TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Icon and gfs at 12z want absolutely nothing to do with this. I’ll take that over amped here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs says enjoy the day… partly cloudy 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not sure why the ICON even gets mentioned, Its not like anyone has checked its verification scores on any of these events. GFS agrees, given GFS just destroyed EURO on the MECS down south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don't mind that solution. Yeah it's prob good right now...lol....considering where other guidance is. I don't see this whiffing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don't mind that solution. Same… just posted that: not a bad spot for us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs says enjoy the day… partly cloudy It manages to give a refresher to areas getting snow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs says enjoy the day… partly cloudy Trade the shovel for driver? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Even aloft on GFS this doesn't really scream wide right to me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Hoth said: Trade the shovel for driver? Or tee the ball up with the shovel in hand? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Looks good at H5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Short summary on everything I've written ... ... this is a real candidate for short lead time correction. ...Get this to 72 hours lead and it may rather abruptly wait to coalesce in guidance then. Again... after 30 hours from now, the post SPV split will be sampling in real-time. Said split as of 12z initialization has not even begun. We really need to get on the other side of this: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Cmc bit more progressive vs 00z. Sorry for the old school graphics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Looks like it was a nice hit in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Icon and gfs at 12z want absolutely nothing to do with this. I’ll take that over amped here. Hang in there…your cmc will be out shortly to save the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Where do I sign for the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 GEFS out to hr90 going to be some good members in there I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 qq mentioned gfs destroyed euro on current system. Is that true? Both had big hits down there I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: qq mentioned gfs destroyed euro on current system. Is that true? Both had big hits down there I thought. i don't see any macro evidence of that, seems like they both corrected similarly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: qq mentioned gfs destroyed euro on current system. Is that true? Both had big hits down there I thought. GFS had the right idea sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: qq mentioned gfs destroyed euro on current system. Is that true? Both had big hits down there I thought. Euro was extremely late to the party.. GFS was the only model showing a significant storm for many days.. and was the first to catch on the the delmarva snowstorm at about 84 hours out.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 GEFS are a reasonably nice hit. Toss op. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Wicked curve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: GEFS are a reasonably nice hit. Toss op. 2/3rds of members are west of mean.. good to see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Euro was extremely late to the party.. GFS was the only model showing a significant storm for many days.. and was the first to catch on the the delmarva snowstorm at about 84 hours out.. I remember euro was late but arguably (compared to 1/7) both were? I think it’s a win for gfs but not a destroyer. Gfs had it in the middle range and it took euro longer but still in middle range I think but I wasn’t keeping score.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: GEFS are a reasonably nice hit. Toss op. about half still OTS though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Cmc is perfect for mby but even though the euro is fraught I prefer it personally. A good old fashioned whacked with taint always nearby or overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 congrats eastern areas on the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 This is in many ways a thread the needle system. Although despite the 12z trend so far I suspect tucked is the better bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 CMC slipping SE towards the GFS... as expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 It really could not be more definitive and glaring as a mid range test. Euro vs GFS .... the old nemesis. It's funny how seldom these models just like ever agree. I mean, they use the same physics, right ? Doesn't the force of gravity still point down in both AI engines?? Again, I think this is a unique situation... ( I don't think this is registering as I'm not getting any replies? ) It's okay...I'll let it lie at this this point. But even in the over amped versions, I'd be cautious until we get on the other side of that vortex split. This entire increased threat assessment as a thread, began as a very coherent mode change in the total hemispheric circulation footprint. The numerical version is remarkably concertedly in agreement, and both the graphic version of that in the EPS/GEFs/GEPs ... indicate losing negatie anomalies in the S/W ...replacing with positive by weeks end. These are not trivial alterations to the larger circulation manifold, and this is typically when system tend to occur. At a more specific scope. The change from negative to positive PNA, lends to more amplitude and increasing curve flow surfaces. Thus, the emergence of this systems becomes interesting... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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