Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It would probably stay more offshore but it would track closer to the cape i would think.

Right...cape track is more in line with my original idea from first call, which would send the coastal front up here.

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Continued nice trends for you guys EOR, for us WOR this has been a disastrous start to the 12z suite.

Yep. That convective feature kills us.  Hope it’s overdoing it but we are now under 24 hours. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray is sitting nice I think. As much as he has lamented.

Yeah longitude is actually more important in SNE than latitude in this system.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ha, congrats Ray on 3K. 

Ha, 12k jacks my old hood in Wilmington..9.4

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Yep. That convective feature kills us.  Hope it’s overdoing it but we are now under 24 hours. 

Something like that may not be resolved until the 12th hour.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

If the NAM didn’t chase that convection, that would have been a big solution for almost everyone.

Million dollar question is, how real is that?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ha, 12k jacks my old hood in Wilmington..9.4

Same with 3k...10.5

[drstuess]

The dual low, elongation really messes up the wind field and southerly fetch for wave making. Its been such a bad fall, winter so far wave wise...

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right...cape track is more in line with my original idea from first call, which would send the coastal front up here.

Its clear here, Its gets pulled towards that convection as the model can't reconcile where it wants the SLP, You can see where it would be if that convection wasn't there, But at this point, I'm thinking its real it keeps showing up, But if its not, There are still changes coming.

[Spanks45]

19 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

I guess I worry a bit about getting stuck between the precip west of us and the low taking too long to develop to our SE. The progressive flow is going to leave someone stuck in between the handoff. I have noticed that happening  over the years I have lived here in CT, until you get east of the river out towards RI where the coastal precip takes over...

I made this comment yesterday and will continue to have this worry for us west of the river on this particular storm....still thinking 1-3 around here, hope I am wrong though

[tiger_deF]

Regardless of the outcome this is going to be a fascinating storm to nowcast, especially with the interaction of the dual lows/convection

[PhineasC]

The NAMs were definitely better for parts of NH than 06z. Even tossed some precip all the way up to the eastern whites.

[WinterWolf]

I’m thinking most CT peeps are gonna be fine…unless you’re on the extreme NY/CT boarder.  
 

I’m liking a solid 5-6” in my area(central CT West of River) from this.  I think in the end this will come together fine for most.  That’s my call. 

[radarman]

I think the general idea that you'll run an LP center offshore while a second one develops close in under the primary U/L forcing seems pretty reasonable and not likely a model phantom.  Out this way the 3km solution isn't bad verbatim, but we'd almost like to see that convection rocket even further east and faster and let that second low have some space to breathe.  Of course, if the initial LP were a model phantom, that wouldn't be terrible either.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I made this comment yesterday and will continue to have this worry for us west of the river on this particular storm....still thinking 1-3 around here, hope I am wrong though

It’s why I haven’t moved from 2-4” for wct. I’ve noted the possibility, and a decent one at that, that it could be 4-6”.

[LovewellHemp]

32 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Bay_(Rhode_Island)

 

Narragansett Bay divides the state of Rhode Island into two parts. The term East Bay refers to communities on the east side of the bay, including Bristol, Warren, Barrington, Tiverton, Little Compton, Newport, Middletown, Portsmouth and Jamestown. The term West Bay refers to communities on the west side of the bay (the mainland), such as Warwick, Cranston and East Greenwich. Jamestown and the towns on Aquidneck Island are sometimes known as "The Islands" along with Block Island.

Mainlanders are welcome to go edit their own personal truth!

RI native chiming in. East bay and west bay have different meanings than Eastern and western RI. Any town that is on gansett bay is eastern RI. If East bay was considered the entirety of eastern RI, that would only account for like 1/10 of the state's land. That's not really how E/W dividing lines work. Anyway, I'm in Charlestown this year and feel like we should be celebrating the fact that we might actually be in the best spot for this "storm". It probably only happens one in every 30 or so NE winter events

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m thinking most CT peeps are gonna be fine…unless you’re on the extreme NY/CT boarder.  
 

I’m liking a solid 5-6” in my area(central CT West of River) from this.  I think in the end this will come together fine for most.  That’s my call. 

I always view you as WCT because you’re WOR so you’re part of our crew ha but yea you’re definitely CCT. 4-6” is a safe call there, agree.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s why I haven’t moved from 2-4” for wct. I’ve noted the possibility, and a decent one at that, that it could be 4-6”.

Solid reasoning for sure. Obviously you guys are both west of me, but I feel if this gets going, it’s gonna throw precip back pretty far west. And if we can get into any banding(?), then it’s even better obviously. I guess we’ll see how it all shakes out soon. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its clear here, Its gets pulled towards that convection as the model can't reconcile where it wants the SLP, You can see where it would be if that convection wasn't there, But at this point, I'm thinking its real it keeps showing up, But if its not, There are still changes coming.

I’ve noticed that it finally has a closed contour just east of NJ, when no prior run had it, so it’s definitely beginning to phase out the east convection a bit. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Solid reasoning for sure. Obviously you guys are both west of me, but I feel if this gets going, it’s gonna throw precip back pretty far west. And if we can get into any banding(?), then it’s even better obviously. I guess we’ll see how it all shakes out soon. 

It has to get going quicker then the 12z guidance today. That’s the issue for us today, gets going too late. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It has to get going quicker then the 12z guidance today. That’s the issue for us today, gets going too late. 

I think it’s gonna get going…just my gut, but I’m feeling in the end it’s gonna be ok for most CT peeps.  I’m going with that as my call.   We’ll find out soon enough.  

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve noticed that it finally has a closed contour just east of NJ, when no prior run had it, so it’s definitely beginning to phase out the east convection a bit. 

3k has it too.

[JC-CT]

Nice nowcast opportunity here watching the organization of the convection off Florida.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I agree the dual low structure will be there.  I'd like to see the western one be more dominant on today's modeling.  Hopefully it doesn't mess with the precip shield that much.

[tiger_deF]

If the convection south of Florida ends up being stronger than modeled, what would be the potential downstream effects?

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I always view you as WCT because you’re WOR so you’re part of our crew ha but yea you’re definitely CCT. 4-6” is a safe call there, agree.

Ya I’m western CT with regards to the River idea, and I’m with you guys for sure lol…but as you said,  I’m definitely more central when you take/look at CT as a whole. Whether that makes a bit of a difference with this one, who the hell knows?  

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I agree the dual low structure will be there.  I'd like to see the western one be more dominant on today's modeling.  Hopefully it doesn't mess with the precip shield that much.

That is always the concern with these, Convection more times then not screw it up, Its usually more harm then help as i have found even though it should work the other way too.

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

 

These QPF totals from Monday night's GFS run look a lot like that overnight Euro run. Heaviest totals SNJ, LI, RI, SEMA. Seems like guidance has been generally locked in for days now. 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

If the convection south of Florida ends up being stronger than modeled, what would be the potential downstream effects?

it would probably pull it east

[tiger_deF]

The past few hourly HRRR runs appear to have the low off the coast slightly more intense, and minor shifts to the west for that feature