Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RAP has been getting better each run it seems. Still out of its wheelhouse, but it'll be interesting to see if this carries over the 18z model suite for the big boys.

I love that they added the regional zones to the RAP on PW.  

[CoastalWx]

I could see some angry posts to start if the HRRR is right. Initial band is well NW and many in ern CT into RI and ern MA patiently wait. That probably will happen. Those areas will slam an hour or two later.

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RAP has been getting better each run it seems. Still out of its wheelhouse, but it'll be interesting to see if this carries over the 18z model suite for the big boys.

I like what I see on the spc meso analysis. Maybe it's weenie goggles, but it seems like every hour, short term guidance is putting too much emphasis on the lead convection. Plus, I see some very small evidence of circulation out there on the radar/satellite, but not nearly what I would have expected based on guidance from this morning. Subtle, obviously.

[Sn0waddict]

RAP is 6+ for almost all of CT, and more for SE MA.  Would take that in a second.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You can see how consolidated the RAP is trying to get the low by tomorrow morning...this is 15z (10am) tomorrow

 

 

What a weenie run that is. 

[CT Rain]

You can see the RAP closing the H7 low over Long Island Sound. Not a bad look. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18z rap looks solid for what that’s worth 

[CoastalWx]

HRRR trying for more double low meh. 

[subdude]

32 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would be psyched with 5"   That would more than double my seasonal total so far.

I'm sticking with 2-4"...lol  Hope Ray takes me to his woodshed

Sounds about right for our area. This is looking like a 495S blaster. 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I could see some angry posts to start if the HRRR is right. Initial band is well NW and many in ern CT into RI and ern MA patiently wait. That probably will happen. Those areas will slam an hour or two later.

I see that on a few models. I had the same thought - probably a few premature bust calls overnight

[ineedsnow]

18z RAP was great  hope it has a clue even the HRRR didnt look bad here

[Cyclone-68]

Any thunder possibilities with this tomorrow morning or is it just not explosive enough a deal for that? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

HRRR trying for more double low meh. 

The double low is going to cap totals on this event… too bad. Nice event as is, but could have been a contendah

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

RAP is 6+ for almost all of CT, and more for SE MA.  Would take that in a second.

[JC-CT]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The double low is going to cap totals on this event… too bad. Nice event as is, but could have been a contendah

for albany maybe

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I could see some angry posts to start if the HRRR is right. Initial band is well NW and many in ern CT into RI and ern MA patiently wait. That probably will happen. Those areas will slam an hour or two later.

It's chasing that offshore convection instead of consolidating the low as the RAP is showing.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, subdude said:

Sounds about right for our area. This is looking like a 495S blaster. 

Congrats you and Dave on HRRR. It's possible.

[CT Rain]

The HRRR is ripping supercells over the Gulf Stream. Definitely the reason for the double low and generally unimpressive QPF. Totally disrupts to warm conveyorbelt processes. Meh.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR trying for more double low meh. 

snow maps actually end up higher here compared to 12z   better banding?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Congrats you and Dave on HRRR. It's possible.

It jacks you lol. TBlizz, please log off scooters acct.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It jacks you lol. TBlizz, please log off scooters acct.

I meant as a local jack for them. I could see that or somewhere within there to SNH or NE MA. That initial weenie band.

[Greg]

Winter Storm Warning expanded to all North Shore area now per National Weather Service/ Boston/ Norton, MA

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I meant as a local jack for them. I could see that or somewhere within there to SNH or NE MA. That initial weenie band.

Ah ok. Your area gets clipped by the ccb though…should be a fun couple hours there if it pans out. 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The HRRR is ripping supercells over the Gulf Stream. Definitely the reason for the double low and generally unimpressive QPF. Totally disrupts to warm conveyorbelt processes. Meh.

tons of dry air in the Atlantic where there located right now guessing that changes 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ah ok. Your area gets clipped by the ccb though…should be a fun couple hours there if it pans out. 

Just hoping for 5-6"+. I don't expect nor care about jacks. At this point, I just want to enjoy some snow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

Winter Storm Warning expanded to all North Shore area now per National Weather Service/ Boston/ Norton, MA

The KTOL trolling has made it to Bos now.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah it's really like the RAP just doesn't grid those convective issues at all, so it ends up with 990 mb low and actual Nor'easter look. 

I dunno how to resolve that difference from those models that do incorporate plausible effects ( limiting as they may be...) wrt to convection out there. 

Part of me wants to say the flat open wave nature to the total S/W space, with flat-like lead S/W ridging out ahead, would tend to support convective clusters robbing potential vorticity from center. 

now cast it I suppose... I mean, we'll probably know at about 1 am this next morning if the models were too sensy to the convective parameterization by observing sat and gunk.

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

Winter Storm Warning expanded to all North Shore area now per National Weather Service/ Boston/ Norton, MA

Even the full cape now, too.  So much for that 0-2" many tv mets had.

[CT Rain]

This is definitely an odd look. Can certainly see the EPS struggling with chasing the convection. I actually think even with a really wide spread in those little Ls there's probably not nearly as much spread in the sensible wx impact here. Could certainly see competing lows and a more strung out kind of appearance  but the super out to sea solutions are still going to have a weaker low closer to the coast and plenty of snow in SNE.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

tons of dry air in the Atlantic where there located right now guessing that changes 

Wicked Tuna FTL there.