Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Actually a fuzzy signal mid month, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Head fake at 12z, Back on on the 18z on the goofus for now, Looks like it was hitting the sauce earlier, 12z GEFS agreed it was too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 GEFs are interesting. At least it’s not clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah ... again, I wanna stress for those that really kinda sorta 'need to see these model runs deliver' ... best not to focus or 'look' rather for details at this range. I mean, 7 days - this is a favorable synoptic super structure evolving, that has the benefit of an Archembaultian system embedded - it's true that a storm is higher confidence. I would say 'favors' cold p-types, but that is by no means a declarative. I guess my point is, your going to get ticked off waiting run to run for ticks. LOL Isn't that what we do here for fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 GEFS looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 57 minutes ago, dryslot said: Head fake at 12z, Back on on the 18z on the goofus for now, Looks like it was hitting the sauce earlier, 12z GEFS agreed it was too. The GFS just wants us to be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Only 7 days for this one to vanish before our eyes This storm isn't going to vanish...it doesn't HAVE TO be a snower for us, but the storm is real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Storm will be there, what’s up in the air is whether or not it will be wet or white. Tip makes no reference to precip type in his heading. “Cold p-type”. what do you think he is implying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 9 hours ago, SJonesWX said: “Cold p-type”. what do you think he is implying? 33F rain 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, wdrag said: Happy New Year to every member that posts here! Am not threading anything yet for Jan 2-3, Jan 6-7 The reasons are in the graphics below. The uncertainties are largest in the gradients. If interested, click each for greater clarity. The 06z/1 raw 10 to 1 snow ratio'd operational EC and GDPS (Canadian). Both are nada and as is the NAM (not attached). My guess is a few ensemble members of the EPS/GEFS have a touch of snow in our forum but overwhelmingly it's unlikely. Saw the 06z GFS northern fringe but my guess on that is that not enough dry air is infused to dry out the northern fringe to virga. So, until the Canadian and NAM move north, I just cant get excited. Jan 6-7 is of more interest to me, at least I95 itself northwestward. Anything can happen at this point but it does look like a sizable wintery qpf event is coming to the northeast. How close it gets to NYC... unknown but I've alerted my I84 friends to monitor future forecasts for travel Friday morning. Click the graphics if interested for greater clarity. 06z/1 EC OP, 06z /1 GGEM=GDPS OP, NWS 09z/1 Ensemble prob of 1"---all these focused on Sunday night-Monday morning, and then the late Thu-Fri ensemble chance of 3" of snow. We alert 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Why would Scooter be confused by that ? Things look good finally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why would Scooter be confused by that ? Things look good finally Could go either way on the 7th. I'm looking like 10th and beyond where it finally looks to turn a corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Could go either way on the 7th. I'm looking like 10th and beyond where it finally looks to turn a corner. Well if your confused and don’t understand something, please just ask Walt. I’m sure he’d be happy to walk you thru things 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I think the 7th is borderline even for here. If that low develops SW won't it flood the mid levels with warm air given a lack of a high to hold in cold air? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I think the 7th is borderline even for here. If that low develops SW won't it flood the mid levels with warm air given a lack of a high to hold in cold air? It’ll probably look quite a bit different come go-time. Euro last night was good for us…but it really doesn’t matter. Moral of the story is there’s a storm threat in that time frame. Deets TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 6Z GFS is acceptable. Well for me at least. Where do I send the request to have this locked in? Does it go to Coastal or do I have to send it to PF as I am in the NNE posting section? Clown: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 6z gfs buries the interior of CNE and NNE, and knocks out the grid elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 06z eps has a pretty big spread…not a tight cluster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, klw said: 6Z GFS is acceptable. Well for me at least. Where do I send the request to have this locked in? Does it go to Coastal or do I have to send it to PF as I am in the NNE posting section? Clown: I’ll co-sponsor the bill if you write it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, mreaves said: I’ll co-sponsor the bill if you write it. If you are making me do the leg work, it probably won't happen as the coffee has yet to kick in and the TV is calling me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 46 minutes ago, klw said: If you are making me do the leg work, it probably won't happen as the coffee has yet to kick in and the TV is calling me. Maybe PF of JSpin will do the legwork. They seem more detail oriented than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 6z gfs clown bullseyes my camp in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 12z GFS takes it offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 12z has more of a coastal scraper, mostly due to northern stream energy moving though the st lawrence valley sooner, sharpening up the trough. Decent look coastal plain, not as good interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: 12z GFS takes it offshore. Virginia, GFS is such a trash model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Virginia, GFS is such a trash model Alot of that is from Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The only thing i'm taking from this time frame is there will be a storm, Don't care where it is tracking right now, By weds, Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 hours ago, klw said: 6Z GFS is acceptable. Well for me at least. Where do I send the request to have this locked in? Does it go to Coastal or do I have to send it to PF as I am in the NNE posting section? Clown: That looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 CMC is a weak miss to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 GEFS look close to the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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