Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[OceanStWx]

29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I will say the HRRR extended runs at 00/06/12/18z have been pretty good this season IMO.  I've watched it more than normal for whatever reason.  The hourly differences can be crap, but the earlier runs showing a good hit from you to BOS were in that extended range that has seemed ok this winter at least up here.  Who knows.  It's not terrible when taken in the aggregate, just the hour to hour runs diminish it's value.  It'd be like running the 3km NAM hourly, of course there's going to be a lot of variety. 

Learn to love it, because it’s going FV3 core and running to 60 hours and you’re going to lose the NAM and HRRR.

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is when it becomes unreadable 

It's been like this since we started tracking this storm, up, down back up  down again.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Learn to love it, because it’s going FV3 core and running to 60 hours and you’re going to lose the NAM and HRRR.

Do you know when ?

[TalcottWx]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

[DavisStraight]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

I just got called to cover a 7 to 4 shift tomorrow.  Gladly will drive in heavy snow tomorrow. Love driving while everyone else is home.

You have 4 wheel or all wheel drive? I used to love driving in the snow when I had my Toyota Tacoma with the snow tires, never got stuck.

[WeatherHappens]

5 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Well, in 1930, people in Boston were thirsty, so they gathered all the local antivax smallpoxers in the towns of Petersham, New Salem, Hardwick, Ware, Belchertown, Shutesbury, Pelham. Then they filled all the towns up with water and drown them and it became the quabbin reservoir. Now Boston drinks the blood of the dead. 

and i enjoy every drop

[Hoth]

We need to round up a search party to find @Zeus. Pre-gaming a snowstorm just ain't right without him. He's been spending too much time with Hera.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

A bit more robust than the 12z run!!

Booyakaka 

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

A bit more robust than the 12z run!!

*tblizz* : "omg can't believe the mega death band moved across to the lawn across the street" 

You're like listening to Elon Musk complain and gloat about paying taxes

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s definitely all about the convection. Those uglier RAP runs and HRRR runs are chasing. We’ll know how real it is later this evening. 

IMHO, if guidance is still reversing trends this late in the game, its simply going to be a nowcast aspect that models can not resolve. This doesn't necessarily mean it works out favorably either...its not a weenieism to ignore unfavorable trends, but rather an acknowledgement that if it's not resolved at 10 hours lead, then maybe it won't be.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

We need to round up a search party to find @Zeus. Pre-gaming a snowstorm just ain't right without him. He's been spending too much time with Hera.

He moved to Joisy.

[wxsniss]

23 minutes ago, Hoth said:

There was a big storm a few years back where the models were latching onto nodes of convection and a multi-low structure. Similar to today, there was a lot of consternation in here that it was going to tug the system out to sea or cut off the conveyors. In reality, the western low wound up predominating, the convection was a non-factor and everyone got a big hit. I want to say it was the Jan '18 blizzard, but I can't say for sure. Anyone remember? Will?

I know what you're referring to... now this is bothering me too lol... I remember dubbing it "mogwai" because multiple pieces of vorticity spawned all these disparate surface lows upon hitting the coast and as a result guidance was a mess... the night before was stressful in this forum... ultimately consolidated west and we had a blizzard

I thought it was March 13 2018 blizzard but that was a fujiwara of 2 distinct lows

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

He moved to Joisy.

Devastating.

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

and i enjoy every drop

And every flush

[PowderBeard]

Not sure if it is too far off-shore for radar to pick-up or what but the convection off the Carolinas seems to have dissipated since 5/6pm.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

I know what you're referring to... now this is bothering me too lol... I remember dubbing it "mogwai" because multiple pieces of vorticity spawned all these disparate surface lows upon hitting the coast and as a result guidance was a mess... the night before was stressful in this forum... ultimately consolidated west and we had a blizzard

I thought it was March 13 2018 blizzard but that was a fujiwara of 2 distinct lows

That is exactly how I remember it. Just can't remember the damn date!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

The east low is stronger by 2 mb at hour 8 on HRRR. 

Banding is much more in line with the 12z, 18z runs, much more robust again on 00z than the previous 5 runs.. 

[Sn0waddict]

Just now, PowderBeard said:

Not sure if it is too far off-shore for radar to pick-up or what but the convection off the Carolinas seems to have dissipated since 5/6pm.

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Learn to love it, because it’s going FV3 core and running to 60 hours and you’re going to lose the NAM and HRRR.

I don't hate it.  The 3km NAM is just as useless or useful... It bounces around but I've come to like the HRRR four main runs a day over the 3km NAM.  3km NAM has some high terrain errors in QPF/moisture progs that the HRRR seems to resolve better too.  That affects my opinion a bit.  Synoptic coastal storms might be different.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Devastating.

Agree 

[DavisStraight]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

We need to round up a search party to find @Zeus. Pre-gaming a snowstorm just ain't right without him. He's been spending too much time with Hera.

He posted last night, he moved to Jersey, his humor is missed.

[78Blizzard]

Just looking at the latest radar loop of that offshore convection, along with the rest of our system.  The convection seems to be drying up just off NC coast, and that main blob doesn't seem to be strengthening.  Right now, anyway.

 

 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The east low is stronger by 2 mb at hour 8 on HRRR

yup looked better at first then ended up chasing

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

He posted last night, he moved to Jersey, his humor is missed.

Yes, he is hysterically funny.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Just looking at the latest radar loop of that offshore convection, along with the rest of our system.  The convection seems to be drying up just off NC coast, and that main blob doesn't seem to be strengthening.  Right now, anyway.

 

 

theres dry air in that area hope it eats it away

[weatherwiz]

The current radar presentation doesn't seem bad at all and actually looks promising. There's a ton of juice available with this. Most model guidance really had this dissipating a bit as it moved across the mountains but that hasn't been the case. Some pretty impressive snow totals too out of WV/KY/TN. 0z too doesn't seem awful 

[bishbish777]

Well we wanted the two lows to "squeeze" together...the 00Z HRRR has pretty much done that...western low is pretty much gone.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

You have 4 wheel or all wheel drive? I used to love driving in the snow when I had my Toyota Tacoma with the snow tires, never got stuck.

4 wheel Colorado 

[PowderBeard]

 

[Sn0waddict]

0Z HRRR was definitely better though.