Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Run is tossed because of that

[CoastalWx]

NAm is rather wonky. 

[Sn0waddict]

LOL 

[PhineasC]

Doesn’t change much in the end. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

NAM gone chasing that zit of vorticity off the mid-atlt coast.

Yeah that's interesting, although they all have it to some extent

[ORH_wxman]

That is still widespread warning snows on the NAM east ORH-Ginxy line despite some of the wonky convection-chasing

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Doesn’t change much in the end. 

That zit robs the conveyor process from getting going better and screws the western areas.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Doesn’t change much in the end. 

Its better than 06z here.

[ice1972]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

LOL 

lol what a suck hole........toss

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its better than 06z here.

Decent signal up your way i think. 

[MJO812]

Further west

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its better than 06z here.

Yeah throws some precip up here too but looks too weird for me to buy. 

[Not me in VT]

12 years lurking in here, feel like I know all the major players, hahaha, are we going to run out of time with this west/more amped trend? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah throws some precip up here too but looks too weird for me to buy. 

I would be more aggressive west of where this implies.

[PhineasC]

Just now, Not me in VT said:

12 years lurking in here, feel like I know all the major players, hahaha, are we going to run out of time with this west/more amped trend? 

I would say VT is out of time.

[tavwtby]

so, what's causing the wobble on off runs with the nam? is it that convection offshore?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Not me in VT said:

12 years lurking in here, feel like I know all the major players, hahaha, are we going to run out of time with this west/more amped trend? 

No need to sit in the dark corner and watch....come on out and play!

[dryslot]

Always some small nuance to mess up the track of these systems, You get two to go in your favor then your stuck with another.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Despite the track still pulling East as we have a  dual low structure due to that persistent lead vorticity but forcing was stronger on NW side of the dual low . Not sure the reason Or if that makes sense (Will?) but you can clearly see heavier precip on NW side of the dual low structure this run even thou track is still consistently being pulled East by the lead vort

[dryslot]

3K a bit better though.

[Not me in VT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No need to sit in the dark corner and watch....come on out and play!

Will do! 

[CoastalWx]

Thinking 4-7 here for the time being.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Despite the track still pulling East as we have a  dual low structure due to that persistent lead vorticity but forcing was stronger on NW side of the dual low . Not sure the reason Or if that makes sense (Will?) but you can clearly see heavier precip on NW side of the dual low structure this run even thou track is still consistently being pulled East by the lead vort

That is where that slp should be, If you resolve that convection, This would be tracking well west, That's the only thing saving this right now from hugging or just offshore.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Not me in VT said:

12 years lurking in here, feel like I know all the major players, hahaha, are we going to run out of time with this west/more amped trend? 

Come inside the circus.

I don’t it is a matter of time per say but moreso whether or not the convection chasing is legit. If not, then the final result is more amped. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

That is where that slp should be, If you resolve that convection, This would be tracking well west, That's the only thing saving this right now from hugging.

Either way is fine with me....decent shot at deformation as is, coastal front if it decides to hug.

[CoastalWx]

Ray is sitting nice I think. As much as he has lamented.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Either way is fine with me....decent shot at deformation as is, coastal front if it decides to hug.

It would probably stay more offshore but it would track closer to the cape i would think.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That is where that slp should be, If you resolve that convection, This would be tracking well west, That's the only thing saving this right now from hugging.

I get that . Just wondering if the further East low was less dominating this run I.E why did heavy precip fields materialize further NW this run and is it believeable. It’s not 7H closing off as this doesn’t occur till it’s into GOM further . 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Continued nice trends for you guys EOR, for us WOR this has been a disastrous start to the 12z suite.

[CoastalWx]

Ha, congrats Ray on 3K.