weathafella Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 GFS chased that convective blob it seem? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 No good, Worse then 12z, Seems to get its act together later on today's runs over NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 My forecast: 8–12 in all of eastern mass with an isolated 12-15 in heaviest banding. The higher end will probably be NW up into central and northern Mass, lower end in my area. In my opinion the models are underestimating the strength of the low. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Not sure if this was posted but OKX first maps (for the whole event). Seems bullish for them but within reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: No good, Worse then 12z A shitty and good model 2, 2 shitty models 2. Euro weighs in in 2 hours to lean one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GFS Weird lows off the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, JC-CT said: reluctant because...? Out of date anti virus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 When the GFS jacks ACK, you know it's not good. And I use jack lightly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Not really surprised by 18Z GFS or any other model. More interested in the 00Z/12Z 05 suite when new upper air data has been sampled thats coming on shore. Tomorrows 12Z will be important. Off hour op runs right now mean very little to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: No good, Worse then 12z, Seems to get its act together later on today's runs over NS LBNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: LBNE? LBN Load Blown Nowhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Soundings looked nice. I’ll take a 3-6” snow and run. Or any snow for that matter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Soundings looked nice. I’ll take a 3-6” snow and run. Or any snow for that matter. you'll get 0.1 and like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 The gfs is very Far East…. Nobody is hitting warning criteria with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Not bad from NWS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GFS Cringe worthy for my 'hood. Hopefully we see it tug bag W at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: A shitty and good model 2, 2 shitty models 2. Euro weighs in in 2 hours to lean one way or the other. Been an ugly 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Soundings looked nice. I’ll take a 3-6” snow and run. Or any snow for that matter. I know you say that, but that is a pretty big departure from 24 hours or so ago. If the max for anyone out of this system is 3-6”, that’s going to be disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Say nothing of the fact that snow maps don’t mean much especially at range, I don’t know why anyone would have been setting their bar 4 days out when it’s well documented this season that each model has struggled resolving critical (and sometimes basic) details. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I know you say that, but that is a pretty big departure from 24 hours or so ago. If the max for anyone out of this system is 3-6”, that’s going to be disappointing. 24 hours ago gfs was a clean whiff. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, weathafella said: 24 hours ago gfs was a clean whiff. fact check: TRUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Harv going 3-6” for eastern MA as far as ORH, all of RI, eastern CT and SE Mass. 1-3 out my way. That seems reasonable right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 People keep complaining and mama nature going to give you the nogaps open wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, CarverWX said: Not bad from NWS. Given the obvious rain keeping totals down for the cape, they must be projecting a track closer to ACK. Given that, I don't get the widespread 4-6 for much of the area. Surely SE areas should do better under that scenario. The east track of the GFS had 9" for ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I know you say that, but that is a pretty big departure from 24 hours or so ago. If the max for anyone out of this system is 3-6”, that’s going to be disappointing. It was a whiff 24 hrs ago. Taste the 80s and 3-6" events. For Christ sake. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Given the obvious rain keeping totals down for the cape, they must be projecting a track closer to ACK. Given that, I don't get the widespread 4-6 for much of the area. Surely SE areas should do better under that scenario. The east track of the GFS had 9" for ACK. Well at 60 hours out it seems like a reasonable heads up. Plenty of time to tweak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Epic back of moon visibility right now... I think that's conjunction with Mars too - Isn't there a wives tail about beware the back of moon portends the winter doom ? ...should be 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Harv going 3-6” for eastern MA as far as ORH, all of RI, eastern CT and SE Mass. 1-3 out my way. That seems reasonable right now Yesterday my tongue in cheek call for here was C - 1” so Harvey’s forecast isn’t too far from that. Lol Yes, I know that’s a pessimistic call for this area but I am pretty far northwest, so I can’t afford any trend East overnight. I was really hoping to pull at least 2”-4” from this storm so hopefully we get the tug West tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Yesterday's mid-Atlantic snowstorm had a ton of GOM moisture out ahead of the trof just pumping northward into a wall of cold air. We won't really have that luxury with this one. Here we need to rely on the dynamics of a rapidly deepening SLP and moist easterly inflow. The main precipitation shield is not likely to extend very far NW unless this really wraps up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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