Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Listen if you dish it you take it a bit. It’s just a lesson in the idea that nothing has to be 100% or 0. There is a middle ground and sometimes you have to ebb with it. DIT talks in absolutes like things (weather) are already a given outcome, when they haven’t even occurred yet. Bad, dramatic look. I don’t want 40/70 going down that rathole. 

Trust me man, my original stuff from November gets graded as is, but I will not hesitate to blog about how we are doomed if I see fit. And if Friday still looks like crap tomorrow, then I will change my tune.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Listen if you dish it you take it a bit. It’s just a lesson in the idea that nothing has to be 100% or 0. There is a middle ground and sometimes you have to ebb with it. DIT talks in absolutes like things (weather) are already a given outcome, when they haven’t even occurred yet. Bad, dramatic look. I don’t want 40/70 going down that rathole. 

Hey, if you ever honestly feel I am doing that, then I appreciate the critique. No offense taken.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd like for you to define that. Is that because we are using our experience to say how it could come more west and that is being misunderstood as someone with weenie glasses on? I think we all acknowledged why guidance is doing what it has shown for 12z solutions. 

It's a weather forum where we are talking out loud about possible outcomes. If you put a gun to my head, I'd be more leery of my earlier thoughts, but I guess I'm not sure why you said what you said. 

Drama in South Wey?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Drama in South Wey?

I feel like I’m the only one without it. People are unglued. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd like for you to define that. Is that because we are using our experience to say how it could come more west and that is being misunderstood as someone with weenie glasses on? I think we all acknowledged why guidance is doing what it has shown for 12z solutions. 

It's a weather forum where we are talking out loud about possible outcomes. If you put a gun to my head, I'd be more leery of my earlier thoughts, but I guess I'm not sure why you said what you said. 

Yea, I went out of my way to articulate how I was following my gut, while still acknowledging the alternative. I will be the first to admit than I can come off as arrogant online, but I don't think in this instance that this is the case.

[greenmtnwx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hey, if you ever honestly feel I am doing that, then I appreciate the critique. No offense taken.

Ehh, usually not at all. The last couple weeks maybe it’s crept in a little bit as far as the overall pattern and this system for Friday. A little bit defiant in view of the data. Hey it’s human nature. The patterns been a meat grinder, which would lend some strong credence to this one being East and strung out too. Not that you or Will have to back away from it, but the persistent optimism might be a little whiff of weenie lol. Just an observation. Tough YTD.

[Modfan2]

Looks like Ryan taking the OTS gamble three days out. 
 

 

[greenmtnwx]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd like for you to define that. Is that because we are using our experience to say how it could come more west and that is being misunderstood as someone with weenie glasses on? I think we all acknowledged why guidance is doing what it has shown for 12z solutions. 

It's a weather forum where we are talking out loud about possible outcomes. If you put a gun to my head, I'd be more leery of my earlier thoughts, but I guess I'm not sure why you said what you said. 

See above to 40/70. Don’t you mets go weenie on us lol.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

Looks like Ryan taking the OTS gamble three days out. 
 

 

huh?

[dryslot]

The graupler should be coming to visit soon, Always love his thoughts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Ehh, usually not at all. The last couple weeks maybe it’s crept in a little bit as far as the overall pattern and this system for Friday. A little bit defiant in view of the data. Hey it’s human nature. The patterns been a meat grinder, which would lend some strong credence to this one being East and strung out too. Not that you or Will have to back away from it, but the persistent optimism might be a little whiff of weenie lol. Just an observation. Tough YTD.

Yea, I get it.....to be fair, though....I also think its important not to waffle in the medium range, too. The data has still yet to be sampled...I think before that take place, there is still room for subjectivity. However, that changes tomorrow. Don't forget...I never bought into the N trends on that last one....so its not just a weenie bias.

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Looks like Ryan taking the OTS gamble three days out. 
 

 

He just tweeted about plowable snow ten minutes ago.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Hoth said:

He just tweeted about plowable snow ten minutes ago.

Lol ya looks like Kevin typed it Thursday night start 

[JC-CT]

further east, but already negative tilted on the NAM at 51z.

[ineedsnow]

NAM going to be west I think

[Damage In Tolland]

Thursday night 

 

[OceanStWx]

00z clusters sort of flipped from 24 hours ago. It was a 55/45 splits OTS vs tucked, and now that's 46/54. Members that liked the tucked clusters included 65% of CMC (), 55% of GEFS, and 48% of EPS. But that still just means that on the whole the ensemble suites remain pretty split on which way to go. 

The good thing is that the agreement between members that produce more QPF than the mean and those that don't. The flatter the flow the more like it is to scrape and scoot. Pump the downstream ridging a little and deepen the trof and the QPF is higher than the mean.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Drama in South Wey?

Let’s  have an All SNE throw down for the snow capital this year ala Cobra Kai (I’m watching now) 

Me Kevin Runnaway and the wolf man can represent CT (miyagi do)

Ray Scott and Will Can be NE Mass (cobra Kai) 

And Taunton George and the SE crew can be Eagle Fang 

Winner gets all the jacks this year.

If you haven’t watched this season if Cobra Kai you probably have no idea what I’m talking about lol 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

NAM going to be west I think

hard to hate the look?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lights have an All SNE New England throw down for the best snow weenies ala Cobra Kai (I’m watching now) 

Kevin can represent CT (miyagi do)

Ray Scott and Will Can be NE Mass (cobra Kai) 

And Taunton George and the SE crew can be Eagle Fang 

winner gets all the jacks this year 

Will and Scott are eastern MA....not NE.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Will and Scott are eastern MA....not NE.

Everyone’s north east mass from my perspective lol 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

hard to hate the look?

I like this look

[PowderBeard]

NAM is going to be good. Big jump from 12z. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

I like this look

More amped so far 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

I like this look

first flakes before the strike of midnight? uh oh!

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw - ...this new NAM solution is shortening the wave spacing between the eastern Lakes S/W in the nearer term, wrt to the S/W responsible for the 7th.

It also appears to be bringing the latter eastward on a shallower trajectory -

These are not encouraging signs for those wanting to see amplitude.

But,... NAM outside of 48 hours. 

We are still just now in process of modulating the SPV over the NE Pac...and so it's still not completely in the realized/physical soundings yet, ...so these may be less important observations at this particular time.

[Spanks45]

I like how the Nam is pulling moisture up from way down in the Caribbean and the Gulf at 57 hr.....always a good sign for an out of control 18z run, unless of course it fumbles the handoff

[JC-CT]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw - ...this new NAM solution is shortening the wave spacing between the eastern Lakes S/W in the nearer term, wrt to the S/W responsible for the 7th.

It also appears to be bringing the latter eastward on a shallower trajectory -

These are not encouraging signs for those wanting to see amplitude.

if it's going to punt east, might as well do it at our latitude

[dryslot]

Faster then 12z too

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Faster then 12z too

Well ...yeah. The shallower trajectory - I mean in conceptual physical sense, shrink the Y-coordinate, the X-tends to increase ...i.e., speeds up.