Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Let’s  have an All SNE throw down for the snow capital this year ala Cobra Kai (I’m watching now) 

Me Kevin Runnaway and the wolf man can represent CT (miyagi do)

Ray Scott and Will Can be NE Mass (cobra Kai) 

And Taunton George and the SE crew can be Eagle Fang 

Winner gets all the jacks this year.

If you haven’t watched this season if Cobra Kai you probably have no idea what I’m talking about lol 

I’m down . Are they all down with OPP?

[78Blizzard]

30 minutes ago, weathafella said:

By BOS I mean Logan.   Still in CH-I mile from “the street” shopping center.

Ok.  I guess by that measure I'm about 13 miles sw then.

[PowderBeard]

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I like how the Nam is pulling moisture up from way down in the Caribbean and the Gulf at 57 hr.....always a good sign for an out of control 18z run, unless of course it fumbles the handoff

18z NAM runs are always the juiciest. 

[JC-CT]

not ideal but it would be snow

[ineedsnow]

3 to 6 on the NAM I would lock that

[Damage In Tolland]

Look at this.  We’ve got ourselves a Thursday nite intimate early Friday snowstorm. Go figure 

[weathafella]

I was thinking 18z was not as amped and then I read posts and figured I was whacked.....

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at this.  We’ve got ourselves a Thursday nite intimate early Friday snowstorm. Go figure 

OH... well yeah.  I mean we've all been buckin' for you to be asleep for the entire duration of this thing so it TOtally makes sense. lol -

[weathafella]

NAM clears it from SNE mid afternoon Friday 

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

I was thinking 18z was not as amped and then I read posts and figured these guys are whacko's

fyp.

[Greg]

Not looking too bad.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, weathafella said:

I was thinking 18z was not as amped and then I read posts and figured I was whacked.....

I'm only at 42 hours; initially it would appear destined to that - but we'll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw - ...this new NAM solution is shortening the wave spacing between the eastern Lakes S/W in the nearer term, wrt to the S/W responsible for the 7th.

It also appears to be bringing the latter eastward on a shallower trajectory -

These are not encouraging signs for those wanting to see amplitude.

But,... NAM outside of 48 hours. 

We are still just now in process of modulating the SPV over the NE Pac...and so it's still not completely in the realized/physical soundings yet, ...so these may be less important observations at this particular time.

I think @Allsnowmade that same observation....not good. Damn mid atl event is slowing...

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

I was thinking 18z was not as amped and then I read posts and figured I was whacked.....

It came in shallower angle like Tip mentioned. It does go negative with the trough sooner but the trough itself isn't quite as deep. But the overall look is pretty nice....you have the vort curling up from the Delmarva into LI and then the Cape....that is a classic scenario for midlevel goodies over SNE.

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It came in shallower angle like Tip mentioned. It does go negative with the trough sooner but the trough itself isn't quite as deep. But the overall look is pretty nice....you have the vort curling up from the Delmarva into LI and then the Cape....that is a classic scenario for midlevel goodies over SNE.

there's no "OTS" with that trough orientation 

[eduggs]

Maybe some were fooled by the earlier arrival? The 18z looked pretty clearly less impressive aloft to me.

[Greg]

Out to 75 hours on the NAM here. 

[78Blizzard]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Drama in South Wey?

Lack of snow has everyone on edge...

[greenmtnwx]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Maybe some were fooled by the earlier arrival? The 18z looked pretty clearly less impressive aloft to me.

Hence my tough early-season induced snow goggle comments. It is worse and has been trending that way from west to east the last day and a half. But we are all desperate, even the pros. 

[eduggs]

We'll happily take our 2-6" with decent ratios, but that NAM run is not what most are looking for. Also no sign of the kind of trend we're looking for.

Flatter, less wave spacing, later developing, and SLP further offshore.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah... the shallower ejection just means it isn't getting as much feed-back from outside --> in, with it's physical nesting in the flow.

The S/W itself appears to have the same wind flag velocities.   Again ...it hasn't changed - the larger influential sensitivity with this ,the ridge immediately behind needs to balloon more like it did in the overnight runs and keep going ( if you want bigger drama   heh ).

 

[greenmtnwx]

Just now, eduggs said:

We'll happily take our 2-6" with decent ratios, but that NAM run is not what most are looking for. Also no sign of the kind of trend we're looking for.

Flatter, less wave spacing, later developing, and SLP further offshore.

Bingo.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

At Least we have some January rain tomorrow and Sunday to build more character  

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It came in shallower angle like Tip mentioned. It does go negative with the trough sooner but the trough itself isn't quite as deep. But the overall look is pretty nice....you have the vort curling up from the Delmarva into LI and then the Cape....that is a classic scenario for midlevel goodies over SNE.

Maybe it goes negative earlier in time, but it doesn't look like it does so earlier in geographic location. I don't care if it does negative tomorrow if it does so in Nova Scotia.

I don't hate the look, I just liked previous runs much better.

[weathafella]

I looked for MILF in rain and came up with sites I am reluctant to visit.   Enjoy!

[eduggs]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I was thinking 18z was not as amped and then I read posts and figured I was whacked.....

Nope, you're not whacked. The previous run was better. Little bit of wishcasting going on.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Greg said:

Out to 75 hours on the NAM here. 

Pivotalweather.com 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I looked for MILF in rain and came up with sites I am reluctant to visit.   Enjoy!

reluctant because...?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Maybe it goes negative earlier in time, but it doesn't look like it does so earlier in geographic location. I don't care if it does negative tomorrow if it does so in Nova Scotia.

I don't hate the look, I just liked previous runs much better.

No argument 12z looked better.

My gut still says this comes back some though.

[Greg]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pivotalweather.com 

Yup.