Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but if you're pimping a benchmark track, why are you saying I-95 will mix? They aren't sniffing a mix with a BM track.

Are you on the scooter train with the worry hugging? Or on the sliding east train ?

[NorEastermass128]

EoR type of storm. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Are you on the scooter train with the worry hugging? Or on the sliding east train ?

This is coming back west at least somewhat IMHO. I don't know if it will be an actual hugger, but I'd favor something inside the BM.

[CoastalWx]

To clarify, a hugger is fine west of 95 if it goes to the Cape. 

[JC-CT]

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Can we add the NAM?

Blasphemy

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'm in agreement on an inside the BM track.  I'd still feel pretty confident about mostly frozen with that track unless this comes up over CC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

To clarify, a hugger is fine west of 95 if it goes to the Cape. 

Yea, I am thinking like BM to PYM as goals posts.

[CoastalWx]

Thanks for that EPS image Will. I agree, inside of BM at the very least. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

EoR type of storm. 

Engineer of Record?

[CoastalWx]

My son showed me the GFS at like 6:30 this morning lol. Poor kid has been so disappointed.  

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

To clarify, a hugger is fine west of 95 if it goes to the Cape. 

Rgem would actually be kinda rough to watch tbh

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

To clarify, a hugger is fine west of 95 if it goes to the Cape. 

Yeah it kind of takes a wide-ish turn and then bombs rapidly, so when that happens, you can actually get it pretty close and still stay snow...plus antecedent airmass is strong. You'd prob need a canal cutter to mix 95 in this setup.

[Massplow]

What’s the timing look like?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Massplow said:

What’s the timing look like?

Looks like a predawn to mid afternoon Friday deal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like a predawn to mid afternoon Friday deal.

Man, I love those weekend lead in deals to cushion the post event blues....end that thing on a Sunday night, and I look for a family dog to kick (obviously joking Steve)

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but if you're pimping a benchmark track, why are you saying I-95 will mix? They aren't sniffing a mix with a BM track.

A due north move they’d be smelling dank wet air 

[Ginx snewx]

EPS ptype

[NorEastermass128]

I think I’m cooked with an inside BM track. Heck, even an outside BM bombing storm likely flips to rain here. What we lack in snow gets made up in spring weather. 

[NeonPeon]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A due north move they’d be smelling dank wet air 

I'm definitely smelling some hot air.

[NeonPeon]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I think I’m cooked with an inside BM track. Heck, even an outside BM bombing storm likely flips to rain here. What we lack in snow gets made up in spring weather. 

What? It gets made up with lovely mild summers. Isn't spring just ceaseless fog and mud for you, or is that just down here? Spring is my least favorite season. I never liked spring... anywhere in the US really.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I think I’m cooked with an inside BM track. Heck, even an outside BM bombing storm likely flips to rain here. What we lack in snow gets made up in spring weather. 

I def. envy your spot during the summer, but that's it lol

[Hoth]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That would....a rainer following the mid atl MECS and arctic shot would send me into major melt mode....probably one tier down from my record melt of Feb 2010.

That was a special melt. They were busing people out of the radioactive exclusion zone in eastern Mass. for weeks after that one.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I think I’m cooked with an inside BM track. Heck, even an outside BM bombing storm likely flips to rain here. What we lack in snow gets made up in spring weather. 

You’d be ok even with a gfs track. 

[SouthCoastMA]

that 6z eps mean and most of the members are great even here. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

That was a special melt. They were busing people out of the radioactive exclusion zone in eastern Mass. for weeks after that one.

That sucked, but it was such a bizarre setup and we already had two double digit storms that winter. I didn’t take it as bad.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

That was a special melt. They were busing people out of the radioactive exclusion zone in eastern Mass. for weeks after that one.

I have still never been so meteorologically frustrated as I was at that point....nothing else even compares.

[tavwtby]

I'd actually prefer an inside the BM track for mby, but that's just me, looks good region wide though for everyone to get in on some action

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have still never been so meteorologically frustrated as I was at that point....nothing else even compares.

Those Feb 2010 cutoffs were brutal down here. 10-20 miles was the difference between an inch and 8-10"

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have still never been so meteorologically frustrated as I was at that point....nothing else even compares.

There were a couple busts in March '18 down here that got me close, but 2010 was special in that department.

[Baroclinic Zone]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it kind of takes a wide-ish turn and then bombs rapidly, so when that happens, you can actually get it pretty close and still stay snow...plus antecedent airmass is strong. You'd prob need a canal cutter to mix 95 in this setup.

Thanks for backing up my thoughts.