Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

I'll take the meat please.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this is going to be less disjointed in the end.

Only if the closer low becomes the dominant one sooner imo.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have a feeling there won't be a huge difference across the region. Between some fluff inland, and maybe lower ratio stuff, but higher QPF near coast. 

I actually like my spot for a potential jack...far enough east for good QPF but far enough west and a little elevation for decent ratios. We'll see though....interior SE MA near the usual suspects like Foxborough are primed too for some heavy bands and their few hundred feet will help ratios some.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I actually like my spot for a potential jack...far enough east for good QPF but far enough west and a little elevation for decent ratios. We'll see though....interior SE MA near the usual suspect like Foxborough are primed too for some heavy bands and their few hundred feet will help ratios some.

Yeah I could see that. If winds switch N quickly here, I think it would be pretty good too. But whatever....just happy to get a solid event.  

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this is going to be less disjointed in the end.

That’s what I’m thinking too. Mentioned this to SeymourSnow about an hour ago. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I could see that. If winds switch N quickly here, I think it would be pretty good too. But whatever....just happy to get a solid event.  

MPM could complain his way to a jackpot too there in Westborough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Only if the closer low becomes the dominant one sooner imo.

When two become one

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that band slapping Kevin in the rear, may be over you too.

A brief slappage here possibly. Longer and harder there. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When two become one

That might illicit a response from a certain Met who corresponds to Harvey.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We want that to optimize inflow.

The NAM actually had the opposite trend

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Seems like we still get the heavy band but it’s a bit quicker to go through here

I always thought the banding is almost always NW of modeling. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I'll take the meat please.

Oh you will…you will take the

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That might illicit a response from a certain Met who corresponds to Harvey.

I think there is also some involuntary correspondence with a certain frightened woman named Christine

[Jenkins]

Trying to learn more about FGEN products here. Would anybody care to briefly explain how to use the various FGEN products at varying heights to predict where banding develops? In other words, in a setup like this, should I be looking at 700mb FGEN, 850mb FGEN, 900-500mb average, 800-600mb average? I'm taking a wild guess and perhaps the layer(s) which is the closest layer at which DGZ is located in?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The NAM actually had the opposite trend

Something probably will surprise us. Hopefully for the better....but something likely will happen. I'm not sure guidance is correctly handling the dual low issue.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Jenkins said:

Trying to learn more about FGEN products here. Would anybody care to briefly explain how to use the various FGEN products at varying heights to predict where banding develops? In other words, in a setup like this, should I be looking at 700mb FGEN, 850mb FGEN, 900-500mb average, 800-600mb average? I'm taking a wild guess and perhaps the layer which is the closest layer at which DGZ is located in?

Usually banding is just N of best H7 fronto

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Jenkins said:

Trying to learn more about FGEN products here. Would anybody care to briefly explain how to use the various FGEN products at varying heights to predict where banding develops? In other words, in a setup like this, should I be looking at 700mb FGEN, 850mb FGEN, 900-500mb average, 800-600mb average? I'm taking a wild guess and perhaps the layer which is the closest layer at which DGZ is located in?

I usually take the 600-800 avg...often the best banding will end up on the NW edge of that. Not all the time, but frequently. modeling best fronto isn't the easiest thing for guidance...it's pretty easy to be off like 25 miles on a short term forecast...but obviously that can make a huge difference in amounts if someone was supposed to be under that but it ended up 25 miles east.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I usually take the 600-800 avg...often the best banding will end up on the NW edge of that. Not all the time, but frequently. modeling best fronto isn't the easiest thing for guidance...it's pretty easy to be off like 25 miles on a short term forecast...but obviously that can make a huge difference in amounts if someone was supposed to be under that but it ended up 25 miles east.

hope it moves 25 miles west I think ill be on the edge while you get nailed

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Jenkins said:

Trying to learn more about FGEN products here. Would anybody care to briefly explain how to use the various FGEN products at varying heights to predict where banding develops? In other words, in a setup like this, should I be looking at 700mb FGEN, 850mb FGEN, 900-500mb average, 800-600mb average? I'm taking a wild guess and perhaps the layer which is the closest layer at which DGZ is located in?

I tend to look at H7 more because that corresponds to the snow growth area typically. You typically want to be just on the colder side of the fronto packing shown. The atmosphere typically has a circulation up and over that packing, so you will typically see the band of heavy snow just on the colder side of that circulation. 

 

In the image below I circled where it might theoretically be in the snap shot.

[Baroclinic Zone]

15z RAP is locked in.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NWS 10% high end maps have introduced the possibility of a foot for someone.

[CoastalWx]

But Will is right, it could be higher or lower depending on the temperatures. A quick and dirty way of doing it is looking at temperature gradients. If 700mb looks warm and the DGZ is higher, look at the 500mb temps. Your nice banding probably is in between...say 600mb. You'll just need to interpolate a bit. 

[CoastalWx]

In my 700mb image, the temps near 700 are cold, so the band of snow probably is closer to the thermal packing.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

15z RAP is locked in.

Good run for the QPF queens...

 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I tend to look at H7 more because that corresponds to the snow growth area typically. You typically want to be just on the colder side of the fronto packing shown. The atmosphere typically has a circulation up and over that packing, so you will typically see the band of heavy snow just on the colder side of that circulation. 

 

In the image below I circled where it might theoretically be in the snap shot.

At some point, we just need to start saying "the climatologically favored area"

[JC-CT]

Just now, JC-CT said:

At some point, we just need to start saying "the climatologically favored area"

[George001]

NWS has always been on the more aggressive side even when the guidance looked really weak a couple days ago. Looks like they are doing a great job with this event. We will see tomorrow though.

[Jenkins]

Awesome, great info guys. Thanks!

[CoastalWx]

 

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air rises. You snow.

 

 

[PowderBeard]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

NWS 10% high end maps have introduced the possibility of a foot for someone.