Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

Here we go again.  Same Old Story.  

 

A Storm Starts Out to Sea where NW of me is out of the game, Then I’m forecast to be in the Jackpot, THEN the day of the storm / Nowcasting, The Jackpot moves to NW of me.  
 

It’s happened oh 15,748 times.  

15, 749

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Don't get caught on the wrong side of that line.....

I don't think I will...greater shot of band being NW of me.

[DavisStraight]

Already most schools closing in this area.

[weatherwiz]

Somewhere around BDL 9z Friday. It's going to be dumping and thumping 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Non essential government workers snow day tomorrow

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think I will...greater shot of band being NW of me.

You look good.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Somewhere around BDL 9z Friday. It's going to be dumping and thumping 

Yes... that has me worried for the Hartford area. Could definitely see a 10" jack in that mid level banding given the MAUL and good snow growth. 

[TheSnowman]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Gassing up for a Brattleboro road trip? 

You guys are Freaking Brutal 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yes... that has me worried for the Hartford area. Could definitely see a 10" jack in that mid level banding given the MAUL and good snow growth. 

Some of those soundings would argue for greater than 15 to 1 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

If he was my employee, he'd be fired! Millennial work ethic...

Good luck finding a replacement these days. 

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

You guys are Freaking Brutal 

Cheer up your part of the state usually does pretty well in this sort of setup. Maybe you won’t be the New England jack pot but there’s a good chance you could be the RI one…

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

You guys are Freaking Brutal 

Drive to Brewster.  Once you see it raining or mixing you have a shot at getting back in time once you turn around.

[tunafish]

I thought MAUL was a descriptor of snow rates, but perhaps it's an acronym for something?

 

[CT Rain]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of those soundings would argue for greater than 15 to 1 

I know. Not really comfortable ditching my 3-6 in Hartford... but a crush/fluff job under that mid level band wouldn't shock me.

[78Blizzard]

My wife had to go to the supermarket, unfortunately, and found it just crazy with people buying things like they would be stuck in for days.  This is what happens when the media and internet use their scare headlines "the storm could rapidly strengthen overnight and develop into a bomb cyclone".  That includes people who should know better, like Accuweather.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Harvey's heavy area is 6-9 eastern areas

He struggled mightily with this one from the get go.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I know. Not really comfortable ditching my 3-6 in Hartford... but a crush/fluff job under that mid level band wouldn't shock me.

Rip and read the Kfs 

[Henry's Weather]

17 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

We built a room on our house which is ideal for snow watching (and severe watching for that matter).  I'll call it the weenie room.   I'll be breaking it in tomorrow.

Be sure to send pics

[George001]

My forecast of 8-12 iso 12-16 from a few days ago hasn’t changed yet and won’t, I’m sticking with my guns. Based on the storm over performing down south, if this busts I think it’s going to be a little too conservative.

[dryslot]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We knew.

You thought.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

You thought.

LOL in all seriousness, like Will said earlier.....it’s nice to see some pattern recognition that when you have a strong s/w kissing the undercarriage of SNE, chances are it won’t whiff.

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

You guys are Freaking Brutal 

Andover has a 48" pack already.

[CoastalWx]

That’s a sick sounding for BDL. 

[Greg]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He struggled mightily with this one from the get go.

Not really. Last night he was one of the first to go 4-8" here while many were still at 3-6". Not sure what you're getting at unless you mean you area specifically.

[CoastalWx]

I do hate seeing the hrrr persistent with that low well east. Hurts the conveyor belts like Ryan said. 

[CoastalWx]

I want that ****ing moisture slammed into the south coast like March 2019. 

[wxsniss]

18z 3k NAM (left) vs. mesoanalysis for 22z... this is promising... (the east system is weak / disorganized)

 

21z HRRR (vs. earlier runs) hangs on to the eastern SLP a little longer... let's hope it's wrong

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

18z 3k NAM (left) vs. mesoanalysis for 22z... this is promising... (the east system is weak / disorganized)

 

21z HRRR (vs. earlier runs) hangs on to the eastern SLP a little longer... let's hope it's wrong

Wow that comparison looks like it bodes excellently for a consolidated evolution

[kdxken]

How much for shutesbury?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL in all seriousness, like Will said earlier.....it’s nice to see some pattern recognition that when you have a strong s/w kissing the undercarriage of SNE, chances are it won’t whiff.

I never saw the whiff either, Just needed to make sure that vort stayed amped as it rounded the base of the trough,  I only kept seeing the less then favorable track for us up here with the convection tugging this east, If we can get that reconciled and handled like the GFS is handling it at 18z, There will be surprises further north, That was the best run in about 10 cycles or so up here on the GFS, But were close to kissing the fronto band as this wraps up a hair or two sooner and gets a tic or two west, Its only about 20-30 miles.