Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lots of spread with 5 days to go… gfs is basically a whiff. It may end up like crap, but it’s early.

Op GFS is not be be trusted right now.  Way too wild in solutions.  The Euro and Ukie have been pretty stable and consistent in their solutions.  My gut is saying the Euro is a bit over-amplified with the primary.  That's one thing we don't want to see if you're looking for a solid snowfall around here.  I'd like to see a quicker transfer to 2nd-ary before the primary is over Pittsburgh.  Keep using the Ensm for now.

[Lava Rock]

with how bad the models are, you guys should get a partial refund on your subscriptions

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Why all of the delays though?

We had black ice here after last nights 0.3".

[MarkO]

I assumed it had to do with more of weather seeing most towns are south and east of Boston. I guess it could be influenced by Covid teting, but shouldn't we be seeing it nationwide?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Thanks. That’s the answer I was looking for. It was probably obvious, but I’m dealing with a low grade migraine so I’m a little foggy. 

A lot of schools were also having problems lining up their pool testing for the kids because the labs were overwhelmed the last week.  At least that was the case around here.

[ORH_wxman]

06z EPS:

 

[dryslot]

Tucky

[PhineasC]

Tuck it. 

[mreaves]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

May be Dryslot issues if it takes the BM to ACK to outer Cape track 

Dryslot would have no issue with that track. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

27 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Not sure if this has been brought up, but can't believe the number of schools closed or on delay this AM. I think it's more of "we need one more vacation day".

A lot of it is Covid related stuff.  We had a delayed opening to test all of our staff.    A number in my building tested positive this morning and were sent home.  

The state botched this one in Mass.    We were supposed to get kits over the weekend but they were late.       

Some on the Cape prob due to the 1" blizzard

[HoarfrostHubb]

Still some decent spread.  SE SNE I'd lean towards rain

[Baroclinic Zone]

Cluster right over the BM.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Barnstable, MA

[ORH_wxman]

The mean looks pretty close to ACK. But still pretty good spread at this point.

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Tucky

 

13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Tuck it. 

[ursa99]

Lets hope this happens,...

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Dryslot would have no issue with that track. 

I love ack track or inside the BM ones that finish in the GOM, I'll start to place more focus on Weds, And possibly tomorrow night.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

 

That's good for a mean, But still meaningless.........lol

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's good for a mean, But still meaningless.........lol

Completely meaningless.  But gotta talk about something haha.  Wednesday is a long way away.  That mean includes Saint Lawrence Valley jacks and whiffs.

[MJO812]

Euro has been way too amped many times in the mid range. A compromise of the Euro and GFS would be nice for many people.

[PhineasC]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Completely meaningless.  But gotta talk about something haha.  Wednesday is a long way away.  That mean includes Saint Lawrence Valley jacks and whiffs.

Best potential for us this season so far.

I am most worried about a whiff OTS. GFS has been persistent on that and so many of these big storms have been shredded into oblivion over the past two years it seems impossible to believe one can make it into the GOM near the coast.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Completely meaningless.  But gotta talk about something haha.  Wednesday is a long way away.  That mean includes Saint Lawrence Valley jacks and whiffs.

Like 11 cycles...........

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Best potential for us this season so far.

I am most worried about a whiff OTS. GFS has been persistent on that and so many of these big storms have been shredded into oblivion over the past two years it seems impossible to believe one can make it into the GOM near the coast.

Yeah that would be the obvious concern because it’s certainly not going to rain up here.  It’s either going to snow or whiff.

[FXWX]

23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A lot of it is Covid related stuff.  We had a delayed opening to test all of our staff.    A number in my building tested positive this morning and were sent home.  

The state botched this one in Mass.    We were supposed to get kits over the weekend but they were late.       

Some on the Cape prob due to the 1" blizzard

In CT, Mass, including Cape it is all Covid related... None due to weather issues...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro would be okay here 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro would be okay here 

00z op? 6z EPS? Not sure which run you're referring to.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

00z op? 6z EPS? Not sure which run you're referring to.

Op would be awful for him.

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Op would be awful for him.

brutal cutoff

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh you’ll be fine. Dobut  it goes to MHT.

Fine at hr 96?

I mix often here. Very often. Local climate is 75/25 PSM/DAW

 

She's coming west. Check out the H5 trend in Quebec.

 

[dendrite]

SFC low over MHT is not often a preferred track. But yeah...you could mix there regardless.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

brutal cutoff

Oh I meant for Friday.