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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


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So. For tomorrows storm, it is my understanding that NOW it is just too late to get a jump north by 40 miles? 

What about in 2007? Was the tech really any worse off back then?

As recently as 2016 I recall discussions on the eve before snowstorms coming to IA that there was an uncertainty margin of about 25 miles when you’re 12 to 24 hours from the event.

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2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

So. For tomorrows storm, it is my understanding that NOW it is just too late to get a jump north by 40 miles

What about in 2007? Was the tech really any worse off back then?

As recently as 2016 I recall discussions on the eve before snowstorms coming to IA that there was an uncertainty margin of about 25 miles when you’re 12 to 24 hours from the event.

Of course it could be just as likely to jump 40 miles south.

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this is why I was laughing at the microanalysis of the 12z EPS. It took 6 hours to look different.

It’s so far out in time.  Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then.  Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity.

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s so far out in time.  Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then.  Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity.

That is our lot here when it comes to snowstorms.  But a cutter bringing a rainer... a model 8-9 days out is golden most of the time, lol.

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9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That is our lot here when it comes to snowstorms.  But a cutter bringing a rainer... a model 8-9 days out is golden most of the time, lol.

yeah, this does seem to be the case, models nail the cutters, but swing and miss on coastals, but this ones been there for a bit now and the pattern shuffle and now some real cold moving in seems like more a possibility than most recent ones.

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38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s so far out in time.  Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then.  Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity.

It's why I laugh at storm threads a week in advance 

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15 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

yeah, this does seem to be the case, models nail the cutters, but swing and miss on coastals, but this ones been there for a bit now and the pattern shuffle and now some real cold moving in seems like more a possibility than most recent ones.

well a cutter can have a 750 mile swing and still be a cutter, so we don't notice the shifts.  But a coastal has like 200 miles to work with and we fight and cry and celebrate over a 10 mile shift, so...

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5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

well a cutter can have a 750 mile swing and still be a cutter, so we don't notice the shifts.  But a coastal has like 200 miles to work with and we fight and cry and celebrate over a 10 mile shift, so...

I would even go so far as to set those ratios at a cutter has 1000 miles and a coastal  has about 100 miles of play.  

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52 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s so far out in time.  Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then.  Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity.

I feel more alive living and dying by model runs every 6 hours.

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