Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[George001]

I don’t know if this means anything but I noticed on some of the models even the more inland ones, that the rain snow line only got like a few miles NW of the low. In some storms the rain snow line is well NW of the low, why is that? 

[TalcottWx]

Guys.... I am about to start reading page one... If I don't reasonably expect plow able after reading these 28 pages were gonna have a problem 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

I don’t know if this means anything but I noticed on some of the models even the more inland ones, that the rain snow line only got like a few miles NW of the low. In some storms the rain snow line is well NW of the low, why is that? 

This storm gets tightly wrapped on the stronger solutions so it would collapse the R/S line pretty close to the ML center. This happened in storms like 1/12/11 where the low tracked over the Cape but the R/S line wasn’t that far NW of the canal. I think the south shore had a monster paste job in that one. 

[IowaStorm05]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t know if this means anything but I noticed on some of the models even the more inland ones, that the rain snow line only got like a few miles NW of the low. In some storms the rain snow line is well NW of the low, why is that? 

It might just be the orientation of the flow, the wind… but why THAT happens well it’s just physics

And lots of luck predicting that 3-4 days out.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This storm gets tightly wrapped on the stronger solutions so it would collapse the R/S line pretty close to the ML center. This happened in storms like 1/12/11 where the low tracked over the Cape but the R/S line wasn’t that far NW of the canal. I think the south shore had a monster paste job in that one. 

Thanks for the explanation, that makes sense. I hope that happens with this storm, a track over the cape which would still keep my area NW of the rain snow line, but the low would strengthen enough that we can get those higher end totals.

[TalcottWx]

9 hours ago, ursa99 said:

Lets hope this happens,...

I would ride the red line nude from Ashmont to alewife. 

[78Blizzard]

Not that it matters or that anyone cares, but the JMA and NAVGEM are both big whiffs, too.  But the ARPEGE looks nice.   

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s hard to completely dismiss an east solution after what we’ve seen today.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s hard to completely dismiss an east solution after what we’ve seen today.

Like OTS? I am. Dismissed. 

[IowaStorm05]

Humans always like to talk about “averages” and normal and what, and this is true dealing with snowfall and winters. But seriously in most locations, at least now days, averages seem to mean nothing. And in some years, like 2004-2005 you’re getting plastered storm after storm after storm almost the entire winter. Some of them massive blizzards.

or you might have a 2019-2020 situation where you get almost nothing at all the entire season.

My curiosity for this event we are tracking is the idea of the pattern of a winter flipping from really mild for weeks, to a seriously snowy and brutal winter pattern. Because I don’t know many winters in my memory that do that. Which is why I feel like we are maybe being duped by the models. This has been a “miss” winter for us so far. 
 

is it just a matter of patterns tending to stick for more amounts of months than are contained within a season before they have a chance to change?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Like OTS? I am. Dismissed. 

Noted… we’ll see. Getting closer to go time and several models are whiffing and not close 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s hard to completely dismiss an east solution after what we’ve seen today.

 

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mitch with many bodies showing .. needs this one 

 

I wonder how many went on his property and were never seen again. You just have to wonder. 

[78Blizzard]

I'm not asking for much, but the 0z suite would be a good place to start a definite NW trend for the OTS models.  And a good place to stop the SE trend for the model hits.

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

yeah, i would love a thread where mets just discuss

Idk. Would it ruin the community? It might. It would alter things. 

[George001]

11 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Humans always like to talk about “averages” and normal and what, and this is true dealing with snowfall and winters. But seriously in most locations, at least now days, averages seem to mean nothing. And in some years, like 2004-2005 you’re getting plastered storm after storm after storm almost the entire winter. Some of them massive blizzards.

or you might have a 2019-2020 situation where you get almost nothing at all the entire season.

My curiosity for this event we are tracking is the idea of the pattern of a winter flipping from really mild for weeks, to a seriously snowy and brutal winter pattern. Because I don’t know many winters in my memory that do that. Which is why I feel like we are maybe being duped by the models. This has been a “miss” winter for us so far. 
 

is it just a matter of patterns tending to stick for more amounts of months than are contained within a season before they have a chance to change?

2014-2015 and 2012-2013 were 2 really good winters that started slow. In 2014-2015, we didn’t have anything big until the Miller B blizzard late January that gave eastern mass 2 feet of snow. Then we got a few more severe blizzards in Feb.

[TalcottWx]

30 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Guys.... I am about to start reading page one... If I don't reasonably expect plow able after reading these 28 pages were gonna have a problem 

OK.... I think 2-4" or 3-6" at BOS is more than a fair first call guesstimate. Gotta look at a few different things myself but that's what I get out of reading my favorite red taggers here. 

Big question mark on NW but will probably do fine as always. Would be more concerned mixing SE cape and islands. 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Noted… we’ll see. Getting closer to go time and several models are whiffing and not close 

It won’t whiff. Bigger issue is Ptype. 

[8611Blizz]

23 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I would ride the red line nude from Ashmont to alewife. 

I'll take a photo at Davis

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro wont look like the GFS

[CoastalWx]

Two competing things I see. Low pressure feeling tugged by the strong S/W and the baroclinic zone off of Hatteras. It’s a matter of which is dominant. 

[ariof]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This storm gets tightly wrapped on the stronger solutions so it would collapse the R/S line pretty close to the ML center. This happened in storms like 1/12/11 where the low tracked over the Cape but the R/S line wasn’t that far NW of the canal. I think the south shore had a monster paste job in that one. 

IIRC from skiing the streets downtown there was a nice coastal front and it was something like 32˚ in the Seaport and 27˚ in the Fens. MIT Green Building supports this. Not one of those 15˚ coastal fronts, but enough to change the consistency of the SN.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Two competing things I see. Low pressure feeling tugged by the strong S/W and the baroclinic zone off of Hatteras. It’s a matter of which is dominant. 

Like some body part pulling in a weenie maybe? 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not worried...feel like it goes over the cape or near PYM. First Call tomorrow.

As @OceanStWx alluded to earlier, seems like all the sensitivity is due to the western ridge.  Confindence of storm is 100%.  Where and details to be ironed out.

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro has mixing issues on the cape and I95 area

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

18z Euro has mixing issues on the cape and I95 area

Maybe cape but not 95. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Maybe cape but not 95. 

maybe right on the shore but ya most are snow

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

maybe right on the shore but ya most are snow

Your working or beering at work ?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z Euro has mixing issues on the cape and I95 area

Maybe I’m a weenie but that looks like snow here 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your working or beering at work ?

lol no work until Thursday night    been up since 10 last night though