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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


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Say nothing of the fact that snow maps don’t mean much especially at range, I don’t know why anyone would have been setting their bar 4 days out when it’s well documented this season that each model has struggled resolving critical (and sometimes basic) details.

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9 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

Not bad from NWS.

 

Screenshot_20220104-171233_Twitter.jpg

Given the obvious rain keeping totals down for the cape, they must be projecting a track closer to ACK.  Given that, I don't get the widespread 4-6 for much of the area.  Surely SE areas should do better under that scenario.  The east track of the GFS had 9" for ACK.

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12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I know you say that, but that is a pretty big departure from 24 hours or so ago. If the max for anyone out of this system is 3-6”, that’s going to be disappointing.

It was a whiff 24 hrs ago. Taste the 80s and 3-6" events. For Christ sake. 

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2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Given the obvious rain keeping totals down for the cape, they must be projecting a track closer to ACK.  Given that, I don't get the widespread 4-6 for much of the area.  Surely SE areas should do better under that scenario.  The east track of the GFS had 9" for ACK.

Well at 60 hours out it seems like a reasonable heads up.  Plenty of time to tweak.

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13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Harv going 3-6” for eastern MA as far as ORH, all of RI, eastern CT and SE Mass.  1-3 out my way.  That seems reasonable right now

Yesterday my tongue in cheek call for here was C - 1” so Harvey’s forecast isn’t too far from that.  Lol
Yes, I know that’s a  pessimistic call for this area but I am pretty far northwest, so I can’t afford any trend East overnight. 
I was really hoping to pull at least 2”-4” from this storm so hopefully we get the tug West tonight.  

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Yesterday's mid-Atlantic snowstorm had a ton of GOM moisture out ahead of the trof just pumping northward into a wall of cold air. We won't really have that luxury with this one. Here we need to rely on the dynamics of a rapidly deepening SLP and moist easterly inflow. The main precipitation shield is not likely to extend very far NW unless this really wraps up.

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