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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

None of them

All of you worship the euro where it's just an average model.

Average is a bit harsh although it’s been less impressive lately. I think people just want to hate it. I can remember so many systems in the last 5+ years where the GFS was late to the cyclogenesis party even inside of 24hrs. I mean it was still trying to snow through a bone dry column in SNE yesterday right up until go-time so it still has plenty of physical flaws. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I love how suddenly the GFS is treated as the best model now. Ha ha…good luck with that long term. 

The days of the euro king in the 2-4 day range definitely have not occurred. I’m sure gfs will still have its issues, but the days of euro yore are gone for the time being. Still weigh EPS more than GEFS.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The days of the euro king in the 2-4 day range definitely have not occurred. I’m sure gfs will still have its issues, but the days of euro yore are gone for the time being. Still weigh EPS more than GEFS.

Yes I agree, euro has been absolutely dreadful in a few storms this year.  GFS was late to the party on this one so nod to euro on that.  Let’s see which is more consistent in the lead up to the storm.  They are about equal now in my eyes.  

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6 minutes ago, 512high said:

Scott , maybe not the thread for this....you still like Jan. 10-11 range for next to follow?

Yeah, but don’t expect 14-15 to happen. We’ll have a window for some snow chances and colder weather. Some signs a more Nina look happens later in the month with maybe a drop in the PNA, but most guidance maintains a decent ridge in the EPAC.

That’s about all I can say. Can’t say if it’s a snowy period or not. 

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2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If not for Euro chasing this convection it would ride up over SE Mass.. 

D232316C-C495-4E66-8EA4-53D607D27E7C.jpeg

Yeah those are the areas I mentioned yesterday. I sort of see this moving  due north and crossing the Cape. Maybe even near PYM. Hope not over PYM, but just my feeling. We’ll see.

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