Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

There were a couple busts in March '18 down here that got me close, but 2010 was special in that department.

March 2018 was orgasmic for me despite the bust near the start of the month....not only was I near the jackpot during a special month, but I called that a whole season nearly to a tee. Very gratifying.

Been paying for it ever since lol

[NorEastermass128]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’d be ok even with a gfs track. 

That’s probably the best case for here. 

[WinterWolf]

I thought I remember early yesterday, or Sunday Eve, folks saying that the airmass was marginal for this? What changed all of a sudden? Or was the airmass always looking decent?  Now I see folks saying it’s frigid? 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I thought I remember early yesterday, or Sunday Eve, folks saying that the airmass was marginal for this? What changed all of a sudden? Or was the airmass always looking decent?  Now I see folks saying it’s frigid? 

Who said frigid? Surface is marginal here, but interior is fine. Plenty cold enough 925-850.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I thought I remember early yesterday, or Sunday Eve, folks saying that the airmass was marginal for this? What changed all of a sudden? Or was the airmass always looking decent?  Now I see folks saying it’s frigid? 

I've only started looking at this in depth over the last day, so I can't comment on that but the cold dump preceding this looks really good.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Who said frigid? Surface is marginal here, but interior is fine. Plenty cold enough 925-850.

Surface temps are always marginal in coastals within 15-20mi of the coast. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Surface temps are always marginal in coastals within 15-20mi of the coast. 

Unless its a frigid CJ event, which this thankfully is not.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Who said frigid? Surface is marginal here, but interior is fine. Plenty cold enough 925-850.

Yeah the surface is kind of meh...not one of those systems where it's 7F at ORH when it starts, but that doesn't matter because it's plenty cold off the deck. Type of system where it might start near the coast around freezing but then it drops to like 27-28 as the storm gets cranking. Interior is prob mostly in the 20s.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Unless its a frigid CJ event, which this thankfully is not.

Plenty of time for that. 

[ORH_wxman]

Not a big surprise but the NAM won't come in as amped as 06z was looking at 48 hours.

[ineedsnow]

NCEP having problems?  NAM seems stuck

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not a big surprise but the NAM won't come in as amped as 06z was looking at 48 hours.

stuck at 36 for me

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

stuck at 36 for me

Same here on TT.

[CoastalWx]

Try other sites like Weather.cod 

[dryslot]

Its out to hr 66

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Try other sites like Weather.cod 

working there pivotal and TT not updating

[PhineasC]

Chasing that area of convection offshore again?

[dryslot]

Good thing the Nam looks like it wants to chase that convection out to the east or this would track over Hubbys head.

[ineedsnow]

hope that convection off the coast doesnt mess this up

[CoastalWx]

That's a strong s/w. I wouldn't worry about a few tstms.

[IowaStorm05]

1 hour ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

 

I hate to drag this back up after all the back and forth bickering last night...but you said you remembered it being before Christmas. Are you by chance thinking of Dec 19-20, 2009? Still not 30-35"...but it was likely double digits in Coventry going by snowfall maps. Had about 20" here in Clinton. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/19-Dec-09.html 

No because I’m December 2009 I was in Reno being buried by major snows there.

There is a dot over the spot on the map of the snowfall I was in in CT where totals were greater than 14 inches on Boxing Day. That spot is right over where I was. It’s a page or three back I posted it here 

[ORH_wxman]

Goes over ACK this run. That would be a crusher for a lot of SNE and prob into CNE.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a strong s/w. I wouldn't worry about a few tstms.

if that wasnt there I think this would have been a beastly hit.. still really good though

[CoastalWx]

What a little nuke. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Crushed…. We take 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a strong s/w. I wouldn't worry about a few tstms.

I like how the vort is pretty consolidated at the base of the shortwave on this one....that makes it harder to lose this to the east.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Meh 

[PhineasC]

I preferred 06z myself.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like how the vort is pretty consolidated at the base of the shortwave on this one....that makes it harder to lose this to the east.

Yeah agree, I don't really see convection messing that up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I love how the west guys are pissed it doesn't go over ORH