Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[dryslot]

BM to Shelburne NS track is no bueno.

[CoastalWx]

Ukie out to sea lol.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Ukie out to sea lol.

GFS for the win again?

[PhineasC]

I figured this would happen. Hopefully Euro holds, but that model can't be trusted.

[RDRY]

This seems like the typical lead-time for the models to lose a coastal.

[MJO812]

Everything is trending worse

[ineedsnow]

you know its a bad year when its January and DT gets more snow then me

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, RDRY said:

This seems like the typical lead-time for the models to lose a coastal.

no that was this weekend when we lost it for a bit.. this is the time when we start to bring it back and come to a general consensus within 48-72 hours.. we are only 84 hours from go time at 18z today.. 

[apm]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Everything is trending worse

The silver lining is that it's nice to see the GFS doing better!

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

CMC slipping SE towards the GFS... as expected.

Ukie also

I don't trust the euro at all anymore

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’d sign for the cmc right now

[JC-CT]

NAM looks fine to me! 

[dryslot]

Some are starting to hover.

 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some are starting to hover.

 

What's happening fits the pattern for NNE, IMO. Shredded and SE.

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

What's happening fits the pattern for NNE, IMO. Shredded and SE.

Until we see otherwise, I would agree, But i'm not ready to buy any solution yet.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Until we see otherwise, I would agree, But i'm not ready to buy any solution yet.

Yeah, my expectation is that it will keep slipping SE and then jog NW last 36-48 hours to be a moderate event here. Wound up low tucked into the GOM isn't happening, IMO. Another progressive strung out POS.

[greenmtnwx]

This could be the one that really tips the board. I think most were fine with the MidAtlantic having a sirloin when they thought this weekend was NE filet. If this one falls apart and the longer range looking meh, it could get ugly. And even though the GFS precip output and some parameters may be struggling, it’s done a pretty good job with overall development in this flow. 

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie out to sea lol.

2nd best model!!!

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some are starting to hover.

 

[ineedsnow]

could be worse Nantucket is under a winter storm warning and supposed to be all snow... obs showing light rain

[SouthCoastMA]

That GFS, so hot right now

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, my expectation is that it will keep slipping SE and then jog NW last 36-48 hours to be a moderate event here. Wound up low tucked into the GOM isn't happening, IMO. Another progressive strung out POS.

When you see models shifting 2-300 miles in 6 hrs that has happened several times this season i mean how can you consider anything right now.

[ORH_wxman]

The ensemble guidance being pretty far west still is a solid red flag for assuming a whiff SE.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

This could be the one that really tips the board. I think most were fine with the MidAtlantic having a sirloin when they thought this weekend was NE filet. If this one falls apart and the longer range looking meh, it could get ugly. And even though the GFS precip output and some parameters may be struggling, it’s done a pretty good job with overall development in this flow. 

.....the melts are going to be Hall of Fame worthy....

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The ensemble guidance being pretty far west still is a solid red flag for assuming a whiff SE.

In both camps, There are still plenty of amped members so i agree.

[dryslot]

Eric may have to add some new faces for the ones that are dropping into the abyss meme.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

.....the melts are going to be Hall of Fame worthy....

Winter is long and grueling. I sincerely hope no one in SNE cancels winter in the 1st week of January no matter how lousy it has been.

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

could be worse Nantucket is under a winter storm warning and supposed to be all snow... obs showing light rain

nah, that's as expected. it will change over with heavier returns

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Winter is long and grueling. I sincerely hope no one in SNE cancels winter in the 1st week of January no matter how lousy it has been.

Yeah, At least wait until the 15th.............

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Winter is long and grueling. I sincerely hope no one in SNE cancels winter in the 1st week of January no matter how lousy it has been.

it would certainly be a first

/s