trusted models to go higher.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's H5 on the RGEM....you can see how nicely the vort is curling up into ACY area (and eventually LI) and it's tight enough that there's good downstream ridging....it's a bit more efficient in that department than the 18z NAM which is why the RGEM was a big hit and the NAM was more of a moderate event.

see anything familiar ?

 

[CoastalWx]

I just don't see how one complains this winter. Enjoy what falls. This was always the "gravy" period anyhow. 

[weathafella]

Still a lot of spread for 60 hours out on GEFS 

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sell.

really? 4-6 seems reasonable to me. a lot can still change but its not anything wild.

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yesterday my tongue in cheek call for here was C - 1” so Harvey’s forecast isn’t too far from that.  Lol
Yes, I know that’s a  pessimistic call for this area but I am pretty far northwest, so I can’t afford any trend East overnight. 
I was really hoping to pull at least 2”-4” from this storm so hopefully we get the tug West tonight.  

Your initial idea is possible.  I will try to be optimistic for a westward ho 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I just don't see how one complains this winter. Enjoy what falls. This was always the "gravy" period anyhow. 

It’s just been tough because we’ve had a total of 4” since Nov 1st, spread over multiple events, there’s no ice on the ponds and Berkshire East has about 4 trails open. 
I’m sure it can get better in a hurry but it’s been a tough start.

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

see anything familiar ?

 

plz tell us

[MaineJayhawk]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s just been tough because we’ve had a total of 4” since Nov 1st, spread over multiple events, there’s no ice on the ponds and Berkshire East has about 4 trails open. 
I’m sure it can get better in a hurry but it’s been a tough start.

AEMATT

You know this

[JC-CT]

I do see Jan 2011 showing up on CIPS lol (the 2nd one)

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

AEMATT

You know this

Right.  I’m sitting under an inch for the season.  Jackpot.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice to have the bad trend at least interrupted a bit...I think that will continue tonight. 

You know... just gonna say it. Was keeping it to myself because ... heh, it's as if we need yet another analysis/'what if' thrown into this ambrosia .. right?

But, I thought today was all good signs frankly.  The  evidence, I haven't yet snarked the whole board and the Trump administration to hell yet -

I thought today was favorable because there is virtually no wave length room, when considering the R-wave construct from the Aleu ... all the way around to NS, that really allows this to "escape" east.  It really has to turn NE leaving the coast, and that's a favorable position - the EPS looked whack and 12z frankly. 

The models were stretching the flow today ...perhaps too far is what it looked like to me.  Now, we've seen weird things - just weight probabilities against science/experience here.

Meanwhile, the overnight runs ( save the Euro admittedly ) got a little too close for comfort.  We are/were still looking for the vortex split/ejection over the N/A space into this morning. Yet, some high res models were already too close to the coast for comfort.  I think it would be nice to get a snowfall here.  We've been patient as winter enthusiasts...  

I said yesterday, if the ridge amps in the west, this could dig and end up over Buffalo.  I think that is unlikely at this point, granted - but ending up over Barre Falls damn and recreational park is still in the hunt... no thx -

This shift east today is really against the pathway of least resistance, a bit less likely.. Should end up being a Del Mar quasi Miller B initiation, to about 73 W over the 40th - but that does still allow elasticity by a little.  There are not railways in the sky -

[Damage In Tolland]

So silly the whiff believers. Acting like you haven’t seen this rodeo before. 4-8” for most everyone in SNE and likely a lot of 9-10” 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

So silly the whiff believers. Acting like you haven’t seen this rodeo before. 4-8” for most everyone in SNE and likely a lot of 9-10” 

Whiff believers..........................[nobody that exists to Kevin]......................start at 9-10" and go up from there

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

plz tell us

Hint, that's December 8, 7pm, 2005

[Baroclinic Zone]

It may never snow again.

[WxWatcher007]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Epic back of moon visibility right now...  I think that's conjunction with Mars too -

 

Isn't there a wives tail about beware the back of moon portends the winter doom ? ...should be

Stopped me in my tracks outside. It’s gorgeous.

[butterfish55]

It may never snow again.

Whiff believer alert!!!!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It may never snow again.

I think you would be fine with that.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Not making any operational version judgements on performance until we are fully past vortex disintegration and subsequent uptake of the S/W ejection down stream into the denser physical sounding array.  That's begins 00z and really gets covered overnight... 

prior to that ...perhaps unusual to be more ens mean reliant at D4 but it is what it is... and this 18z shows a fair amount of spread still on the western side of this thing, with smattering of deep solutions close enough to really wallop the eastern half

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think you would be fine with that.  

George's Bank cashing in

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

really? 4-6 seems reasonable to me. a lot can still change but its not anything wild.

You’re right, it’s not wild..just a little aggressive. They have a habit of being on the wrong side of forecasting though so I usually sell them. 

[Torch Tiger]

41 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

People keep complaining and mama nature going to give you the nogaps open wave.

cool

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Right.  I’m sitting under an inch for the season.  Jackpot.

Yeah he beer.

[TheSnowman]

24 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I do see Jan 2011 showing up on CIPS lol (the 2nd one)

We call it “The Buzzsaw Storm” as the radar was the most perfect buzzsaw we’ve seen.
 

AND I WAS IN LOS ANGELES  

[JC-CT]

10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

cool

Are you ready for the most important NAM run of our lives, my pretty little kitty?

[NorEastermass128]

Harvey going for a wide swath of 3-6” for most. 1-3” Cape and WNE. 

[PhineasC]

NAM’s coming west at 00z. I can feel it.