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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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PowderBeard

PowderBeard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air rises. You snow.

 

 

image.png.d8c7e2e5c74a9abc8edf385110f1655a.png

Any way to look for potential screw holes/poor growth areas or is it generally just around the areas that receiver better banding?

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, George001 said:

NWS has always been on the more aggressive side even when the guidance looked really weak a couple days ago. Looks like they are doing a great job with this event. We will see tomorrow though.

Hopefully it pans out better than it did for Nantucket the other day....

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IowaStorm05

IowaStorm05

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Wonkis said:

Here for the RI geography throwdown. —oh yeah, and the 4 inches of snow.

The only RI map you need in winter: 

 

RI Geography.png


 

Woonsocket. I once lived there in an older guys basement when I was 19. He was in his 30s and I was sort of creeped out by his liking me… but I was over 18 and otherwise thought he was a cool guy. The basement I lived in was amazingly cozy and homey… and I would smoke weed weed with my friends down there.

Woonsocket is definitely a colder and, in the winter, drier place than most of RI. Woonsocket seems like you’re getting close to the Worcester hills and the snow is most certainly more likely to be powdery.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, IowaStorm05 said:

Woonsocket. I once lived there in an older guys basement when I was 19. He was in his 30s and I was sort of creeped out by his liking me… but I was over 18 and otherwise thought he was a cool guy. The basement I lived in was amazingly cozy and homey… and I would smoke weed weed with my friends down there.

Woonsocket is definitely a colder and, in the winter, drier place than most of RI. Woonsocket seems like you’re getting close to the Worcester hills and the snow is most certainly more likely to be powdery.

are you friends' bodies still down there?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

Any way to look for potential screw holes/poor growth areas or is it generally just around the areas that receiver better banding?

I don't really see any pronounced dryslots or anything. Obviously if you are well west then it might not be as much snow. Usually soundings might show subby areas or areas of poor snow growth where the lift corresponds to a temperature a little too warm or too cold for ideal snow growth.

You don't always need giant dendrites either. Good snow rates with plate type flakes are fine too. Many times the "ideal" time to get the fluffy dendrites is fleeting unless you are lucky to be in a persistent band.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I don’t like how I will have to be asleep when this starts up. Perhaps I could manage to get to sleep early and wake up for it? I dunno. 3am is really early. If I stay up that late I will be all twisted from my normal sleep pattern and I require normalcy for sleep or it is harmful.

:violin:

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't really see any pronounced dryslots or anything. Obviously if you are well west then it might not be as much snow. Usually soundings might show subby areas or areas of poor snow growth where the lift corresponds to a temperature a little too warm or too cold for ideal snow growth.

You don't always need giant dendrites either. Good snow rates with plate type flakes are fine too. Many times the "ideal" time to get the fluffy dendrites is fleeting unless you are lucky to be in a persistent band.

What creates the arctic sand that fringe zones and shadowed areas can be subject to in coastals.  Lack of good lift combined with non-ideal DGZ temps?

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I don’t like how I will have to be asleep when this starts up. Perhaps I could manage to get to sleep early and wake up for it? I dunno. 3am is really early. If I stay up that late I will be all twisted from my normal sleep pattern and I require normalcy for sleep or it is harmful.

If it's occurring outside of your safe space hours, I'd avoid the danger at all costs. 

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Kitzbuhel Craver

Kitzbuhel Craver

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, eduggs said:

It has seemed very steady to me. Run after run after run the focus has been SNJ, LI, the southeastern half of SNE and then EMA with a bonus ending. Nothing has deviated from that for days. There have been some minor shifts within the ensemble spread only meaningful to QPF queens, but overall this has been locked for days.

Well there have been some tantalizing WOR steps, seemingly wanting to step back every other cycle.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

What creates the arctic sand that fringe zones and shadowed areas can be subject to in coastals.  Lack of good lift combined with non-ideal DGZ temps?

The Arctic sand is usually shitty growth caused by lift in a very cold profile. That’s when you get the tiny flakes and Needles. Sometimes the dryslots have that because the snow growth zone dried out and you’re left with lift somewhere in the column  that is not conducive to good flakes. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I tend to look at H7 more because that corresponds to the snow growth area typically. You typically want to be just on the colder side of the fronto packing shown. The atmosphere typically has a circulation up and over that packing, so you will typically see the band of heavy snow just on the colder side of that circulation. 

 

In the image below I circled where it might theoretically be in the snap shot.

That’s the key, where the best snow growth is. And it’s usually just above 700 mb, which is why we want the best fgen forcing there.

37 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Any way to look for potential screw holes/poor growth areas or is it generally just around the areas that receiver better banding?

It all depends on the type of band. A WAA forced laterally translating band will sweep across the region with fairly uniform totals, because screw zones will move with the band. But a lateral quasi stationary band (like the last event) has the potential for subsidence to really screw the cold side of the heaviest lift.

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Improved quite a bit actually...but it was also perhaps one of the worst runs at 00z, so no surprise it is coming back in line with other guidance.

I know it’s erratic , but If it stayed East OTS this close in I would think it limits the west Goal post , good to see it sober up toward go time 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

That’s the key, where the best snow growth is. And it’s usually just above 700 mb, which is why we want the best fgen forcing there.

It all depends on the type of band. A WAA forced laterally translating band will sweep across the region with fairly uniform totals, because screw zones will move with the band. But a lateral quasi stationary band (like the last event) has the potential for subsidence to really screw the cold side of the heaviest lift.

I'm interested in what kind of early push of WAA we get, how far north it comes, and how vigorous.  Scott has referred to an initial weenie band, and I hope that makes it up into Central NH.

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