Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, ariof said:

Toggling back and forth this NAM run at 84h looks most like the 00Z CMC run which was a “George01”. 

 

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I want this again

He had an 80% chance of no pants on below that NBCCT graphic.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ya we did… totally bare. 

We had 2 inches here and so did Staffordville.  It snowed 4 days in a row like a half inch each day the 19th to the 23rd according to Coop records.  I imagine Coventry had the same. Anyways snows coming. Let's do this 

[NorthShoreWx]

9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I want this again

 

How does it work that the column did not have enough warm air for there to be sleet, so that's why Ryan thought it was actually small hail from convection?  Not saying it isn't so, but I don't understand how that would work.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I want this again

 

I remember when he did that hit.  My girlfriend was yelling at me to come in,(cuz I was outside in it, and just amazed at the intensity) cuz he was saying 6”/hr rates.  What a storm. Ended up with 33+.  
 

Boxing Day sucked for the most part..sh*tty snow growth with that pos. Iowa is all mixed up..poor sob. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

How does it work that the column did not have enough warm air for there to be sleet, so that's why Ryan thought it was actually small hail from convection?  Not saying it isn't so, but I don't understand how that would work.

Because the column was cold all the way up.  No warm layer to melt the snowflakes and then refreeze them again into sleet. That’s how. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

How does it work that the column did not have enough warm air for there to be sleet, so that's why Ryan thought it was actually small hail from convection?  Not saying it isn't so, but I don't understand how that would work.

Not exactly sure either, but the hail just illustrates the tremendous lift in that band. Perhaps @CT Rain can elaborate?

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I remember when he did that hit.  My girlfriend was yelling at me to come in,(cuz I was outside in it, and just amazed at the intensity) cuz he was saying 6”/hr rates.  What a storm. Ended up with 33+.  
 

Boxing Day sucked for the most part..sh*tty snow growth with that pos. Iowa is all mixed up..poor sob. 

Boxing Day had great wind. The snow was awful.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Because the column was cold all the way up.  No warm layer to melt the snowflakes and then refreeze them again into sleet. That’s how. 

So where is the warm air for there to be liquid raindrops that freeze, fall, coat in more liquid, etc?

 

BTW, I could stand another of those too.  Almost 30" here.  30+ nearby.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We had 2 inches here and so did Staffordville.  It snowed 4 days in a row like a half inch each day the 19th to the 23rd according to Coop records.  I imagine Coventry had the same. Anyways snows coming. Let's do this 

Ya it was pretty bare here.
 

 Yes sir it’s coming…I’m in. 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

You mean for the Boxing Day blizzard?

I attached an interpolation that I created using GHCND/PNS observations. I created 200 other interpolations/images. I'm sure I'm not the only one who did this... Right? Anywho, I created the plots to determine the most significant snowfall event since 1900 on a grid.

If you're looking for snowfall maps since 2008, I'd recommend checking out the NSA product: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall/

They create their plots using in-situ observations, SLR climatology, Stage IV precipitation analysis (from Radar), and other gridded analysis products: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/tins/tin15-05bigrsc_snowfall_aaa.pdf

Cool map. Too bad Westerly RI only report 20 inches in 78. I lived there 36 plus. Observer at the Airport went home and couldn't get back for 2 days and measured 20 in a wind blown area. 78 beat any storm

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

So where is the warm air for there to be liquid raindrops that freeze, fall, coat in more liquid, etc?

Supercooled(water that’s below freezing but not frozen) water droplets.  

[eduggs]

Kind of immature and late developing mid-levels on the RGEM. Even on the much sharper NAM, the mid-levels haven't taken off by the end of the run. They look like they would really get going thereafter, but mostly for the benefit of eastern NE. The quick forward motion also limits the potential somewhat. Plowable would be more than acceptable.

[MegaMike]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Not exactly sure either, but the hail just illustrates the tremendous lift in that band. Perhaps @CT Rain can elaborate?

I don't remember exactly the process, but several researches wrote a paper about the thermodynamic/microphysical evolution of that mega band: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/143/10/mwr-d-14-00407.1.xml?rskey=cIrzIt&result=2

[Ginx snewx]

Sicko me staying up for the GFS CMC  Kevin will laugh. I have to get up at 415 for work... Oh well storms are rare and the season is short.  Let's do this

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

I don't remember exactly the process, but several researches wrote a paper about the thermodynamic/microphysical evolution of that mega band: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/143/10/mwr-d-14-00407.1.xml?rskey=cIrzIt&result=2

Thank you!

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sicko me staying up for the GFS CMC  Kevin will laugh. I have to get up at 415 for work... Oh well storms are rare and the season is short.  Let's do this

Came out of retirement?

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sicko me staying up for the GFS CMC  Kevin will laugh. I have to get up at 415 for work... Oh well storms are rare and the season is short.  Let's do this

Thought you were retired pal? 

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

He had an 80% chance of no pants on below that NBCCT graphic.

We were texting back and forth. I had that band  first and told him 6 per hour he laughed and said no way..   He who laughs first... Epicosity defined

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, MegaMike said:

I don't remember exactly the process, but several researches wrote a paper about the thermodynamic/microphysical evolution of that mega band: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/143/10/mwr-d-14-00407.1.xml?rskey=cIrzIt&result=2

Yeah - I think the biggest factor is that there was a tremendous amount of convection in that band so you had a lot of latent heat release doing some funky things to the thermal profile. When we had 1/4 mile +SN in Groton and reports of rain and hail on the east side of the mega band we knew something pretty wild was happening.

The "asteroid ice" that fell was more like hail than sleet - plenty of riming and also some legit hail characteristics around the updrafts. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Came out of retirement?

Thought you knew.  Working with Traumatic Brain injury clients 3 days a week 12 hrs a day.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thought you knew.  Working with Traumatic Brain injury clients 3 days a week 12 hrs a day.

 No, Good for you though.

[MJO812]

Gfs looking more amped through 60

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah - I think the biggest factor is that there was a tremendous amount of convection in that band so you had a lot of latent heat release doing some funky things to the thermal profile. When we had 1/4 mile +SN in Groton and reports of rain and hail on the east side of the mega band we knew something pretty wild was happening.

The "asteroid ice" that fell was more like hail than sleet - plenty of riming and also some legit hail characteristics around the updrafts. 

Not especially hard to rime snowflakes enough to produce a graupel-like hydrometeor, but there was just so much supercooled water thanks to the convection that more true ice than "Styrofoam" started falling. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs looking more amped through 60

yup looks that way

[dryslot]

Not going to whiff.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No, Good for you though.

Love it. Wanted to do something to give back and help people rather than for a corporation . Only 17 bucks an hour but that's plenty.  I turned down a job as a Safety Director at a  Bio Chem Plant for 75 K plus. No more stress jobs for me. My employer and bosses are the coolest people ever. Just love it.

 

Hope this the start of an epic run of winter.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Not especially hard to rime snowflakes enough to produce a graupel-like hydrometeor, but there was just so much supercooled water thanks to the convection that more true ice than "Styrofoam" started falling. 

Yeah a friend from high school in Essex texted me that they had hail bigger than pea size and it was really loud. I didn't believe him and made him take pictures.

Then 15 minutes later he texted again to say it was pouring rain. Meanwhile... it was still snow in Montauk lol

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Not especially hard to rime snowflakes enough to produce a graupel-like hydrometeor, but there was just so much supercooled water thanks to the convection that more true ice than "Styrofoam" started falling. 

 

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Supercooled(water that’s below freezing but not frozen) water droplets.  

 

[TalcottWx]

Just fook nyquil fighting the good fight