Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Ginx snewx]

Mids look fine. 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

reluctant because...?

Pure unadulterated porn.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually ... now that I've seen and compared the 12z 72 to this one's 66 ...

a .. spending waaay too much time for sanity on a f'n NAM solution differential that is outside of 48 hours

b .. these differences noted earlier on in this 18z run, don't end up being very meaningful at 500 mb ...with very little morphology if any.   So, shallower eject was perhaps too minor to matter.   Plus, the leading eastern Lakes S/W contention didn't seem to effect matters either.   

Not sure about the sfc but .. heh...  losing interest in this particular, probably ultimately meaningless analysis - heh

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, weathafella said:

Pure unadulterated porn.  

i understand that part

[weathafella]

FWIW (not much). ICON looks decent 

[JC-CT]

Just now, weathafella said:

FWIW (not much). ICON looks decent 

amped!

[mahk_webstah]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Nope, you're not whacked. The previous run was better. Little bit of wishcasting going on.

By who

[JC-CT]

spacing seems a little better on rgem too at 42 vs 48. but who knows

[JC-CT]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

spacing seems a little better on rgem too at 42 vs 48. but who knows

[Sn0waddict]

RGEM looking more like 6z vs 12z

[Allsnow]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think @Allsnowmade that same observation....not good. Damn mid atl event is slowing...

It’s the lead wave coming in tomorrow night. We need better wave spacing so the flow isn’t to flat along the coast. The RGEM at 18z was so much better with wave spacing. Should be a huge hit for sne 

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

spacing seems a little better on rgem too at 42 vs 48. but who knows

Nice PbP 

 

 

[78Blizzard]

Just now, Allsnow said:

It’s the lead wave coming in tomorrow night. We need better wave spacing so the flow isn’t to flat along the coast. The RGEM at 18z was so much better with wave spacing. Should be a huge hit for sne 

That RGEM track is what I expect will happen.

[weathafella]

That RGEM would be a nice Friday party for some of us!

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah RGEM went zonkers.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

That RGEM would be a nice Friday party for some of us!

Icon with the same improvement. Lead wave out quicker allows hgts to recover 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Icon with the same improvement. Lead wave out quicker allows hgts to recover 

I need to delete more attachments ugh but icon is a warning hit for sne 

[ORH_wxman]

Here's H5 on the RGEM....you can see how nicely the vort is curling up into ACY area (and eventually LI) and it's tight enough that there's good downstream ridging....it's a bit more efficient in that department than the 18z NAM which is why the RGEM was a big hit and the NAM was more of a moderate event.

[TalcottWx]

I've been looming during this one. A lot going on. 

I'm extremely bullish for winter storm warnings for majority of the area and would be much more concerned about ptype issues on South coast and islands instead of whiff. 

I think tonight is when operationals start to catch hint this thing is a legitimate moderate plowable snowstorm for the majority of posters in SNE. Ensembles and mid levels have remained encouraging despite some extreme microanalyzing. 

I'm wary of amounts up to 6-12" as mentioned by Ray, but he put a lot more time than I did into this. 

Follow the ML + ens.... Snowstorm coming. 

P.s. Clear we have some angst in here with some of our western friends. Lol. 

 

[dryslot]

Nobody should hate that, But lets get that look on the rest overnight into tomorrow, Even a hair or two sharper upstream makes a big difference downstream.

[wxsniss]

All theoretical and specific to this out-of-range guidance, but that 18z RGEM could have been a much bigger hit than depicted verbatim... the convection further east is probably interfering with conveyor belt

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

All theoretical and specific to this out-of-range guidance, but that 18z RGEM could have been a much bigger hit than depicted verbatim... the convection further east is probably interfering with conveyor belt

I noticed that on the nam. It starts out as a really tiny area of precip. I was wondering if the moisture to the east was interfering with it.

[The 4 Seasons]

42 minutes ago, weathafella said:

FWIW (not much). ICON looks decent 

but what does the RPM say?

[Baroclinic Zone]

That’s a sweet looking RGEM run.  Think the pros said it all,

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

but what does the RPM say?

Revolutions per minute>iconic?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nice to have the bad trend at least interrupted a bit...I think that will continue tonight. 

[TalcottWx]

H7 looks good? Sign me up. All you gotta say. But we do need a confident move overnight to justify winter storm warnings 

[George001]

The shortwave is way too powerful and goes negatively tilted too early for the weaker solutions to even be a concern.

[Greg]

Don't go with only one model but we'll see if the 0Z models tonight start to trend like it. Here's crossing my fingers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That RGEM track is what I expect will happen.

Same...looks like the western EPS members.