Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Glad someone sees it like me lol 

I think we are all biased by our location.   I’m 10 miles SW of BOS so obviously I look at it differently.

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I saw the same, way too many meager members at this lead time. Looks like the gfs may have had the right idea all along of more a grazer, reeling the euro in from it’s zonked hugger and interior crusher idea.

Neither the Euro or the GFS has covered itself in glory thus far.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Glad someone sees it like me lol 

I see it the same way provided the initialization of that vort is correct...we should know soon.

[greenmtnwx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm obviously nervous and can see how this can end up a nuisance...but more often than not, the wild convective goose changes end up more fact than fiction. Maybe it will work out like that this time....we should know in just under 24 hours, maybe even tonight.

Wavering? Don’t tell me the December call that went up in flames has you needing to push all your chips to the middle with pocket 6s? It’s still a little early, maybe just try to build your stack back up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think we are all biased by our location.   I’m 10 miles SW of BOS so obviously I look at it differently.

As is, the mid level snows are near I95.......I don't think a 75-100mi correction west if that vort gets sampled stronger is a particularly tall task.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see it the same way provided the initialization of that wort is correct...we should know soon.

Heights across the Puget Sound area look pretty close to reality with the 12z GFS. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As is, the mid level snows are near I95.......I don't think a 75-100mi correction west if that vort gets sampled stronger is a particularly tall task.

Could also go the other way too though and it’s congrats cape cod on 1-3”

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Wavering? Don’t tell me the December call that went up in flames has you needing to push all your chips to the middle with pocket 6s? It’s still a little early, maybe just try to build your stack back up. 

It has nothing to do with that. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything....I don't control the weather.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Glad someone sees it like me lol 

JMWO. I know nada. Obviously, it can all jump back nw some and we are standing with our frozen weenies in our hands.

[greenmtnwx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It has nothing to do with that. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything.

It just seems like you’ve gotten a little stubbornly arrogant about your calls even in the face of significantly changing data. Not usually your way, leave that to DIT. Steady as she goes, still early, no need for the Hail Mary. 

[78Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think we are all biased by our location.   I’m 10 miles SW of BOS so obviously I look at it differently.

Did you move?  I thought you were 5 miles from Boston.  I'm 11 miles SW of Boston.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Will you be up past 1AM tonight?

I usually am. Whether I post or not, the weenie eye has a looksy when there is a trackable event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

It just seems like you’ve gotten a little stubbornly arrogant about your calls even in the face of significantly changing data. Not usually your way, leave that to DIT. Steady as she goes, still early, no need for the Hail Mary. 

I just made a first call 2 hours ago, and explicitly stated that I was nervous about it and hedging....how should I have conveyed it to sound less arrogant?

What call was I arrogant about and refused to change? If this looks like shit tmw AM, my mind will change.

[ORH_wxman]

Regardless of any actual trends in the height field or vortmax, I do think the storm circulation will end up tucked a bit closer to the max PVA than some of these runs show. If you get your conveyor all mucked up chasing convection, then you'll have some uglier looking solutions that may or may not be model phantoms. Sometimes the convection is correct...but I'd be leery of it, especially on hyrdostatic model guidance.

That said, there are multiple other factors such as the heights in SE Canada which are important for ridging downstream of the shortwave and of course, the shortwave itself. Then you have the western ridge too as Tip and Chris have already discussed a few times.

[greenmtnwx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just made a first call 2 hours ago, and explicitly stated that I was nervous about it and hedging....how should I have conveyed to sound less arrogant?

I’m just saying, you can still run the ball. Pick up first downs, it’s early. No need to break from the game plan, yet. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

It just seems like you’ve gotten a little stubbornly arrogant about your calls even in the face of significantly changing data. Not usually your way, leave that to DIT. Steady as she goes, still early, no need for the Hail Mary. 

You need to get out more and interact and not be socially inept like this. It’s simply not healthy 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

I’m just saying, you can still run the ball. Pick up first downs, it’s early. No need to break from the game plan, yet. 

I haven't changed a thing with respect to my thoughts on the season. December didn't work out...I've moved on.

[greenmtnwx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You need to get out more and interact and not be socially inept like this. It’s simply not healthy 

Hah just busting chops DIT just like you do all the time. Drama can be your middle name you know. Take it in stride. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, greenmtnwx said:

Hah just busting chops DIT just like you do all the time. Drama can be your middle name you know. Take it in stride. 

Drama In Tolland?

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

It just seems like you’ve gotten a little stubbornly arrogant about your calls even in the face of significantly changing data. Not usually your way, leave that to DIT. Steady as she goes, still early, no need for the Hail Mary. 

Would you be extending that to the other very experienced New England meteorologists who are also on the side of something closer more tucked, more significant etc.?  or are you just saying that to a guy who is educated and informed but doesn’t do this for a living?

[greenmtnwx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Drama In Tolland?

Listen if you dish it you take it a bit. It’s just a lesson in the idea that nothing has to be 100% or 0. There is a middle ground and sometimes you have to ebb with it. DIT talks in absolutes like things (weather) are already a given outcome, when they haven’t even occurred yet. Bad, dramatic look. I don’t want 40/70 going down that rathole. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You need to get out more and interact and not be socially inept like this. It’s simply not healthy 

Take him out for a few IPA’s to show him the way.

[dryslot]

I'm sure the Nam will come in and calm everyone down................

[greenmtnwx]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Would you be extending that to the other very experienced New England meteorologists who are also on the side of something closer more tucked, more significant etc.?  or are you just saying that to a guy who is educated and informed but doesn’t do this for a living?

As in Will? No I’d extend him more courtesy, brilliant meteorologist. Although if you pinched me hard enough I’d say this awful start has us all a little off our game and with a little snow-colored glasses on, even Darth Vader himself. Just human nature. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dryslot said:

I'm sure the Nam will come in and calm everyone down................

15z SREFS already calmed me down 

[Hoth]

Some music for the WOR jumpers. Just remember the water's cold and there aren't enough boats.

 

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Did you move?  I thought you were 5 miles from Boston.  I'm 11 miles SW of Boston.

By BOS I mean Logan.   Still in CH-I mile from “the street” shopping center.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Hah just busting chops DIT just like you do all the time. Drama can be your middle name you know. Take it in stride. 

As it were my mellow! Enjoy the heavy snows coming 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Take him out for a few IPA’s to show him the way.

After that you can take him to the weed farm,, show him the best water bongs?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

As in Will? No I’d extend him more courtesy, brilliant meteorologist, although if you pinched me hard enough I’d say this awful start has us all a little off our game and with a little snow-colored glasses on, even Darth Vader himself. Just human nature. 

I'd like for you to define that. Is that because we are using our experience to say how it could come more west and that is being misunderstood as someone with weenie glasses on? I think we all acknowledged why guidance is doing what it has shown for 12z solutions. 

It's a weather forum where we are talking out loud about possible outcomes. If you put a gun to my head, I'd be more leery of my earlier thoughts, but I guess I'm not sure why you said what you said.