Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Welp, I stay up for the Euro I guess.  Should have gone to bed an hour ago.  lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The GFS correcting west is a big red flag for the eastern end of the envelope 

I agree and it was not a small shift.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

UKMET, CMC, RGEM, ICON all worse at 00Z than previous runs. I wouldn't say the NW shift is a foregone conclusion yet. 

This is still up in the air 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I agree and it was not a small shift.  

Honestly the gf’s sucks. 
it’s the euro and a big run at 0z 

[IowaStorm05]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Another sh*t model.  When everything was mucked up they were all in on the west train/stronger system idea, now as things are becoming clear they jump the opposite way. Toss em for sure. 

But I don’t have the Kuchera ratio on that. Add 25 per cent to your output snowfall

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Here's my new map. 

That weenie needs to grow a half inch west young man. The tip needs to go between thy Eastern mounds.

[Greg]

"But I don’t have the Kuchera ratio on that. Add 25 per cent to your output snowfall"

I never use the Kuchera, I found it exaggerates the fluff factor potential a little too much.

[The 4 Seasons]

This storm and model runs are giving me ptsd flashbacks of 2/7/21

[IowaStorm05]

6 minutes ago, Greg said:

"But I don’t have the Kuchera ratio on that. Add 25 per cent to your output snowfall"

I never use the Kuchera, I found it exaggerates the fluff factor potential a little too much.

Oh sorry. I just want to find a way to make it better.

See I’m a little traumatized still from November 2018. A blizzard was forecast for Iowa and Illinois and 4 days out it looked like it was gonna be a 9 inch blast. Until to my horror, the model runs subsequently shifted southeast until Des Moines was just outside the north cutoff. 30 miles to our south had 18 inches at Osceola. 6 inches even one county tier down. I saw a few flakes and that was it.

[Greg]

10 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Oh sorry. I just want to find a way to make it better.

See I’m a little traumatized still from November 2018. A blizzard was forecast for Iowa and Illinois and 4 days out it looked like it was gonna be a 9 inch blast. Until to my horror, the model runs subsequently shifted southeast until Des Moines was just outside the north cutoff. 30 miles to our south had 18 inches at Osceola. 6 inches even one county tier down. I saw a few flakes and that was it.

Now that my friend, would piss me off to.

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is still up in the air 

I don't think so.

[weathafella]

Euro maybe 25 miles east of 18Z.  Not much difference in sensible wx.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weathafella said:

Euro maybe 25 miles east of 18Z.  Not much difference in sensible wx.

So held serve basically…

[weathafella]

Definitely not as good as 18Z.  But not bad.  is trend over or is it on holdf?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Definitely not as good as 18Z.  But not bad.  is trend over or is it on holdf?

Was it any weaker or just East?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Definitely not as good as 18Z.  But not bad.  is trend over or is it on holdf?

Man that model has gone down hill…can’t carry the same solution two times in a row. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Definitely not as good as 18Z.  But not bad.  is trend over or is it on holdf?

6z it’ll go bonkers again….

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Trough didn't look as sharp on the Euro but it's also late and I'm tired.  Definitely a bit of a move East from 18z though.

[wxsniss]

Differences from 12z looks to me noise

In fact, this run continues the Euro 6z/18z || 0z/12z waffle, with the former more robust. That has been going on for over a day now... must reflect something about how these are run. So expect 6z to come in more robust again.

 

[ice1972]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ok new rule. 

let’s nip the ‘coming in hot’ euphemism in the bud. 

That’s actually one of my favorites……it works well in a lot of cases

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So held serve basically…

Yea, that is how I consider it. Off hours are always more amped.

[ice1972]

Lol when this is “the storm” of the season…..locked…..it sucks in here

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is how I consider it. Off hours are always more amped.

Yeah it didn't change much.  But i think it comes even closer than 18Z when it's all said and done.  I'm not waiting up for 6Z NAM.  Got to prepare for early rising Friday to see it snowing.  That's what it's come to this year.....

[ice1972]

Is it weird how everyone just checked out tonight lol…..as a veteran here I get it…..the “this is it for the season” idea looms very big……that’s gonna suck lol

[BombsAway1288]

18 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Is it weird how everyone just checked out tonight lol…..as a veteran here I get it…..the “this is it for the season” idea looms very big……that’s gonna suck lol

If a 6” snowstorm is all we see for the season, that’ll be an all time low at least for my generation 

[ineedsnow]

6z HRRR a tad west  saving some bridge jumpers.. nice low end warning for most

[ineedsnow]

8 to 10 for eastern areas on the HRRR

[The 4 Seasons]

Hrrr even a bit better than 00Z. Warning snows for CT. It's notable how consistent its been in the long range i.e. 18-48hrs for this storm and the Monday Mid Atlantic storm. It's usually a hot mess in the extended hrrrx range. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Using my phone to look at models is a real pita. But here's some porn. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

20 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Using my phone to look at models is a real pita. But here's some porn. 

Nice, now maybe I can get some sleep. Hoping I wake up to find the other 6Z’s fall in line.