Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Icon and gfs at 12z want absolutely nothing to do with this. I’ll take that over amped here.

[qg_omega]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs says enjoy the day… partly cloudy 

 

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not sure why the ICON even gets mentioned, Its not like anyone has checked its verification scores on any of these events.

GFS agrees, given GFS just destroyed EURO on the MECS down south....

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don't mind that solution.

Yeah it's prob good right now...lol....considering where other guidance is. I don't see this whiffing.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don't mind that solution.

Same… just posted that: not a bad spot for us right now.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs says enjoy the day… partly cloudy 

It manages to give a refresher to areas getting snow today.

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs says enjoy the day… partly cloudy 

Trade the shovel for driver?

[ORH_wxman]

Even aloft on GFS this doesn't really scream wide right to me

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Hoth said:

Trade the shovel for driver?

Or tee the ball up with the shovel in hand?

[NorEastermass128]

Looks good at H5. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Short summary on everything I've written ...

... this is a real candidate for short lead time correction. ...Get this to 72 hours lead and it may rather abruptly wait to coalesce in guidance then.

Again... after 30 hours from now, the post SPV split will be sampling in real-time. Said split as of 12z initialization has not even begun.  We really need to get on the other side of this:

[Heisy]

Cmc bit more progressive vs 00z.

Sorry for the old school graphics 

[Heisy]

Looks like it was a nice hit in SNE 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Icon and gfs at 12z want absolutely nothing to do with this. I’ll take that over amped here.

Hang in there…your cmc will be out shortly to save the day. 

[Hoth]

Where do I sign for the CMC?

[ineedsnow]

GEFS out to hr90  going to be some good members in there I think

[weathafella]

qq mentioned gfs destroyed euro on current system.  Is that true?   Both had big hits down there I thought.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

qq mentioned gfs destroyed euro on current system.  Is that true?   Both had big hits down there I thought.

i don't see any macro evidence of that, seems like they both corrected similarly

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

qq mentioned gfs destroyed euro on current system.  Is that true?   Both had big hits down there I thought.

GFS had the right idea sooner. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

qq mentioned gfs destroyed euro on current system.  Is that true?   Both had big hits down there I thought.

Euro was extremely late to the party.. GFS was the only model showing a significant storm for many days.. and was the first to catch on the the delmarva snowstorm at about 84 hours out.. 

[weathafella]

GEFS are a reasonably nice hit.  Toss op.

[Heisy]

Wicked curve 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

GEFS are a reasonably nice hit.  Toss op.

2/3rds of members are west of mean.. good to see

[weathafella]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro was extremely late to the party.. GFS was the only model showing a significant storm for many days.. and was the first to catch on the the delmarva snowstorm at about 84 hours out.. 

I remember euro was late but arguably (compared to 1/7) both were?   I think it’s a win for gfs but not a destroyer.   Gfs had it in the middle range and it took euro longer but still in middle range I think but I wasn’t keeping score....

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

GEFS are a reasonably nice hit.  Toss op.

about half still OTS though 

[MJO812]

Cmc

[weathafella]

Cmc is perfect for mby but even though the euro is fraught I prefer it personally.   A good old fashioned whacked with taint always nearby or overhead.

[ineedsnow]

congrats eastern areas on the CMC

[weathafella]

This is in many ways a thread the needle system.   Although despite the 12z trend so far I suspect tucked is the better bet.

[PhineasC]

CMC slipping SE towards the GFS... as expected.

[Typhoon Tip]

It really could not be more definitive and glaring as a mid range test.

Euro   vs   GFS     ....  the old nemesis.  

It's funny how seldom these models just like ever agree.   I mean, they use the same physics, right ?   Doesn't the force of gravity still point down in both AI engines?? 

Again, I think this is a unique situation... ( I don't think this is registering as I'm not getting any replies? )   It's okay...I'll let it lie at this this point. But even in the over amped versions, I'd be cautious until we get on the other side of that vortex split. 

This entire increased threat assessment as a thread, began as a very coherent mode change in the total hemispheric circulation footprint.  The numerical version is remarkably concertedly in agreement, and both the graphic version of that in the EPS/GEFs/GEPs ... indicate losing negatie anomalies in the S/W ...replacing with positive by weeks end.  These are not trivial alterations to the larger circulation manifold, and this is typically when system tend to occur. 

At a more specific scope.  The change from negative to positive PNA, lends to more amplitude and increasing curve flow surfaces.  Thus, the emergence of this systems becomes interesting...