Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah… by this time tomorrow it may not be starting at all

Nah, you should get something regardless. Either 6-10” if it comes back beefier or like 2-4” if craps itself. 

[Sn0waddict]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Worst winter ever

It’s January 4th btw.

[MJO812]

Eps further east and weak

 

I will be praying to the snow gods later on

[weathafella]

Man it’s a lot more fun in here when just the late nighters are analyzing without the rip and readers....

[Go Kart Mozart]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe it's just me, but I kind of like this look...

 

Would we want to see more diffluence down stream from the vortmax?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Man it’s a lot more fun in here when just the late nighters are analyzing without the rip and readers....

I know. My favorite time as well 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey Captain caveman, the point is you have folks ready to jump off a bridge over one run of the goofus when we’re still 60-72 hrs out. Behaving Like the 12z runs today are the divinities answer on this.  

i know what the point is, you clown. but I don't think that it is a point that needs to be made over and over again. let the weenies be weenies.

[weathafella]

If you look at eps, you’ll note that the stronger solutions are all tucked.   Don’t be shocked if some of you taint and blame the euro while the euro family ensembles hinted all along.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Would we want to see more diffluence down stream from the vortmax?

Yeah you want to see that ridging poking further north into Quebec, but in my experience, model guidance tends to underestimate the ultimate strength of these consolidated vortmaxes and associated amplification. Maybe it doesn't happen this time, but I'd be somewhat surprised if we don't start seeing a bit of a shift back west all else equal. If we get more confluence up north, then obviously that would offset a stronger vortmax.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

If you look at eps, you’ll note that the stronger solutions are all tucked.   Don’t be shocked if some of you taint and blame the euro while the euro family ensembles hinted all along.

We'll probably be high fiving online at 115am tonight.

[CoastalWx]

It is clear that srn stream of vorticity and the leftover convection is playing a role. But again, if that s/w comes in a bit stronger (and very possible it does as it is sampled better) then it won't matter much. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

If you look at eps, you’ll note that the stronger solutions are all tucked.   Don’t be shocked if some of you taint and blame the euro while the euro family ensembles hinted all along.

Still a good spread even at 72h....clearly a decent cluster still west of the BM.

 

 

[78Blizzard]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's all you need to see. No question this will be much further west than last system. 

Expect big changes in model runs tonight or tomorrow.

Euro will be 75-100 mi NW at 0z and will hold serve for the remainder.  JMO.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Still a good spread even at 72h....clearly a decent cluster still west of the BM.

 

 

Yep.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still a good spread even at 72h....clearly a decent cluster still west of the BM.

 

 

Let’s hope the west are right the mean moved pretty Far East with those far eastern members.

[Allsnow]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Woof most of those members are bad, about 20% get 3-6” + for SE NE.  The vast majority are a whiff to 1-3”.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Woof most of those members are bad, about 20% get 3-6” + for SE NE.  The vast majority are a whiff to 1-3”.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Woof most of those members are bad, about 20% get 3-6” + for SE NE.  The vast majority are a whiff to 1-3”.

Well, all of the ensembles deal with the same ingest...if they all are underestimating the vort, then it shouldn't be a surprise. If it still looks like this in 24 hours, okay....but I have a hunch those 970s on the western end of the envelop may gain more credence.

[JC-CT]

p06 is like a Rorschach test

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Woof most of those members are bad, about 20% get 3-6” + for SE NE.  The vast majority are a whiff to 1-3”.

Do you like snow ?

[Great Snow 1717]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We'll probably be high fiving online at 115am tonight.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Great visual to illustrate how your sense of humor usually lands with the majority of the forum.

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If you look at eps, you’ll note that the stronger solutions are all tucked.   Don’t be shocked if some of you taint and blame the euro while the euro family ensembles hinted all along.

WTTTE 

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We'll probably be high fiving online at 115am tonight.

Cannot wait bro. Middle  of the night, waiting up for model runs. Love I!

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great visual to illustrate how your sense of humor usually lands with the majority of the forum.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm obviously nervous and can see how this can end up a nuisance...but more often than not, the wild convective goose changes end up more fact than fiction. Maybe it will work out like that this time....we should know in just under 24 hours, maybe even tonight.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Woof most of those members are bad, about 20% get 3-6” + for SE NE.  The vast majority are a whiff to 1-3”.

I saw the same, way too many meager members at this lead time. Looks like the gfs may have had the right idea all along of more a grazer, reeling the euro in from it’s zonked hugger and interior crusher idea.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I saw the same, way too many meager members at this lead time. Looks like the gfs may have had the right idea all along of more a grazer, reeling the euro in from it’s zonked hugger and interior crusher idea.

Glad someone sees it like me lol 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I saw the same, way too many meager members at this lead time. Looks like the gfs may have had the right idea all along of more a grazer, reeling the euro in from it’s zonked hugger and interior crusher idea.

Will you be up past 1AM tonight?