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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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Kitzbuhel Craver

Kitzbuhel Craver

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 3:29 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree. When sema folk talk about crushing for most, we know they mean the little bubble that stretches from fenway pahk to taunton. 

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I get super nervous of any “Gets sema really good” utterances. Never translates well for us. I do think it gets pulled back West by go time, but I hate when those descriptors start being implemented. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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My own take aways from the overnight ...

late start this morning -

1 .. the 00z GEFs along with the operational version, obviously made huge leap toward the previous Euro.  While the Euro operational solution ( typical frustration) slacked SE while shedding some total wave space potency.   I believe this is the early phases of consensus work.  It doesn't mean the final solution exists between the 00z respective positions/attributes, per se.  It may end up turning out that way.  But the 06z GEFs is nearly ideal in terms of climate signal, with the mean of the cluster both deeper more nucleated, but also routing quintessentially for targeting NYC W-NE 'burbs, CT, NW RI, interior MA, S NH and D.E.M.  

2 .. the governing S/W mechanics at 06z this morning, are still embedded, but just beginning to establish identity here:

image.png.c9fc2704d90dd2fc199900658021bedf.png

...That 'splitting' has to get underway ... and actually BE representative in the initialization/population of the model grids.   I have long been trying to emphasize that there is a kind of 'temporal boundary,' the other side of which exist a more focused truth.  Prior to that, the solutions were teetering as to how much mechanics get pulled out and ejected down stream as the S/W we've been tracking.... vs, how much is conserved/ retrogrades with the aspects that goes west under the EPO domain space:

image.png.199dc1e064aecc80a9fc6ee57fd30115.png

... This has been a unusual 'genesis of threat assessment" scenario.  More typically, these S/W origins take place from other events ...way upstream over the breadth of the Pacific...even traceable back to Japan/ EAMT field ejection.  Sometimes coming over Kamchatka and NE Siberia ..etc; thus, the way they've behaved/trended in the flow lends to predictive advantages.  In this situation, the S/W did not exist, until that split evolution, a process that was always scheduled to take place today.   It's why some of us have been hitting Wednesday as the real consensus maker solution spread ( most likely ...).  But I feel that these runs today are going to begin seeing the result/ingesting some of the post visualization actually in the materialized sounding grid... I mean, one advantage of this is that almost immediately upon the sever and eject, the S/W is entered the physical/balloon soundings ... so,  it will be interesting to see if/how/what comes of that.  

I still believe this is a candidate for potential short term corrections - example Boxing Day storm, 2010 - not as an analog, but to exemplify concept...  I do think it is interesting, however, the 00z GFS/NAM ...American cluster et al, seemed to beat that out, and prior to said bifurcation of that SPV as annotated above. Meanwhile, the Euro broke continuity with it's weaker brush by solution...

3 ..Once we get on the post side of the above evolution, for those into NAM solutions ... be leery of NW biases.   The NAM does this from time to time with coastal/near coastal cyclogenesis, routing/deepening lows too far NW.  I don't think the 06z solution makes as much sense, as the mid trop forcing is S of the its 06z low. The right exit region of the mid level torpedo wind max is C-S NJ to C-Cod. We'll have to monitor that - the lead shallow CAA will probably lay down a sfc -800mb thermal packing, and between 72 to particularly 84 hours out ( duh! ) the NAM is less likely resolving that particularity - the detonation of quasi-Miller B will probably take place where UVM establishes over/near that lvl frontal slope, because that is where inflow jets turn skyward. Once that happens, the low won't 'jump' NW to NYC... 

4 .. I'm not certain the Euro can't fall victim to the uncertainty over how much gets ejected out of a SPV disintegration that hasn't erstwhile even taken place. I am not really sold on the 00z modulation, no more so than I was buying the previous euphoric solutions.  

Conclusion, I think there is still a better consensus out there ... prooobably materializing during today, but particularly tonight's run may be more critical.  Less changing/modulations, run-to-run, will likely begin at that time/ become more trustworthy.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2022 at 3:44 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

 

My own take aways from the overnight ...

late start this morning -

1 .. the 00z GEFs along with the operational version, obviously made huge leap toward the previous Euro.  While the Euro operational solution ( typical frustration) slacked SE while shedding some total wave space potency.   I believe this is the early phases of consensus work.  It doesn't mean the final solution exists between the 00z respective positions/attributes, per se.  I may end up turning out that way.  But the 06z GEFs is nearly ideal in turns of climate signal, with the mean of the cluster both deeper more nucleated, but also routing quintessentially for targeting NYC W-NE 'burbs, CT, NW RI, interior MA, S NH and D.E.M.  

2 .. the governing S/W mechanics at 06z this morning, are still embedded, but just beginning to establish identity here:

image.png.c9fc2704d90dd2fc199900658021bedf.png

...That 'splitting' has to get underway ... and actually BE representative in the initialization/population of the model grids.   I have long been trying to emphasize that there is a kind of 'temporal boundary,' the other side of which exist a more focused truth.  Prior to that, the solutions were teetering as to how much mechanics get pulled out and ejected down stream as the S/W we've been tracking.... vs, how much is conserved/ retrogrades with the aspects the goes west under the EPO domain space:

image.png.199dc1e064aecc80a9fc6ee57fd30115.png

... This has been a unusual 'genesis of threat assessment" scenario.  More typically, these S/W origins take place from other events ...way upstream over the breadth of the Pacific...even traceable back to Japan/ EAMT field ejection.  Sometimes coming over Kamchatka and NE Siberia ..etc, and the way the behave in the flow and observation there in, lend to predictive advantages.  In this situation, the S/W did not exist, until that split evolution, a process was always scheduled to take place today.   It's why some of us have been hitting Wednesday as the real consensus maker solution spread ( most likely ...).  But I feel that these runs today are going to begin seeing the result/ingesting some of the post visualization actually in the materialized sounding grid... I mean, one advantage of this is that almost immediately upon the sever and eject, the S/W is entered the physical/balloon soundings ... so,  it will be interesting to see if/how/what comes of that.  

I still believe this is a candidate for potential short term corrections - example Boxing Day storm, 2010 - not as an analog, but to exemplify concept...  I do think it is interesting, however, the 00z GFS/NAM ...American cluster et al, seemed to beat that out, and prior to said bifurcation of that SPV as annotated above. Meanwhile, the Euro broke continuity with it's weaker brush by solution...

3 ..Once we get on the post side of the above evolution, for those into NAM solutions ... be leery of NW biases.   The NAM does this from time to time with coastal/near coastal cyclogenesis, routing/deepening lows too far NW.  I don't think the 06z solution makes as much sense, as the mid trop forcing is S of the its 06z low. The right exit region of the mid level torpedo wind max is C-S NJ to C-Cod. We'll have to monitor that - the lead shallow CAA will probably lay down a sfc -800mb thermal packing, and between 72 to particularly 84 hours out ( duh! ) the NAM is less likely resolving that particularity - the detonation of quasi-Miller B will probably take place where UVM establishes over/near that lvl frontal slope, because that is where inflow jets turn skyward. Once that happens, the low won't 'jump' NW to NYC... 

4 .. I'm not certain the Euro can't fall victim to the uncertainty over how much gets ejected out of a SPV disintegration that hasn't erstwhile even taken place. I am not really sold on the 00z modulation, no more so than I was buying the previous euphoric solutions.  

Conclusion, I think there is still a better consensus out there ... prooobably materializing during today, but particularly tonight's run may be more critical.  Less changing/modulations, run-to-run, will at like lessen and become more trustworthy.

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Shorter please 

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