Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[WxWatcher007]

I’m just getting back. What the hell happened?

[JC-CT]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m just getting back. What the hell happened?

I'd ask you the same

[RedSky]

10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Hey guys just popping in. Was wondering if anyone knows how much snow Philadelphia, PA is getting? Thanks!

They are getting the middle finger at this time

 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m just getting back. What the hell happened?

[IowaStorm05]

15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Here's one for you.

 

This would be such a fully comprehensive quintessential East Coast snowstorm. Like a classic look to me of what people expect in winter. It’s nailing coastal Virginia all the way to Boston at this stage. One can dream 

[JC-CT]

GFS held serve fwiw

[wxsniss]

26 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

FWIW the HREF members are a bit juicier across SNE at 00z than they were at 12z. 

Supports Box forecast map…


 

light / mid / dark green: 6-8 / 8-10 / 10-12

[IowaStorm05]

Just now, JC-CT said:

GFS held serve fwiw

Kinda holds a bizarre hot dog shaped hole over RI and southeastern CT

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

GFS held serve fwiw

And it was quite good at 18z…if I remember correctly? Can’t seem to keep up with the changes. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, IowaStorm05 said:

Kinda holds a bizarre hot dog shaped hole over RI and southeastern CT

That's called the new climo

[JC-CT]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

And it was quite good at 18z…if I remember correctly? Can’t seem to keep up with the changes. 

Yeah. Maybe it's a tad less than 18z, but it's noise to me. Same banding sig

[78Blizzard]

18 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Hey guys just popping in. Was wondering if anyone knows how much snow Philadelphia, PA is getting? Thanks!

I heard 3".

[weathafella]

So we kind of went crazy over HRRR, RAP, NAM.   As the big boys come in, no change.  

[WinterWolf]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Yeah. Maybe it's a tad less than 18z, but it's noise to me. Same banding sig

We Band. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

GFS held serve fwiw

Good.  Maybe get a marginal tug west if it intensifies quickly enough.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weathafella said:

So we kind of went crazy over HRRR, RAP, NAM.   As the big boys come in, no change.  

Exactly.  
 

Keep the faith, hold the line. Stand steadfast. It’s gonna snow.  

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

We Band. 

Stick the flag in the ground. 4-8. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs is easily 8+ here 

[IowaStorm05]

 

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs is easily 8+ here 

Aggressive beast. I could only dream the low unexpectedly bombs out just after it goes offshore and we all get 15”

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So we kind of went crazy over HRRR, RAP, NAM.   As the big boys come in, no change.  

This is a now cast

models imo have demonstrated many times that they struggle mightily when there are two dual competing lows . I think there are situations they just can’t figure it out well .

[wxsniss]

So we kind of went crazy over HRRR, RAP, NAM.   As the big boys come in, no change.  

Yep, though I’d weigh mesos increasingly inside 24hrs.

RGEM and GFS held.
NAM RAP HRRR increasingly favor the eastern low.

GFS also did shift in favor of eastern low, but end result was same as 18z.

I’d do more upstream real-time analysis of that eastern low but I’m mobile.

[NotSureWeather]

Looks like a band is trying to come off of LI right now. I have a 40% chance of snow at 1AM. Which has not been there all day.

[IowaStorm05]

1 minute ago, NotSureWeather said:

Looks like a band is trying to come off of LI right now. I have a 40% chance of snow at 1AM. Which has not been there all day.

Accuweather radar suggests snow overspreading CT after 11pm-midnight 

[The Graupler]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is a now cast

models imo have demonstrated many times that they struggle mightily when there are two dual competing lows . I think there are situations they just can’t figure it out well .

Don’t tell us what is and isn’t a nowcast.

 

looks models arent prefect but they’re better than chewing on dry spaghetti spitting it out on the floor and counting the pieces of spaghetti that aren’t stuck together and calling that for the storm total.  

[NotSureWeather]

1 minute ago, The Graupler said:

Don’t tell us what is and isn’t a nowcast.

 

looks models arent prefect but they’re better than chewing on dry spaghetti spitting it out on the floor and counting the pieces of spaghetti that aren’t stuck together and calling that for the storm total.  

This is my first time doing this so Im not sure this is correct but…

 

beer?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Haha, the best reaction to a post yet. 

[The 4 Seasons]

9 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

 

Aggressive beast. I could only dream the low unexpectedly bombs out just after it goes offshore and we all get 15”

Add that the 2" you got from Mondays storm

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, The Graupler said:

Don’t tell us what is and isn’t a nowcast.

 

looks models arent prefect but they’re better than chewing on dry spaghetti spitting it out on the floor and counting the pieces of spaghetti that aren’t stuck together and calling that for the storm total.  

Is this some obscure way of using the I-Ching to predict weather?   I like it.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, The Graupler said:

Don’t tell us what is and isn’t a nowcast.

 

looks models arent prefect but they’re better than chewing on dry spaghetti spitting it out on the floor and counting the pieces of spaghetti that aren’t stuck together and calling that for the storm total.  

He’s right, it’s a nowcast. Models have the right idea but even small initialization errors would lead to major changes. Miller Bs are notoriously difficult to forecast. 

[IowaStorm05]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Add that the 2" you got from Mondays storm

That’s rude 

03z RAP looks a little better than 02z