Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[78Blizzard]

Looks like we are getting some of those positive surprises tonight that I mentioned earlier.  One thing is for sure, though.  Whatever pack we get isn't going away anytime soon.  Sunday only 35-36F here for highs and we don't sniff freezing for over a week.

[Greg]

The CMC is a warning to us that there's a limit to how far north and west this can come. People need to keep that in the back of their collective minds.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:30 AM, DavisStraight said:

I'll probably get 4 or 5 but that's enough to use my new snowblower 

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Absolutely.  
 

Nothing wrong with 4-6”.  We gladly take. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:31 AM, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely.  
 

Nothing wrong with 4-6”.  We gladly take. 

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I had us and still do for 2-4”. 0z has been good no doubt but I’ll need another cycle to confirm the bump to 4-6”.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:31 AM, Greg said:

The CMC is a warning to us that there's a limit to how far north and west this can come. People need to keep that in the back of their collective minds.

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The CMC is never a warning…it’s only a sign that it’s a lousy model period. 

[weathafella]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:31 AM, Greg said:

The CMC is a warning to us that there's a limit to how far north and west this can come. People need to keep that in the back of their collective minds.

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I think it’s a reminder that cmc is an awful model even if it happens to get this right.  The only thing limiting the trend is time remaining.

[Greg]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:34 AM, WinterWolf said:

The CMC is never a warning…it’s only a sign that it’s a lousy model period. 

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  On 1/6/2022 at 4:34 AM, weathafella said:

I think it’s a reminder that cmc is an awful model even if it happens to get this right.  The only thing limiting the trend is time remaining.

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This may be true but still, it shows us what can happen.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:34 AM, WinterWolf said:

The CMC is never a warning…it’s only a sign that it’s a lousy model period. 

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I would def agree 

Just saying it was bad and If I recall it’s usually amped 

 

[George001]

The Canadian is still 4-6 in eastern mass at 10:1 ratios (and other guidance like the NAMis more aggressive with 6-8). I’ve read that when taking the snow growth profile into account it’s possible we could see 15:1 or even as high as 20:1 in heavy banding. If the higher snow ratios end up panning out, even if QPF isn’t crazy high the snow totals would be higher than expected, like during the superbowl storm last year. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:34 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I had us and still do for 2-4”. 0z has been good no doubt but I’ll need another cycle to confirm the bump to 4-6”.

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I think we are good and solid for 4” for sure with the way this is shaping up. Maybe we bump up a bit too like you said if the next cycle comes in nice? 

[Greg]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:37 AM, George001 said:

The Canadian is still 4-6 in eastern mass at 10:1 ratios (and other guidance like the NAMis more aggressive with 6-8). I’ve read that when taking the snow growth profile into account it’s possible we could see 15:1 or even as high as 20:1 in heavy banding. If the higher snow ratios end up panning out, even if QPF isn’t crazy high the snow totals would be higher than expected, like during the superbowl storm last year.

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I really don't think we will get a 15-20:1 ratio, but 12-13:1 is not totally out of the question. Need to keep things on the reasonable side.

[IowaStorm05]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:18 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Combine a an innate interest in winter weather with OCD and a yearning for mindfulness and you get 33 page winter outlooks.

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Dang I thought my 10 page deal about the climate nuances of Nevada that I whipped out on the fly was big.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:34 AM, weathafella said:

I think it’s a reminder that cmc is an awful model even if it happens to get this right.  The only thing limiting the trend is time remaining.

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You gonna be up for Euro Jerry?  

[weathafella]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:43 AM, WinterWolf said:

You gonna be up for Euro Jerry?  

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It’s my job!  So yes.  We’ll have a verdict early-probably by 1am or a few minutes after.

[Zeus]

  On 1/6/2022 at 1:46 AM, weathafella said:

You left us?   Back to EE land?

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  On 1/6/2022 at 1:46 AM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Holy shit!  How you been my friend?

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  On 1/6/2022 at 1:54 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where are you? YOU are MISSED

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Hi friends. You are missed, too. Moved back to New Jersey last year. Long story. Important part is I’m ****ing thriving. Twenty minutes from the beach. The winters down here won’t do, though, so I figure I’ll need a cabin at some point. I’ll be in Mass every now and again for work; will send up a flare. Anyhow, don’t want to muck up a good thread with my rambling. This one looks ripe for good ol’ Ess Enn EEe. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:44 AM, weathafella said:

It’s my job!  So yes.  We’ll have a verdict early-probably by 1am or a few minutes after.

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Ok maybe I’ll check in quick to see what we have.

[weathafella]

Uncle back on the sauce 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:38 AM, WinterWolf said:

I think we are good and solid for 4” for sure with the way this is shaping up. Maybe we bump up a bit too like you said if the next cycle comes in nice? 

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That’s the plan. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Warnings and weenies flying everywhere in the sky

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:07 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Right to warnings with the red skies in morning?

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[PhineasC]

Well UKMET is a miss.

 

[bishbish777]

UKMET, CMC, RGEM, ICON all worse at 00Z than previous runs. I wouldn't say the NW shift is a foregone conclusion yet. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:53 AM, PhineasC said:

Well UKMET is a miss.

 

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Toss.

[Greg]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:54 AM, bishbish777 said:

UKMET, CMC, RGEM, ICON all worse at 00Z than previous runs. I wouldn't say the NW shift is a foregone conclusion yet. 

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Just like I pointed out recently. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

All of those models blow biggies

[PhineasC]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:54 AM, bishbish777 said:

UKMET, CMC, RGEM, ICON all worse at 00Z than previous runs. I wouldn't say the NW shift is a foregone conclusion yet. 

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The JV models, but yes they are a camp for sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:56 AM, Greg said:

Just like I pointed out recently. 

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If the euro slides east, then I'll be more concerned.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If the euro slides east, then I'll be more concerned.

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That would be funny especially after scooter already high fived himself. 

[Greg]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If the euro slides east, then I'll be more concerned.

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Correct, same here my friend.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:53 AM, PhineasC said:

Well UKMET is a miss.

 

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  On 1/6/2022 at 4:56 AM, Greg said:

Just like I pointed out recently. 

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Another sh*t model.  When everything was mucked up they were all in on the west train/stronger system idea, now as things are becoming clear they jump the opposite way. Toss em for sure. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/6/2022 at 4:59 AM, WinterWolf said:

 

Another sh*t model.  When everything was mucked up they were all in on the west train/stronger system idea, now as things are becoming clear they jump the opposite way. Toss em for sure. 

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The GFS correcting west is a big red flag for the eastern end of the envelope