mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NNE shook There’s as much clustering on the bench mark as there are hairs on the top your head 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol, that clustering is no where close to the BM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Holy Schitchel ! He/she used to be one of my favorite mid rangers down in NCEP .... "..Arctic air will dig across the central then eastern U.S. behind the windy and precipitation focusing low to include a threat of plowable snow from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Northeast. Another quickly developing heavy snow/ice threat with some aforementioned uncertainty is on tap underneath Thu into Fri from the TN/OH Valleys through the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast by frontal low/coastal storm genesis..." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 That cluster would take the low probably right over Boston. The only saving grace on the mean is those far east outliers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: lol, that clustering is no where close to the BM. I count one member of 51 near BM, everything else inside. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 One should say the EPS mean. 51 members and the solutions are all over the board 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I count one member of 51 near BM, everything else inside. The IPAs are producing a BM in his shorts 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The IPAs are producing a BM in his shorts Bowel Mark? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Regardless, a strong signal for something. All you can say. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: One should say the EPS mean. 51 members and the solutions are all over the board They’re so shook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The IPAs are producing a BM in his shorts Gotta watch those ones brewed with lactose. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Thanks. That's quite a few hanging in NYS and west. Hoping we see that change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, moneypitmike said: Thanks. That's quite a few hanging in NYS and west. Hoping we see that change. Those are primary lows in NY state. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They’re so shook Some would rather be shook than what your coping mechanism is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Those are primary lows in NY state. I don't like the more assertive primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Thanks. That's quite a few hanging in NYS and west. Hoping we see that change. I could see that chart on my end, I had to save it then post it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't like the more assertive primary. I’m sure that’ll hold on for dear life after every other system has been shredded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't like the more assertive primary. It’s kind of weird that most OP runs don’t really have a primary up there but several ensemble members do. I’m not super worried about it at this point though. I can tell people are losing their minds when we’re analyzing the EPS individual members this much at 5 days out when it will probably look vastly different in a couple cycles. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m sure that’ll hold on for dear life after every other system has been shredded Not in the mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s kind of weird that most OP runs don’t really have a primary up there but several ensemble members do. I’m not super worried about it at this point though. I can tell people are losing their minds when we’re analyzing the EPS individual members this much at 5 days out when it will probably look vastly different in a couple cycles. Red flag that the GEFS totally lost it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Red flag that the GEFS totally lost it? It’s prob a red flag in the sense that something super amped up the Hudson valley is pretty unlikely. EPS are pretty far west compared to other ensemble suites too. So while I’d weight the EPS the highest, I would still add a little bit of weight to the others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Red flag that the GEFS totally lost it? GEFS are a bit underdispersive, meaning the ensemble will tend to move as one too often. Ideally you would have a lot of different solutions and the ensemble spread would include the correct one. So if the op loses it, I'm not surprised when the GEFS does too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s kind of weird that most OP runs don’t really have a primary up there but several ensemble members do. I’m not super worried about it at this point though. I can tell people are losing their minds when we’re analyzing the EPS individual members this much at 5 days out when it will probably look vastly different in a couple cycles. From what I can see, the EPS is the only model with quite a few members having a primary in the eastern lakes region, so wouldn't that tend to pull the mean to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: GEFS are a bit underdispersive, meaning the ensemble will tend to move as one too often. Ideally you would have a lot of different solutions and the ensemble spread would include the correct one. So if the op loses it, I'm not surprised when the GEFS does too. Heh... I always thought that description best fit the EPS... which it may - just sayn' I've often found that if the operational run "looks" more(less) favorable, the EPS mean does too, in the relative scope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh... I always thought that description best fit the EPS... which it may - just sayn' I've often found that if the operational run "looks" more(less) favorable, the EPS mean does too, in the relative scope. They are underdispersive too, which is one of the reasons why they are upgrading to 100 members soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh... I always thought that description best fit the EPS... which it may - just sayn' I've often found that if the operational run "looks" more(less) favorable, the EPS mean does too, in the relative scope. Yup, the eps has shifted to crap many times at this time frame and it didn’t take days to do . *None of the models have a ensemble suite that remotely accounts for future goal posts at 4-5 day’s out. * so we just want to see multi model support and not lose that regardless of EPs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: They are underdispersive too, which is one of the reasons why they are upgrading to 100 members soon. Ha hahaha... no schnikies - I mean it'd take two shifts to analyze the whole set - you think you'll population the dbs and make ur AFDs in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18z GFS still a whiff but improved from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Time to start a winter 2022-23 thread? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Time to start a winter 2022-23 thread? 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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