Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[ineedsnow]

6z NAM a little east with the best stuff

[The 4 Seasons]

Warnings up and new watches for MA, advisories up for CT. 

[ORH_wxman]

Went to bed before euro but that was not what I was hoping to see. 06z NAM suite was a nudge east too. We’re still west of the 12z suite so that part is good but it seems we’ve at least temporarily halted the NW trend. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Southern CT is in a advisory for 4-6 same amount the watches were for. Idc, just think it's kinda funny.

Stop stealing my pink polygons! 

[ORH_wxman]

06z reggie went east again too. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Kev Ray and Forky for the win? Of course tip for the thread.

I don’t ever want to be associated with that person down there . Just glad this all worked out for everyone. I may need to adjust 4-8” up 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z reggie went east again too. 

Big 12z runs coming 

[The 4 Seasons]

I like where we are right now I'll have to look closer when I can get on a pc but I thought the 6z hrrr and 3knam look great for ct. Nam was paltry qpf wise but not really worried.  4-8 for most of CT seems pretty reasonable. Could forsee a stripe of 8-10 in e CT. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I like where we are right now I'll have to look closer when I can get on a pc but I thought the 6z hrrr and 3knam look great for ct. Nam was paltry qpf wise but not really worried.  4-8 for most of CT seems pretty reasonable. Could forsee a stripe of 8-10 in e CT. 

There’s going to be some pretty intense snow in that band for a while I think. Question is how long the good banding lasts…that’ll be the difference between advisory snow and solid warning snows. 

[Damage In Tolland]

For us pack fetish fans.. these next couple of weeks should give us an extended period of snowpack . Tonight’s and Fridays snows will provide a nice base and starting point . Looking forward to a fun few weeks while it lasts .

[The 4 Seasons]

Latest okx map, 4-6 all of southern CT reasonable

[MJO812]

Gfs is nice 

[The 4 Seasons]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s going to be some pretty intense snow in that band for a while I think. Question is how long the good banding lasts…that’ll be the difference between advisory snow and solid warning snows. 

I can't speak for recent models i.e. 0z/6z but when I looked at 12z gfs/Nam I noticed the dgz was pretty narrow and realitively low with the best lift above it. At least for the CT sites I looked at. I saw a post from oceanstwx about it earlier. What are your thoughts? I imagine the better runs like the 3k Nam and hrrr look better. 

[moneypitmike]

In case folks haven't looked.  Happy where I fall on that map.

[ineedsnow]

GFS has a nice banding feature.. hope we can push that a few miles west but better overall

[The 4 Seasons]

Yeah Gfs nice bump up /west. Not to mention this interesting shape over CT.. 

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah Gfs nice bump up /west. Not to mention this interesting shape over CT.. 

 

[TalcottWx]

6 hours ago, PhineasC said:

LOL don't spike the football yet. 06z could cause a fumble.

We generally get a good idea 100hr out... Then a waffle in between... Then a day or so before it comes back to a solution... Seems to always be similar process to that... I think that's why you saw a lot of high giving by some of the more seasoned posters. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah Gfs nice bump up /west. Not to mention this interesting shape over CT.. 

 

We dong 

[Johnno]

16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah Gfs nice bump up /west. Not to mention this interesting shape over CT.. 

 

Nice I84 band there, we take 

[TalcottWx]

6 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ant melted earlier…and it worked. Sad there are innocent people in jail today though.

That's officer Seymour

Officer Seymour butts to you

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

That's officer Seymour

Officer Seymour butts to you

[TalcottWx]

Meteorology not modelogy, repeat after me..... It's coming

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z reggie went east again too. 

Scooter knows cancel?

[The 4 Seasons]

Anyone else noticed that almost all NCEP data has halted at 12Z for NAM/GFS/HRRR. All the sites that have graphics for these models seem to be working fine but everything that has point data, bufkit data, banding hasnt updated since 12Z in most cases.

BUFKIT data is all stopped around 12Z: PSU Bufkit Data Distribution

Coolwx has nothing for the HRRR/NAM/GFS since 12Z, GFS has 00Z but no 18Z NCEP Model Time-Series (BUFR) Forecast Hourly Weather Data (coolwx.com)

this site i use for banding hasnt updated NAM since 12Z moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

Also i noticed when i click on TT for a sounding it says "model run not available" even though the graphics are available.

 

 

[Snowlover11]

pants tent inbound.  our biggest snowfall this year!

[ineedsnow]

35 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah Gfs nice bump up /west. Not to mention this interesting shape over CT.. 

 

penetrating deep over Tolland congrats

[MaineJayhawk]

Teabag in Tolland?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m pretty surprised and disappointed west trends didn’t materialize. I think we are out of time. This event is what it is at this point 

[NorEastermass128]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m pretty surprised and disappointed west trends didn’t materialize. I think we are out of time. This event is what it is at this point 

I wake up, see this post and think everything went to crap. I then see I’m under a WSW for 5-8” and WeatherBug shows 6-10”. I go back a page and see that the GFS is a good storm. Man, we need to be more positive.