Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs is easily 8+ here 

Nope! You’re going down with the HRRR and the NAM. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Haha, the best reaction to a post yet. 

Best and most accurate  

[NotSureWeather]

Any reason why it’s almost a perfect square of no snow just around DC on radar?

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

This is my first time doing this so Im not sure this is correct but…

 

beer?

Good try, but I am thinking something stronger at work here.

[The Graupler]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

He’s right, it’s a nowcast. Models have the right idea but even small initialization errors would lead to major changes. Miller Bs are notoriously difficult to forecast. 

I’m not to sure you’ve figured this storm out as well as you’re leading on 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Best and most accurate  

Yup. Clutch performance by Jeff. Part of it could be though because I look and feel like the gif myself.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Any reason why it’s almost a perfect square of no snow just around DC on radar?

UFO or dry air. 

[Greg]

Low level dry air.

[Sn0waddict]

[STILL N OF PIKE]

And In this corner ..from “parts unknown” 

[tiger_deF]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

What the heck is going on here?

[George001]

8 minutes ago, The Graupler said:

I’m not to sure you’ve figured this storm out as well as you’re leading on 

Maybe not, we will find out tomorrow. I feel like this one is going to be better than my other forecasts have been though.

[Cmass495]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, tiger_deF said:

What the heck is going on here?

A map of a 1006mb surface low and associated wind barbs, giving some indication where best forcing and lift is, I guess?

[Greg]

Actually, we'll find out in about 2 Hours from now.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

What the heck is going on here?

Good question I have absolutely no idea, it looks like there are 3 lows. I’ve never seen anything like it!

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 minute ago, Cmass495 said:

At first glance this looks odd, but there is fresh convection that just spouted near HAT...not talking about the stuff 200 miles east

[George001]

Regardless of what happens that’s really damn cool, 3 lows! If even one low becomes dominant and absorbs the others this could get really interesting.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

At first glance this looks odd, but there is fresh convection that just spouted near HAT...not talking about the stuff 200 miles east

That’s using sfc obs and there’s none out over the ocean so the isobars will look funky along the coast. 

[tiger_deF]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

A map of a 1006mb surface low and associated wind barbs, giving some indication where best forcing and lift is, I guess?

Interesting seeing that middle area of low pressure closer to the coast. 

[The Graupler]

11 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

What the heck is going on here?

 Classic elongated snoopy facing leftward into the soupy primordial ooze setup typical this time of year 

[wxsniss]

Wave spacing... has this been an issue before this season?

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

Regardless of what happens that’s really damn cool, 3 lows! If even one low becomes dominant and absorbs the others this could get really interesting.

In meteorology, that's called a threesome. 

[78Blizzard]

Convection really blowing up now just E of ACY.

 

 

[Sn0waddict]

14 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

What the heck is going on here?

Convective confusion. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Interesting seeing that middle area of low pressure closer to the coast. 

Yeah, I was just looking verbatim.  Nowcast storm.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Convection really blowing up now just E of ACY.

 

 

 

That's fine as long as it's not 100mi E of ACY.

[78Blizzard]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

That's fine as long as it's not 100mi E of ACY.

Just a few miles offshore.

[wxsniss]

This activity off NJ not depicted on NAM until 2-3 hours later. Let's see how this progresses.

[IowaStorm05]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

This activity off NJ not depicted on NAM until 2-3 hours later. Let's see how this progresses.

I’m sorry for sounding ignorant but what are the implications of this to the storm we are expecting?. Explain like I’m 5 years old about this influence.