Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Heisy]

Cmc looks like a bomb on the black and white maps 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Cmc looks like a bomb on the black and white maps 

Yep looks good

[George001]

To my untrained eyes the it looks like the low is going negatively tilted really early, deepening rapidly and closing off on the 500 mb just a little bit too far NW for something really big (it’s still a nice storm regardless). Great run.

[MJO812]

[George001]

Holy shit I just looked at the snow maps and it gives the Boston area like a foot and areas just to the NW close to 2 feet where it stays all snow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah that’s essentially projecting a severe winter storm …

this run is a slightly slower/deeper version of the 12z. 

watch the ridge in the west this run and compare. It’s slight taller and immediately the system slows down trading E for S component in system translation speed. It’s subtle but that’s 12+” vs 6-9”

keeping in mind it’s the GGEM 

[ineedsnow]

Ukie looks good

[40/70 Benchmark]

LOL

20" burger right over my weather station. I forgive December if the 00z GEM would verify. Shades of 2/1/21 with the coastal gradient....good stuff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

UK has about the same exact distribution, just half of the amounts....nice naked twister potential NW of Boston. Looks like a late-bloomer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like its the GFS and ICON that remain unimpressive...even the Australian model is 12"+,  mate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEPS mean is over the BM.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro is 984 over scooter. This one reminds me of 2/1/21.....get in the shed, scooter!

[weathafella]

Euro looks similar to yesterday's 0Z.  A lot of taint but going by 925s there's a way to salvage decent snows left of the track.

[ineedsnow]

ill sign for this Euro run

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro looks similar to yesterday's 0Z.  A lot of taint but going by 925s there's a way to salvage decent snows left of the track.

Better than yesterday 00z...hair warmer than 12z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

ill sign for this Euro run

Likewise.

Yet another trend towards more amplitude...this one looks nice.

[ineedsnow]

Euro is close to a foot here fun tracking the next few days

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its looks like its better than 12z from me to ORH points N and W, and a little worse points se....storm is a bit more impressive.

Again, the main trend seems to be towards faster and better development of the low...helps the interior, and hurts the coast a bit w respect to snowfall.

[IowaStorm05]

This is a lot of agreement on a storm despite being 4 days out.

Honesty this one is going to **** with my head to track. Everybody knows the NW ticking that goes on with these all the time.

having a 4 day period of model suspense and revelations is bad for my mental health just because I get upset if it pulls in rain, when we just had a snowstorm miss to the south. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Kuchera is 1-2' in NNE now.

[George001]

How does the snow maps look like near my area? I feel like my areas gonna be right on the rain snow line.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

How does the snow maps look like near my area? I feel like my areas gonna be right on the rain snow line.

You have about 6".

[ineedsnow]

working Thursday night could be a fun drive home Friday morning

[George001]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have about 6".

Nice, that’s a solid hit for my area with a lot more just to the NW too. This storm has a lot of potential.

[weathafella]

EPS mean is right over ACK it looks like.  Good amount of spread still so keep your minds open.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, weathafella said:

EPS mean is right over ACK it looks like.  Good amount of spread still so keep your minds open.

Yup...some deep members showing up.

[wxsniss]

Been a while (last winter) since we've had consensus for a big one... and guidance that is steady (strong signal since before NYE, 7 days)

Current model weight and receding NAO make me think hugger is more likely than ots

GFS today was a significant outlier

EPS members:

[MJO812]

Gefs starting to trend to the amplified solutions.

[Damage In Tolland]

Interring set of runs as we hone in on start time late Thursday . We are due for a good old fashioned Scooter melt. He’s good for 1-2 per winter. So this would time well 

[dendrite]

Pretty much all downhill for here after that run.