MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said: 18z GFS still a whiff but improved from 12z. Gefs is much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 31 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Time to start a winter 2022-23 thread? Ray's on it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Does anyone have access to the 18z EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 26 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Does anyone have access to the 18z EC? Yes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 32 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Does anyone have access to the 18z EC? What do you want to know it doesn’t go out far enough for Friday’s storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 So. For tomorrows storm, it is my understanding that NOW it is just too late to get a jump north by 40 miles? What about in 2007? Was the tech really any worse off back then? As recently as 2016 I recall discussions on the eve before snowstorms coming to IA that there was an uncertainty margin of about 25 miles when you’re 12 to 24 hours from the event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What do you want to know it doesn’t go out far enough for Friday’s storm Really? Learn something new every day. (and yet we've had a thread for 3 days already). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Really? Learn something new every day. Only goes out to hr 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: So. For tomorrows storm, it is my understanding that NOW it is just too late to get a jump north by 40 miles? What about in 2007? Was the tech really any worse off back then? As recently as 2016 I recall discussions on the eve before snowstorms coming to IA that there was an uncertainty margin of about 25 miles when you’re 12 to 24 hours from the event. Of course it could be just as likely to jump 40 miles south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Of course it could be just as likely to jump 40 miles south. Well, yes. But I’m trying to focus on the statistics of such a deviation whether south or north, inside 24 hours advance notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said: Well, yes. But I’m trying to focus on the statistics of such a deviation whether south or north, inside 24 hours advance notice. Wrong thread. EPS is less tucked at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 DIT is closer to being right at 18z than he was at 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Ray's on it Lol I am excited about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, weathafella said: Wrong thread. EPS is less tucked at 18z Sorry it doesn’t specify which system it’s talking about. I didn’t know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Much better look than 12z for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Yeah this is why I was laughing at the microanalysis of the 12z EPS. It took 6 hours to look different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Shifting SE every 6 hours. I'll be fringed by tomorrow afternoon and then will need to wait to see if it comes back. Very hard to get a low to just climb into the GOM it seems. They either head to the Lakes or get shredded and shunted to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this is why I was laughing at the microanalysis of the 12z EPS. It took 6 hours to look different. It’s so far out in time. Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then. Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s so far out in time. Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then. Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity. That is our lot here when it comes to snowstorms. But a cutter bringing a rainer... a model 8-9 days out is golden most of the time, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: That is our lot here when it comes to snowstorms. But a cutter bringing a rainer... a model 8-9 days out is golden most of the time, lol. yeah, this does seem to be the case, models nail the cutters, but swing and miss on coastals, but this ones been there for a bit now and the pattern shuffle and now some real cold moving in seems like more a possibility than most recent ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 38 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s so far out in time. Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then. Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity. It's why I laugh at storm threads a week in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, tavwtby said: yeah, this does seem to be the case, models nail the cutters, but swing and miss on coastals, but this ones been there for a bit now and the pattern shuffle and now some real cold moving in seems like more a possibility than most recent ones. well a cutter can have a 750 mile swing and still be a cutter, so we don't notice the shifts. But a coastal has like 200 miles to work with and we fight and cry and celebrate over a 10 mile shift, so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: well a cutter can have a 750 mile swing and still be a cutter, so we don't notice the shifts. But a coastal has like 200 miles to work with and we fight and cry and celebrate over a 10 mile shift, so... this is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: well a cutter can have a 750 mile swing and still be a cutter, so we don't notice the shifts. But a coastal has like 200 miles to work with and we fight and cry and celebrate over a 10 mile shift, so... I would even go so far as to set those ratios at a cutter has 1000 miles and a coastal has about 100 miles of play. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 NEXT 48hrs HRRR is shifting a bit further N. A butterfly fart "could, might, possibly" bring accumulating snow into coastal CT most of RI and E. MA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 52 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s so far out in time. Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then. Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity. I feel more alive living and dying by model runs every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Gfs is still ots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 GFS still a whiff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is still ots 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: GFS still a whiff. Probably a good thing at 5 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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