wxsniss Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: I still think this will make us flirt with taint by the time the track is settled. At least we'll have snow cover for a few days (hopefully) Agree Frankly, any slightly outside BM tracks today make me more comfortable for our area Not wavering from my thoughts over the weekend, and still heavily weighing EPS: synoptically this is more likely to trend northwest than OTS as we get closer, especially if this shortwave is undersampled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Agree Frankly, any slightly outside BM tracks today make me more comfortable for our area Not wavering from my thoughts over the weekend, and still heavily weighing EPS: synoptically this is more likely to trend northwest than OTS as we get closer, especially if this shortwave is undersampled Total agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 OT but Euro has BOS at 0F. 18Z Tuesday 1/11. Wow! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: OT but Euro has BOS at 0F. 18Z Tuesday 1/11. Wow! Coldest in 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 EPS 0z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 29 minutes ago, wxsniss said: EPS 0z: 12z: Still a big group of huggers there. The mean is being skewed east by the 6 of 51 that are >500 miles out. Kind of validates to me the idea that the likely track is near or over the Cape/Islands or SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Still a big group of huggers there. The mean is being skewed east by the 6 of 51 that are >500 miles out. Kind of validates to me the idea that the likely track is near or over the Cape/Islands or SE MA. Gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Very ugly Euro run 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 BOX and OKX have maps out but i noticed they only go through 7AM Friday. BOX morning AFD, seems reasonable to me The highlight of the extended forecast is the growing potential for a Nor`Easter capable of producing widespread substantial snowfall for southern New England. A broad upper-level trough is progged to dig into the eastern US on Thursday supporting the development of a surface low-pressure system off the mid-Atlantic coast. This coastal low will track northeastward toward southern New England Thursday night into Friday bringing the potential for significant snowfall. There is still considerable uncertainty with respect to the track of this storm, thus there is also uncertainty in which areas will see snow (or potentially rain) and how much snow will accumulate. At this point in time, it appears that a major blockbuster winter storm will be unfavorable due to a lack of downstream blocking. Downstream blocking would support a slower moving storm capable of producing snowfall for a longer period of time resulting in higher accumulations. Despite the lack of downstream blocking, the potential for a respectable and impactful winter storm certainly remains on the table. At 96 hours out our best forecast tools lay within ensemble model guidance. There is strong agreement among the global model ensembles that the surface low will pass very close to the 70/40 bench mark. In this scenario most of southern New England would see accumulating snowfall. Ensemble mean 24 hour snowfall amounts from each of the GFS/CMC/EC models fall in the 3-6" range in the Thursday night - Friday night time period. The consensus for the "bulls eye" of highest accumulations is over the I-95 corridor. The GFS ensemble resolves a track a bit further north and west placing the heaviest snowfall over western MA and southern NH. The relatively strong agreement among global ensemble guidance right now suggests an increasing likelihood for at least an advisory level snowfall event for portions of southern New England and perhaps even a warning level event. Again, considerable uncertainty remains so we`ll continue to monitor the latest trends as the event draws nearer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Very ugly Euro run Gfs disagrees and it did well with last system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Best run of the GFS yet. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 06z NAM runs the low from Islip NY to Boston. Ugly track for most on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: 06z NAM runs the low from Islip NY to Boston. Ugly track for most on the board. unless you're freebasing, you shouldn't be looking at the 75-84HR NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: unless you're freebasing, you shouldn't be looking at the 75-84HR NAM I'm reporting what it shows, not forecasting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6Z GFS Clown and QPF 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: 06z NAM runs the low from Islip NY to Boston. Ugly track for most on the board. Flow is too fast for such an inland track. Still think a whiff is more likely than cutter. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: I'm reporting what it shows, not forecasting. Same. Just bein funny. And it's a PSA to anyone who might be using it forecasting 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just waking up, my god, what a crushing on the GFS. All downhill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 The gfs is such a terrible model, it moved like 500 miles NW with the low in 2 cycles less than 100 hours out. The European and Canadian guidance have shifted some but they always were farther west, ranging from between over se mass to just inside the benchmark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, George001 said: The gfs is such a terrible model, it moved like 500 miles NW with the low in 2 cycles less than 100 hours out. The European and Canadian guidance have shifted some but they always were farther west, ranging from between over se mass to just inside the benchmark. Euro did trash with the last storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Rgem shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I love how suddenly the GFS is treated as the best model now. Ha ha…good luck with that long term. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I love how suddenly the GFS is treated as the best model now. Ha ha…good luck with that long term. Well it's certainly not the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Well it's certainly not the euro Whats the best model now then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Whats the best model now then? None of them All of you worship the euro where it's just an average model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Gefs looks good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs looks good If things are looking like this at 12z, we might see watches as early as this evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: None of them I hate to agree with this, but I do. The ensembles are where it's at ...the OP runs are like throwing drunken darts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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