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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Wait, I'm confused.... Its either to far East for you, or it will be to warm and west? Am I reading that right? 

Too Far East for those near NY border if we keep trending East. Overall it’s fine verbatim just pointing out some possible trends. 18z is known to be an off Euro run so let’s see. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well you know where I stand. If I’m wrong so be it. But OTS with flurries is the least of my worry.

Everyone has a least likely scenario and everyone has a scenario where some other part of the forum gets raked.  That's the real fear, lets be honest.  Like you raining while interior gets smoked, NNE is always more worried with smoking cirrus while SE gets smoked.  It's a funny dynamic but regardless of the set-up, there are some default "least of my worries" for every poster depending on location :lol:.  They are opposites too, like the least of worries up here is raining while the least of worries down there is flurries.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, powderfreak said:

Everyone has a least likely scenario and everyone has a scenario where some other part of the forum gets raked.  That's the real fear, lets be honest.  Like you raining while interior gets smoked, NNE is always more worried with smoking cirrus while SE gets smoked.  It's a funny dynamic but regardless of the set-up, there are some default "least of my worries" for every poster depending on location :lol:.  They are opposites too, like the least of worries up here is raining while the least of worries down there is flurries.

My opinion is routed on meteorological features though. I’m not trying to set up some preemptive stance to psyche me out on a fear or something like that. Dryslot mentioned those features. I don’t see an OTS solution at the moment. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Fast, ejecting s/w is fighting it which might be a good thing otherwise it’s up the Hudson. 

And that's where a whole bunch of these have already gone unless they were sheared out, But i don't see anything to cause that right now, This one is a strong s/w dropping down the backside before it rounds the base of the trough and heads NNE.

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My opinion is routed on meteorological features though. I’m not trying to set up some preemptive stance to psyche me out on a fear or something like that. Dryslot mentioned those features. I don’t see an OTS solution at the moment. 

Gives me hope, thanks. Glad I am in NH instead of far NW VT right now though. I stand a better chance of getting some bands thrown back this way on an east wind even if it does head more OTS.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My opinion is routed on meteorological features though. I’m not trying to set up some preemptive stance to psyche me out on a fear or something like that. Dryslot mentioned those features. I don’t see an OTS solution at the moment. 

Oh for sure.  Based on guidance it's hard to see a complete whiff or an inland cutter either.  This one definitely lines up so far with enough model spread that there are the usual classic worries between geographic regions.

My gut says fast flow wherever it goes, could be a very solid hit somewhere but residence time seems to be quick.  Fast always makes me think east though.  Models have over-amped storms in the mid-range for years now it seems.

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tavwtby

tavwtby

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh ... I see.  yeah - good questions.

The operational version is a "souped up" ensemble member ...It has incorporated the best theoretical application of Meteorological physical equations -it's called the 'operational version'.   Most reliance is there.

The ensemble means have less integrated total tech manifolds, and/or employ more 'experimental' physical equations.  They are thus considered, 'perturbed' version members.  Individually, they are less likely to best the operational model ...particularly in shorter duration lead ( < 72 hours)... where as, the extended complete mean ( all members/ n-terms), offers stability - a kind of normalization that the operational falls victim due to chaos feed-backs cumulatively effecting accuracy way out in time. 

That's sometimes why you might hear[ responsible minded ] contributors ( lol ) refer to relying upon the ensemble mean in the extended, which by convention is anything out side of 5 days ...Relative to the pattern at hand, sometimes that is shorter or longer by a day in either direction.  I've seen patterns where operational versions nail things down pretty tight on D6 .. but I've also seen operational version have trouble as close as D3. The respective ensemble means tend to perform better in lesser confidence circumstances.

The last 5 years -worth of winters (imho ...) have not been particularly good operational version years ... probably owing to the compressed, fast flows.  Models don't tend to do as well in long X-coordinate, short Y coordinate flow types, which seems to be dominating the winter hemispheres as of late. 

thanks, as always very well articulated post and explanation, appreciate it.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My opinion is routed on meteorological features though. I’m not trying to set up some preemptive stance to psyche me out on a fear or something like that. Dryslot mentioned those features. I don’t see an OTS solution at the moment. 

QG Omeguiera not leaning back .. not doing the Rockaway . He’s leaning forward.. lean fore

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