Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:47 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs is easily 8+ here 

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Nope! You’re going down with the HRRR and the NAM. 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:58 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Haha, the best reaction to a post yet. 

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Best and most accurate  

[NotSureWeather]

Any reason why it’s almost a perfect square of no snow just around DC on radar?

[PhineasC]

  On 1/7/2022 at 3:57 AM, NotSureWeather said:

This is my first time doing this so Im not sure this is correct but…

 

beer?

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Good try, but I am thinking something stronger at work here.

[The Graupler]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:00 AM, George001 said:

He’s right, it’s a nowcast. Models have the right idea but even small initialization errors would lead to major changes. Miller Bs are notoriously difficult to forecast. 

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I’m not to sure you’ve figured this storm out as well as you’re leading on 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:01 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Best and most accurate  

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Yup. Clutch performance by Jeff. Part of it could be though because I look and feel like the gif myself.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:04 AM, NotSureWeather said:

Any reason why it’s almost a perfect square of no snow just around DC on radar?

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UFO or dry air. 

[Greg]

Low level dry air.

[Sn0waddict]

[STILL N OF PIKE]

And In this corner ..from “parts unknown” 

[tiger_deF]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:10 AM, Sn0waddict said:

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What the heck is going on here?

[George001]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:05 AM, The Graupler said:

I’m not to sure you’ve figured this storm out as well as you’re leading on 

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Maybe not, we will find out tomorrow. I feel like this one is going to be better than my other forecasts have been though.

[Cmass495]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:12 AM, tiger_deF said:

What the heck is going on here?

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A map of a 1006mb surface low and associated wind barbs, giving some indication where best forcing and lift is, I guess?

[Greg]

Actually, we'll find out in about 2 Hours from now.

[George001]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:12 AM, tiger_deF said:

What the heck is going on here?

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Good question I have absolutely no idea, it looks like there are 3 lows. I’ve never seen anything like it!

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:15 AM, Cmass495 said:

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At first glance this looks odd, but there is fresh convection that just spouted near HAT...not talking about the stuff 200 miles east

[George001]

Regardless of what happens that’s really damn cool, 3 lows! If even one low becomes dominant and absorbs the others this could get really interesting.

[dendrite]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:17 AM, Go Kart Mozart said:

At first glance this looks odd, but there is fresh convection that just spouted near HAT...not talking about the stuff 200 miles east

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That’s using sfc obs and there’s none out over the ocean so the isobars will look funky along the coast. 

[tiger_deF]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:15 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

A map of a 1006mb surface low and associated wind barbs, giving some indication where best forcing and lift is, I guess?

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Interesting seeing that middle area of low pressure closer to the coast. 

[The Graupler]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:12 AM, tiger_deF said:

What the heck is going on here?

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 Classic elongated snoopy facing leftward into the soupy primordial ooze setup typical this time of year 

[wxsniss]

Wave spacing... has this been an issue before this season?

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:18 AM, George001 said:

Regardless of what happens that’s really damn cool, 3 lows! If even one low becomes dominant and absorbs the others this could get really interesting.

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In meteorology, that's called a threesome. 

[78Blizzard]

Convection really blowing up now just E of ACY.

 

 

[Sn0waddict]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:12 AM, tiger_deF said:

What the heck is going on here?

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Convective confusion. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:22 AM, tiger_deF said:

Interesting seeing that middle area of low pressure closer to the coast. 

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Yeah, I was just looking verbatim.  Nowcast storm.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:26 AM, 78Blizzard said:

Convection really blowing up now just E of ACY.

 

 

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That's fine as long as it's not 100mi E of ACY.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:30 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

That's fine as long as it's not 100mi E of ACY.

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Just a few miles offshore.

[wxsniss]

This activity off NJ not depicted on NAM until 2-3 hours later. Let's see how this progresses.

[IowaStorm05]

  On 1/7/2022 at 4:32 AM, wxsniss said:

This activity off NJ not depicted on NAM until 2-3 hours later. Let's see how this progresses.

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I’m sorry for sounding ignorant but what are the implications of this to the storm we are expecting?. Explain like I’m 5 years old about this influence.