Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[weathafella]

There’s a meso which hasn’t yet cut back-our friend the euro.  Don’t forget that.  I was schooled by wxniss over this about 10 years ago.

[IowaStorm05]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The rap cut backs are concerning 

Still looks decent to me upwards of 6 inches in a lot of CT…. But I wasn’t around for the last few hours to see older ones 

[nutmegfriar]

14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

WTF?  All the school districts around here have already canceled for tomorrow.

We were already marginally on the fringe of this system. If this nowcasts East, it’s going to be laughable that they canceled for an inch or two. 

I agree with the other posts.  Some closings may really be more about Covid and giving staff and students a three-day break from close contact.

[ORH_wxman]

18z euro was a little better than 12z imho. 

[Heat Miser]

2 minutes ago, nutmegfriar said:

I agree with the other posts.  Some closings may really be more about Covid and giving staff and students a three-day break from close contact.

My local school district put out a memo stating that they were operating on an "hour to hour basis" based on COVID-related staffing issues. I would guess they're quite relieved to have a Friday snow day.

[Damage In Tolland]

We should expect a bust post from Tblizz very very soon 

[tiger_deF]

The past several HRRR hourglass have been continually weakening the western low and strengthening the eastern one per the same timeframe. The overall system has also been ticcing west 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We should expect a bust post from Tblizz very very soon 

Well HRR and RAP are flags to keep your eye on.    I wouldn’t change the forecast but I’d watch 0Z. guidance to see if they’re onto something 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

The past several HRRR hourglass have been continually weakening the western low and strengthening the eastern one per the same timeframe. The overall system has also been ticcing west 

it's actually a very annoying trend for CT

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Well HRR and RAP are flags to keep your eye on.    I wouldn’t change the forecast but I’d watch 0Z. guidance to see if they’re onto something 

HRRR is terrible in snow . Great in convection. Euro , Reggie , Gfs 18z all increased 

[IowaStorm05]

3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

The past several HRRR hourglass have been continually weakening the western low and strengthening the eastern one per the same timeframe. The overall system has also been ticcing west 

What exactly does that mean for the various parts of SNE? I noticed a new suggestion in recent runs of a maximum roughly around the line from Hartford to ORH.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

They just shut our schools down. Delayed opening would have been sufficient imo. 

[wxsniss]

53 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So per what wxniss just posted the coastal is 1012 vs modeled 1007 at this time by NAM?

Hey Jerry sorry juggling other stuff at moment...

Major reason 23z RAP stunk vs. 20z RAP is that eastern low refuses to decay and steals best dynamics east faster.

Possible. I'm skeptical given the vortmax farther west over KY/WV and associated ground results.

It's early, but using surface pressure and wind responses, was trying to see if guidance was too aggressive with that easternmost low.

[ORH_wxman]

It’s definitely all about the convection. Those uglier RAP runs and HRRR runs are chasing. We’ll know how real it is later this evening. 

[IowaStorm05]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

HRRR is terrible in snow . Great in convection. Euro , Reggie , Gfs 18z all increased 

It’s not exactly long range for those models but it’s not 4 hours away either. I guess. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

HRRR is terrible in snow . Great in convection. Euro , Reggie , Gfs 18z all increased 

Yeah but RAP did after 18z so it’s not apples to apples 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

HRRR is terrible in snow . Great in convection. Euro , Reggie , Gfs 18z all increased 

That’s not true but ok.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s not true but ok.

I’m sticking with the risk that Tblizz mixes at some point 

[Hoth]

Hey, been out of the loop since the Nam-pocolypse last night. What I miss?

[ineedsnow]

does the 0z RAP and HRRR get all the new data from balloon launches and other obs?

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

HRRR is terrible in snow . Great in convection. Euro , Reggie , Gfs 18z all increased 

I will say the HRRR extended runs at 00/06/12/18z have been pretty good this season IMO.  I've watched it more than normal for whatever reason.  The hourly differences can be crap, but the earlier runs showing a good hit from you to BOS were in that extended range that has seemed ok this winter at least up here.  Who knows.  It's not terrible when taken in the aggregate, just the hour to hour runs diminish it's value.  It'd be like running the 3km NAM hourly, of course there's going to be a lot of variety. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

does the 0z RAP and HRRR get all the new data from balloon launches and other obs?

Note those specific runs. As far as I know.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Hoth said:

Hey, been out of the loop since the Nam-pocolypse last night. What I miss?

A circus, as usual.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m sticking with the risk that Tblizz mixes at some point 

I wouldn’t change anything, but something to watch.

[radarman]

Even in GC schools are closed already.  I mean maybe they get some east slope magic, but they could also have a run of the mill 1-2", of which they get 20x a year.   I guess when you have nobody to drive buses and plow and teach and go to class, you might as well bag it.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Hey, been out of the loop since the Nam-pocolypse last night. What I miss?

A lot of drama posts.

[butterfish55]

Hey, been out of the loop since the Nam-pocolypse last night. What I miss?

Dozens of posts about the intricacies of RI geography

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

Even in GC schools are closed already.  I mean maybe they get some east slope magic, but they could also have a run of the mill 1-2", of which they get 20x a year.   I guess when you have nobody to drive buses and plow and teach and go to class, you might as well bag it.

Shut 'em down... a winter weather advisory is good enough cover reason regardless of outcome.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, radarman said:

Even in GC schools are closed already.  I mean maybe they get some east slope magic, but they could also have a run of the mill 1-2", of which they get 20x a year.   I guess when you have nobody to drive buses and plow and teach and go to class, you might as well bag it.

This year the N Berks are desperate for any snow.  A woman I know who is a State Park ranger at Wendell SP said that Savoy SP is under 6" total since November 1st.  That is highly anomalous.

[weatherwiz]

We have seen many times in the past where models like the HRRR/RAP are first to pick up on convective-robbery so seeing those models with that sort of indication is certainly something that should be noted. At this point it's predominately nowcast and watching how the storm evolves over the next several hours (keeping in mind what the HRRR/RAP are advertising). 

One positive though is the degree of convection doesn't appear to be rather robust or substantive so it's quite possible the HRRR/RAP could be putting a bit too much emphasis on it's robbery of moisture. Favorable dynamics aloft too should provide good large-scale lift so hopefully that works to our favor.