dryslot Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 18z GEFS, Lot of west amped members in here but a lot of spread to boot as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z GEFS, Lot of west amped members in here but a lot of spread to boot as well. That 969 just east of ACK looks good to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Read it wrong but that's some asute deep thinking Ray. Woah never knew All I mean is that the NAO block is gone, so it's still possible to get porked....but progressive flow mitigates that risk to a degree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: That 969 just east of ACK looks good to me. Sign me up for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Nothing to slow this one down either so high totals will have a limit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z GEFS, Lot of west amped members in here but a lot of spread to boot as well. West amped is good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z GEFS, Lot of west amped members in here but a lot of spread to boot as well. I'll take the 969mb just east of the cape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Nothing to slow this one down either so high totals will have a limit. Eh, while this won’t be a blizzard of 78 redux or anything crazy like that, it could still be a really big storm. In my area I’m more worried about getting screwed by ptype than the pattern being too progressive and quick moving. Even a 10-12 hour quick moving bomb can easily produce over a foot. If the low gets down to the 970s or 960s like some of the ensembles are hinting at, areas that stay all snow could possibly even approach or exceed 2 feet. The pattern was fairly progressive in Feb 2015, didnt stop my area from getting 3 storms with 12+ inches of snow and blizzard conditions. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z GEFS, Lot of west amped members in here but a lot of spread to boot as well. I’ll take my chances with amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: Nothing to slow this one down either so high totals will have a limit. Weenies will weenie out regardless. Set the limit at jacks of 10” but weenie goggles will buy into the run to run 18” Kuchera nocturnal emissions. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't care what you call RNA. What does your R stand for? R for Ray ? Secondary question .. do you call the inverse + RNA? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What does your R stand for? R for Ray ? Secondary question .. do you call the inverse + RNA? Wasn't there a poster by the name of RNA at Eastern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What does your R stand for? R for Ray ? Secondary question .. do you call the inverse + RNA? Old terminology was PNA and RNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Old terminology was PNA and RNA. But what did the antiquated R stand for ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: But what did the antiquated R stand for ? Reverse Here’s a journal article with it. https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/journals/clim/12/6/1520-0442_1999_012_1796_lswral_2.0.co_2.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Not to turn on the d-drip and walk away but ... just got around to looking over some of those individual 12z GEF members. HUGEly improved consensus over 00z for one just in general. But, 10 or so individual members have very large snow ( yes SNOW!) totals falling in a short period of time between 144 and 156/168 hours. The storm is moving right along, but in those members, it appears enough anyway. They cross the bomb threshold, ... large QPF totals on the west side of neg tilted trough/wind max along ideal trajectory; riding up immediate astride NJ-MA. There is probably has excessive frontogen UVM banding in the I-95 collocation... probably why they are turning the moisture upside down. I mean ... not to get into details. LOL No but it is a lot of fun to see this cinema... I give you that. It's been a while since we could enjoy a good game of speculation pong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Reverse Here’s a journal article with it. https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/journals/clim/12/6/1520-0442_1999_012_1796_lswral_2.0.co_2.pdf The scientific community calls it PNA though . As far as we know, they always have . It’s either a + or a - PNA in 1984-2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The scientific community calls it PNA though . As far as we know, they always have . It’s either a + or a - PNA in 1984-2022 I just linked you a scientific article from 1998 referring to -PNA as RNA. But okay. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 This is just an arbitrary member .. but there a lot with this look - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: I just linked you a scientific article from 1998 referring to -PNA as RNA. But okay. Similar to a TT post … 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: What does your R stand for? R for Ray ? Secondary question .. do you call the inverse + RNA? Reverse. I didn't come up with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to turn on the d-drip and walk away but ... just got around to looking over some of those individual 12z GEF members. HUGEly improved consensus over 00z for one just in general. But, 10 or so individual members have very large snow ( yes SNOW!) totals falling in a short period of time between 144 and 156/168 hours. The storm is moving right along, but in those members, it appears enough anyway. They cross the bomb threshold, ... large QPF totals on the west side of neg tilted trough/wind max along ideal trajectory; riding up immediate astride NJ-MA. There is probably has excessive frontogen UVM banding in the I-95 collocation... probably why they are turning the moisture upside down. I mean ... not to get into details. LOL No but it is a lot of fun to see this cinema... I give you that. It's been a while since we could enjoy a good game of speculation pong Turn on the d drip and walk away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I will take the 975 over Vermont. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is just an arbitrary member .. but there a lot with this look - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Some huggers/inland members of EPS but overall looks pretty solid for widespread good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: All I mean is that the NAO block is gone, so it's still possible to get porked....but progressive flow mitigates that risk to a degree. Thanks for stopping by -nao and being utterly useless. See ya in April… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thanks for stopping by -nao and being utterly useless. See ya in April… I think we'll do okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we'll do okay. Pna > nao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pna > nao 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pna > nao Certainly not the case for YBY. The idea is to time things right with transient blocking in the North Atlantic. Ala 2014-15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Its easy to shit on the NAO right now, but its misguided.....shit on the record RNA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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