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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, dryslot said:

Nothing to slow this one down either so high totals will have a limit.

Eh, while this won’t be a blizzard of 78 redux or anything crazy like that, it could still be a really big storm. In my area I’m more worried about getting screwed by ptype than the pattern being too progressive and quick moving. Even a 10-12 hour quick moving bomb can easily produce over a foot. If the low gets down to the 970s or 960s like some of the ensembles are hinting at, areas that stay all snow could possibly even approach or exceed 2 feet. The pattern was fairly progressive in Feb 2015, didnt stop my area from getting 3 storms with 12+ inches of snow and blizzard conditions.

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Not to turn on the d-drip and walk away but ... just got around to looking over some of those individual 12z GEF members. 

HUGEly improved consensus over 00z for one just in general.  But, 10 or so individual members have very large snow ( yes SNOW!) totals falling in a short period of time between 144 and 156/168 hours.  The storm is moving right along, but in those members, it appears enough anyway. They cross the bomb threshold, ... large QPF totals on the west side of neg tilted trough/wind max along ideal trajectory; riding up immediate astride NJ-MA. There is probably has excessive frontogen UVM banding in the I-95 collocation...  probably why they are turning the moisture upside down.

I mean ... not to get into details.  LOL

No but it is a lot of fun to see this cinema... I give you that.  It's been a while since we could enjoy a good game of speculation pong

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43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to turn on the d-drip and walk away but ... just got around to looking over some of those individual 12z GEF members. 

HUGEly improved consensus over 00z for one just in general.  But, 10 or so individual members have very large snow ( yes SNOW!) totals falling in a short period of time between 144 and 156/168 hours.  The storm is moving right along, but in those members, it appears enough anyway. They cross the bomb threshold, ... large QPF totals on the west side of neg tilted trough/wind max along ideal trajectory; riding up immediate astride NJ-MA. There is probably has excessive frontogen UVM banding in the I-95 collocation...  probably why they are turning the moisture upside down.

I mean ... not to get into details.  LOL

No but it is a lot of fun to see this cinema... I give you that.  It's been a while since we could enjoy a good game of speculation pong

Turn on the d drip and walk away lol

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