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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


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26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Could the unexpected intensity and location of today’s storm have an affect on the ultimate path of the next one?

That's a complex answer. Lol... ( hey, consider who you're asking )  Short answer, I don't believe so.

Long answer:  Personally... that phenomenon you mention, I've often had 'chicken vs egg' problems with that.  I think that perception has that the wrong direction.  Basically, change was already taking place, if perhaps "intangibly," before it manifests on charts.  Then, a storm event materializes because of and sometimes on top of the emergence threshold of the pattern modality.  Here's the thing, because it wasn't coherently seen, that gives the illusion that the storm- event was the cause...  It's really the other way around.  

So if you can figure out how to parse that paragraph of conceptual jargon out, and formulate an impression of what I'm trying to say, I'd be very proud of you... 

In this case, The governing mechanics of the Jan 7 system is entering the hemisphere during a pretty significant whole-scale reshuffling of the pattern.  Really...from well west of the Date Line and the plastic island of the bounding Pac, ...all the way around to Greenland,  today vs the 300 hour range end up bearing much less comparative likeness. 

That really begins to occur from Wed ...Thursday on, within which this Jan 7 deal plays its cards and quite likely gets a physical enhancement, too.

"What ever happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas"   ... On the other side of that Wed/Thu pattern boundary/reshuffle, think 'removing the memory' of the previous regime.  

 

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19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why are we fighting over an ensemble position 5 days out?   Don’t you think +/- 150 miles is still on the table?

Because it's 46* on January 2nd, cloudy and misty for how many days in a row, and the ground is muddy and brown.  In short, there's nothing better to do.

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