Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[NeonPeon]

5 minutes ago, LovewellHemp said:

RI native chiming in. East bay and west bay have different meanings than Eastern and western RI. Any town that is on gansett bay is eastern RI. If East bay was considered the entirety of eastern RI, that would only account for like 1/10 of the state's land. That's not really how E/W dividing lines work. Anyway, I'm in Charlestown this year and feel like we should be celebrating the fact that we might actually be in the best spot for this "storm". It probably only happens one in every 30 or so NE winter events

If you draw a line through the middle of RI as far as its longitudinal boundaries, it won't split the state in half in terms of land mass either, because the state isn't a square.

Luckily? Glacially, the bay already does that, and it does a serviceable job of splitting the population, since almost nobody lives in the Northwestern half of the west bay.

I've been living here for over decade, and I've never heard anyone speak about east and west with regard to RI other than in terms of relation to the bay. Perhaps this is something that people on the west bay do, but people on the east bay don't. Which would only underscore the valid distinction, haha.

I don't think Charlestown is in the best place for this, but you're in a good spot and don't have to fret the P-type as is our wont. Enjoy the snow over there.  I feel like early January snow is almost a bonus here.

 

[Greg]

Last night I remembered commenting on the dual structure of that low, fighting for dominance.  We'll see what little hiccups can happen in the next 12 Hours or so before go time.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

If the convection south of Florida ends up being stronger than modeled, what would be the potential downstream effects?

A problem, You would want that weaker or not at all, Not looking to be the case.

[Baroclinic Zone]

The other NCEP hires models look good over eastern areas.  Cape looks best.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Is the geography lesson over yet?

[CoastalWx]

Any comments from those posting the Icon from 3 days ago and saying OTS? 

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Any comments from those posting the Icon from 3 days ago and saying OTS? 

 

Lol.

[PhineasC]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Any comments from those posting the Icon from 3 days ago and saying OTS? 

 

I think he ran out of posts.

[Lava Rock]

Email from Spectrum thinks we're getting severe weather from 2-4". Oh no! Run and hide. Prepare while you can. Seek shelter. More fear porn.

 

"Recent forecasts indicate severe weather may affect your area. As a result, we're preparing for Spectrum service outages. If you lose power, please contact your local power provider."

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

These QPF totals from Monday night's GFS run look a lot like that overnight Euro run. Heaviest totals SNJ, LI, RI, SEMA. Seems like guidance has been generally locked in for days now. 

 

Yeah, we are talking like a potential difference of 3" or so...big in the context of a projected advisory snowfall, but not so big in the macro view of things.

[JC-CT]

Granted, there was a brief period where the GFS and 12km NAM were on an island giving the whole sub less than 2", but they corrected pretty quick.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Email from Spectrum thinks we're getting severe weather from 2-4". Oh no! Run and hide. Prepare while you can. Seek shelter. More fear porn.

 

"Recent forecasts indicate severe weather may affect your area. As a result, we're preparing for Spectrum service outages. If you lose power, please contact your local power provider."

What a joke. More Fake news. 

[MJO812]

Rgem is pretty close to tainting Boston 

[dryslot]

Looks like reggie wants to mix the cape on 12z

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Any comments from those posting the Icon from 3 days ago and saying OTS? 

 

anyone posting icon should be banned permanently

[WinterWolf]

I don’t know, maybe it’s me m, but the stuff off Florida looks anemic for sure, and our storm taking shape over Tennessee is looking quite healthy and robust…thinking that may bode in our favor going forward…? 

[JC-CT]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Rgem is pretty close to tainting Boston 

it's pretty similar, maybe slightly improved at the end vs 6z

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Looks like reggie wants to mix the cape on 12z

Win for Scoots if so...

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Looks like reggie wants to mix the cape on 12z

I like that look for here. 

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I don’t know, maybe it’s me m, but the stuff off Florida looks endemic for sure, and our storm taking shape over Tennessee is looking quite healthy abs robust…thinking that may bode in our favor going forward…? 

That's what you want, But it seems like the convection blows up as it moves north.

[eduggs]

54 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Man, this storm is wobbling around more than a dingy in the West Bay on a SE swell, lol…

It has seemed very steady to me. Run after run after run the focus has been SNJ, LI, the southeastern half of SNE and then EMA with a bonus ending. Nothing has deviated from that for days. There have been some minor shifts within the ensemble spread only meaningful to QPF queens, but overall this has been locked for days.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks like reggie wants to mix the cape on 12z

Tragic….

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I don’t know, maybe it’s me m, but the stuff off Florida looks endemic for sure, and our storm taking shape over Tennessee is looking quite healthy abs robust…thinking that may bode in our favor going forward…? 

I don't think it matters how robust it is for me and you, it's all about when the transfer occurs, we need that to trend earlier for us.. bc if it doesn't we get the 7-10 split. the good runs pulled the stuff from the west right over us plus the developing coastal moisture.. 

[tavwtby]

7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Email from Spectrum thinks we're getting severe weather from 2-4". Oh no! Run and hide. Prepare while you can. Seek shelter. More fear porn.

 

"Recent forecasts indicate severe weather may affect your area. As a result, we're preparing for Spectrum service outages. If you lose power, please contact your local power provider."

in the era of fear and panic, a few inches of snow warrants severe warnings... enjoy the snow everyone, whatever falls, should be fun now casting

[MaineJayhawk]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Tragic….

So heartless ... 

[Digityman]

14 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

27 minutes ago, LovewellHemp said:

RI native chiming in. East bay and west bay have different meanings than Eastern and western RI. Any town that is on gansett bay is eastern RI. If East bay was considered the entirety of eastern RI, that would only account for like 1/10 of the state's land. That's not really how E/W dividing lines work. Anyway, I'm in Charlestown this year and feel like we should be celebrating the fact that we might actually be in the best spot for this "storm". It probably only happens one in every 30 or so NE winter events

If you draw a line through the middle of RI as far as its longitudinal boundaries, it won't split the state in half in terms of land mass either, because the state isn't a square.

Where is Rhode Island?   And why did it become so important all of a sudden.   /sarcasim.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I don't think it matters how robust it is for me and you, it's all about when the transfer occurs, we need that to trend earlier for us.. bc if it doesn't we get the 7-10 split. the good runs pulled the stuff from the west right over us plus the developing coastal moisture.. 

I was just meaning the robbing of the moisture from it chasing any convection off shore that’s all. If it doesn’t chase..it gets going quicker and closer, and the conveyors don’t get impeded…right? 

[bristolri_wx]

13 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

If you draw a line through the middle of RI as far as its longitudinal boundaries, it won't split the state in half in terms of land mass either, because the state isn't a square.

Luckily? Glacially, the bay already does that, and it does a serviceable job of splitting the population, since almost nobody lives in the Northwestern half of the west bay.

I've been living here for over decade, and I've never heard anyone speak about east and west with regard to RI other than in terms of relation to the bay. Perhaps this is something that people on the west bay do, but people on the east bay don't. Which would only underscore the valid distinction, haha.

I don't think Charlestown is in the best place for this, but you're in a good spot and don't have to fret the P-type as is our wont. Enjoy the snow over there.  I feel like early January snow is almost a bonus here.

 

I was born in RI and have lived here all my life. While East Bay is a commonly used term, no one really uses West Bay to describe anything in the state.

[tavwtby]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I don't think it matters how robust it is for me and you, it's all about when the transfer occurs, we need that to trend earlier for us.. bc if it doesn't we get the 7-10 split. the good runs pulled the stuff from the west right over us plus the developing coastal moisture.. 

yeah, what I worried about, we'll be sucking exhaust with flurries and sand, while initial thump west and best forcing east, doesn't appear that will happen with this one though, we'll see, we all just want some white ffs! it's winter.

[WeatherHappens]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem is pretty close to tainting Boston 

now that would be funny